Bitcoin's Five-Wave Adjustment Nears End, Opportunities Emerge in HYPE Support Zone | Invited Analysis

Odaily星球日报Published on 2026-06-29Last updated on 2026-06-29

Abstract

**Bitcoin's Five-Wave Adjustment Nears End, HYPE Support Zone Presents Opportunity | Guest Analysis** This week, Bitcoin (BTC) is in the final stage of a five-wave corrective structure. The formation of 'Endpoint 44' is key: a level above $58,110 suggests a high probability of a technical rebound, leading likely to wide-range consolidation. A break below $58,110 without bullish divergence warrants caution for further downside. Mid-term bearish positions are maintained at 20%, with 30% of capital reserved for short-term scalping opportunities based on predefined support/resistance levels and three scenario-based plans (A/B/C). Simultaneously, HYPE has entered the 55-56 segment of its own five-wave correction from its $76.94 high. If 'Endpoint 56' forms above the prior low (Endpoint 54), creating a double-bottom pattern, a rebound is significantly likely. A light long position (under 30% allocation) can be considered upon stabilization in the support zone. Last week's BTC short-term strategy, guided by proprietary quantitative models, successfully executed two short trades (1x leverage), yielding a total return of approximately 6.21%. The market move validated the prior weekly forecast of a retest towards the $59,100 support. **Core Trading Views Summary:** * **BTC:** Focus on the formation of 'Endpoint 44'. A scenario above $58,110 allows for tentative longs. Key resistances: $60,900-$62,300, ~$65,500, $67,300-$69,500. Key supports: ~$58,100, ~$55,000. * **HYPE:** Moni...

This week, BTC is currently in the final stage of a five-wave adjustment structure. The formation position of "Endpoint 44" will determine the short-term direction—if above 58,110, the probability of a rebound is high; if below and without bullish divergence, be alert to further breakdown. We have preset three operational plans (A/B/C). Medium-term short positions are maintained at 20%, while short-term positions reserve 30% for price difference opportunities.

Meanwhile, HYPE has initiated a five-wave adjustment from its high of 76.94 and is currently operating in the 55-56 segment. If "Endpoint 56" is higher than the previous low, forming a double bottom, the probability of a rebound is significant; after stabilizing in the support zone, light long positions can be tested, with positions strictly controlled below 30%.

For the complete structural analysis, interpretation of quantitative model signals, and specific operational plans, please refer to the full text of this week's market review.

Summary of This Week's Core Trading Views

  • BTC Hourly Trend Structure Analysis (Detailed in Part 1)
  • BTC Market Forecast and Mid/Short-term Trading Strategies for This Week (Detailed in Part 2)
  • HYPE Hourly Trend Structure Analysis (Detailed in Part 3)
  • HYPE Market Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategies for This Week (Detailed in Part 4)

Market Verification of Last Week's Trading Strategies and Core Views

  • BTC Short-term Trading Performance: Bitcoin completed two short-term short trades last week (1x leverage), successfully achieving a profit of approximately 6.21%. (Detailed in Part 5)
  • BTC Market Trend Forecast Verification: In the previous weekly review, we forecasted (as shown in Figure 1) that if "Endpoint 41" could not hold above the lower channel line, the probability of the market retesting the previous low support at 59,100 USD was high. Currently, the overall market movement validates this view.

1. In-depth Analysis of Bitcoin's Hourly Trend Structure

Figure 1 Bitcoin _4-hour K-line Chart

1 As shown in (Figure 1): The previous weekly review clearly pointed out that segment (40-41) was a pullback confirmation after breaking below the lower line of the short-term rising channel (blue channel). If "Endpoint 41" could not regain and stabilize above the lower channel line, the trend would weaken, increasing the probability of a retest of the previous low support at 59,100 USD. The chart shows that last week's adjustment touched a low of 58,110 USD before finding short-term support.

2 From the 4-hour cycle analysis, the oversold rebound that started from the low of 59,100 USD on June 6th was confirmed to have ended at "Endpoint 39" (67,300 USD).

Figure 2 Bitcoin _4-hour Chart

3 As shown in (Figure 2): Starting from "Endpoint 39", the market entered a clear 5-wave adjustment structure (i.e., from Endpoint 39 to Endpoint 44), and is currently operating in the (43-44) adjustment segment.

The final position of "Endpoint 44" will be key for the short-term direction:

  • If "Endpoint 44" is above 58,110 USD: A relatively strong technical rebound is expected, likely followed by wide-range box consolidation.
  • If "Endpoint 44" is below 58,110 USD and a bullish momentum divergence occurs: There is also a rebound opportunity, but its strength needs observation.
  • If "Endpoint 44" is below 58,110 USD and no bullish momentum divergence occurs: After a short-term adjustment, the price may break down further.

4 Summary: Analysis from our self-built quantitative model suggests a higher probability for the first two scenarios.

2. Bitcoin Market Forecast and Trading Strategies for This Week

1. BTC Market Trend Forecast This Week

Core view this week: Focus on the formation of "Endpoint 44". If the first scenario mentioned above occurs, consider light long positions for the short term.

2. Core Resistance Levels

  • First Resistance Zone: 60,900~62,300 USD area (previous important high/low points)
  • Second Resistance Zone: Around 65,500 USD (previous significant resistance area)
  • Third Resistance Zone: 67,300~69,500 USD area (previous important resistance area)

3. Core Support Levels

  • First Support Level: Around 58,100 USD (previous important support level)
  • Second Support Level: Around 55,000 USD (previous important support level)

4. Trading Strategies This Week (excluding sudden news impact)

1 Medium-term Strategy

Figure 3 Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart (Position Monitoring Model)

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 3), the current price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel", confirming a shift to a bear-dominated market structure. Medium-term short positions are temporarily maintained at around 20%.

2 Short-term Strategy

Utilize 30% of the position, set stop-loss points, and look for "price difference" opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using 30-minute/60-minute cycles for operations).

3 Three Operational Plans (A/B/C)

For short-term operations, to dynamically respond to complex market evolutions, we have prepared three specific operational plans in advance.

Plan A: Tentative Long Position in Strong Support Zone (Endpoint 44 above 58,110 USD)

  • Entry: If the price scenario occurs as described above and aligns with quantitative model signals, consider establishing a long position of about 15%.
  • Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss level.
  • Exit: When rebounding near important resistance levels and combined with quantitative model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.

Plan B: Light Short Position in Resistance Zone

  • Entry: If the price rebounds to the 60,900~62,300 USD area and shows signs of resistance, combined with quantitative model topping signals, establish an initial short position of about 15%.
  • Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss level.
  • Exit: When adjusting to important support levels and combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.

Plan C: Add Short Position in Strong Resistance Zone

  • Addition: If the price continues to rebound to near the 65,000 USD or even 67,300 USD resistance levels and shows signs of stagnation, combined with quantitative model topping signals, consider adding short positions up to within 30%.
  • Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss level.
  • Exit: When falling to important support levels and combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.

3. HYPE Hourly Trend Structure Analysis

Figure 4 HYPE_4-hour K-line Chart

1 As shown in (Figure 4), HYPE began adjusting from its high of 76.94 USD on June 16th (Endpoint 51). In the 4-hour cycle, it can be subdivided into a five-wave adjustment structure: segments 51-52, 52-53, 53-54, 54-55, and 55-56. The price is currently operating in the 55-56 adjustment segment. The position status of "Endpoint 56" is key to the recent price trend.

2 Scenarios for the End of Short-term Adjustment:

  • If "Endpoint 56" is higher than "Endpoint 54", forming a "double bottom" pattern, this round of adjustment may end, and a rebound starting from "Endpoint 56" is highly probable.
  • If "Endpoint 56" is lower than "Endpoint 54" but forms a bullish momentum divergence, the probability of this round of adjustment ending is also high, with a potential rebound.

3 Scenarios for Continuation of Short-term Adjustment:

  • If "Endpoint 56" is lower than "Endpoint 54" and there is no bullish momentum divergence, this round of adjustment may extend into a seven-wave adjustment structure.

4 Analysis from our self-built quantitative model suggests a significant probability of the first scenario.

4. HYPE Market Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategies for This Week

1. HYPE Market Trend Forecast This Week

Core Resistance Levels:

  • First Resistance Level: Around 65.5 USD
  • Second Resistance Level: Around 71.5 USD

Core Support Levels:

  • First Support Level: Around 58.5 USD
  • Second Support Level: 52~54 USD area

Core HYPE View This Week: Observe the position and technical pattern when "Endpoint 56" finally forms.

2. HYPE Short-term Trading Strategies This Week (Long on Support)

This week's HYPE short-term trading should follow the strategy of "buying on dips, avoiding chasing rallies".

Short-term Strategy: Test long on support zone stabilization. When the HYPE price adjusts to above 58.8 USD or the deeper 52~54 USD support area, showing signs of stabilization and halting declines, and simultaneously combined with bottom signals triggered by two models, consider light long positions. Positions must be controlled below 30% and strict stop-loss discipline must be maintained.

5. Bitcoin Short-term Operation Review

We strictly followed the operational plans and executed two short-term short trades last week based on trading signals issued by our self-built "Price Difference Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model", achieving a total trading profit of approximately 6.21%.

1. Short-term Trade One

Bitcoin Short-term Trade Details (Leverage ×1):

Entry Strategy:

  • When the price rebounded to around 65,500 USD, met resistance and showed signs of pressure, with the K-line forming a "top reversal" bearish signal;
  • The "Price Difference Trading Model" triggered a top warning signal (white dot), and the "Momentum Quantitative Model" formed a bearish momentum divergence signal.

Therefore, we established a 15% short position at 64,530 USD.

Exit Strategy:

  • When the price fell to around 62,000 USD and halted its decline, with the K-line forming a "bottom reversal" signal;
  • The "Price Difference Trading Model" triggered a strong bottom warning signal (red dot + white dot), forming a bottom resonance signal with the "Momentum Quantitative Model".

Therefore, we closed all positions around 62,474 USD.

Summary: This trade successfully achieved a profit of approximately 3.18%.

2. Short-term Trade Two

Bitcoin Short-term Trade Details (Leverage ×1):

Entry Strategy:

  • When the price moved to around 63,000 USD, the two momentum lines in the "Momentum Quantitative Model" moved near the "zero axis" and showed signs of momentum exhaustion, subsequently forming the first "death cross" pattern below the "zero axis";
  • Simultaneously, the "Price Difference Trading Model" issued a top warning signal.

Therefore, we established a 15% short position at 62,679 USD.

Exit Strategy:

  • When the price fell to around 59,000 USD and halted its decline, with the K-line forming a "bottom reversal" signal;
  • The "Price Difference Trading Model" triggered a strong bottom warning signal (red dot + white dot), forming a bottom resonance signal with the "Momentum Quantitative Model".

Therefore, we closed all positions around 60,775 USD.

Summary: This trade successfully achieved a profit of approximately 3.03%.

Figure 5 Short-term Trade Illustration

6. Special Notes

  1. When opening a position: Immediately set the initial stop-loss level.
  2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (break-even point) to ensure principal safety.
  3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
  4. Continuous tracking: For every subsequent 1% increase in profit, synchronously move the stop-loss up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

Risk Warning:

Financial markets are constantly changing, and all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustments. All views, analytical models, and operational strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis and are for personal trading log purposes only. They do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market involves risks, and investment requires caution. Please do not make decisions based solely on this content.

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Related Questions

QAccording to the analysis, what is the key factor determining Bitcoin's short-term direction in its current five-wave correction?

AThe key factor determining Bitcoin's short-term direction is the final formation level of 'End Point 44'. If it forms above $58,110, a strong technical rebound is likely. If it forms below $58,110 without bullish divergence, further downside is a risk.

QWhat are the three operational plans (Plan A, B, C) proposed for Bitcoin in the short term?

APlan A: Test long positions in the strong support zone if 'Endpoint 44' is above $58,110. Plan B: Lightly test short positions in the resistance zone of $60,900 - $62,300. Plan C: Add to short positions in the stronger resistance zones near $65,000 or $67,300 if the price rallies there.

QWhat condition must be met for HYPE's current correction to likely end and start a rebound?

AFor HYPE's correction to likely end, either 'Endpoint 56' must form higher than 'Endpoint 54', creating a 'double bottom' pattern, or 'Endpoint 56' forms lower than 'Endpoint 54' but with bullish momentum divergence.

QBased on the review section, what specific signals did the analyst's models trigger to open and close the first Bitcoin short trade?

ATo open the first short trade: The price faced resistance near $65,500, formed a 'top reversal' candlestick pattern. The 'Spread Trading Model' triggered a top warning signal (white dot) and the 'Momentum Quant Model' showed bearish divergence. To close the trade: The price stopped falling near $62,000, formed a 'bottom reversal' candlestick. The 'Spread Trading Model' triggered a strong bottom warning (red + white dots), resonating with a bottom signal from the 'Momentum Quant Model'.

QWhat is the core risk management rule mentioned for protecting profits once a trade is opened?

AOnce a trade is opened, an initial stop-loss is set immediately. When profit reaches 1%, the stop-loss is moved to the entry price (break-even). At a 2% profit, the stop-loss is moved to lock in 1% profit. Subsequently, for every additional 1% gain, the stop-loss is trailed up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

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This dual approach empowers it to build a rich repository of domain-specific knowledge, enhancing its performance in task execution. Planning Over Long Task Horizons: Agent S employs experience-augmented hierarchical planning, a strategic approach that facilitates efficient breakdown and execution of intricate tasks. This feature significantly enhances its ability to manage multiple subtasks efficiently and effectively. Handling Dynamic, Non-Uniform Interfaces: The project introduces the Agent-Computer Interface (ACI), an innovative solution that enhances the interaction between agents and users. Utilizing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), Agent S can navigate and manipulate diverse graphical user interfaces seamlessly. Through these pioneering features, Agent S provides a robust framework that addresses the complexities involved in automating human interaction with machines, setting the stage for myriad applications in AI and beyond. Who is the Creator of Agent S? While the concept of Agent S is fundamentally innovative, specific information about its creator remains elusive. The creator is currently unknown, which highlights either the nascent stage of the project or the strategic choice to keep founding members under wraps. Regardless of anonymity, the focus remains on the framework's capabilities and potential. Who are the Investors of Agent S? As Agent S is relatively new in the cryptographic ecosystem, detailed information regarding its investors and financial backers is not explicitly documented. The lack of publicly available insights into the investment foundations or organisations supporting the project raises questions about its funding structure and development roadmap. Understanding the backing is crucial for gauging the project's sustainability and potential market impact. How Does Agent S Work? At the core of Agent S lies cutting-edge technology that enables it to function effectively in diverse settings. Its operational model is built around several key features: Human-like Computer Interaction: The framework offers advanced AI planning, striving to make interactions with computers more intuitive. By mimicking human behaviour in tasks execution, it promises to elevate user experiences. Narrative Memory: Employed to leverage high-level experiences, Agent S utilises narrative memory to keep track of task histories, thereby enhancing its decision-making processes. Episodic Memory: This feature provides users with step-by-step guidance, allowing the framework to offer contextual support as tasks unfold. Support for OpenACI: With the ability to run locally, Agent S allows users to maintain control over their interactions and workflows, aligning with the decentralised ethos of Web3. Easy Integration with External APIs: Its versatility and compatibility with various AI platforms ensure that Agent S can fit seamlessly into existing technological ecosystems, making it an appealing choice for developers and organisations. These functionalities collectively contribute to Agent S's unique position within the crypto space, as it automates complex, multi-step tasks with minimal human intervention. As the project evolves, its potential applications in Web3 could redefine how digital interactions unfold. Timeline of Agent S The development and milestones of Agent S can be encapsulated in a timeline that highlights its significant events: September 27, 2024: The concept of Agent S was launched in a comprehensive research paper titled “An Open Agentic Framework that Uses Computers Like a Human,” showcasing the groundwork for the project. October 10, 2024: The research paper was made publicly available on arXiv, offering an in-depth exploration of the framework and its performance evaluation based on the OSWorld benchmark. October 12, 2024: A video presentation was released, providing a visual insight into the capabilities and features of Agent S, further engaging potential users and investors. These markers in the timeline not only illustrate the progress of Agent S but also indicate its commitment to transparency and community engagement. Key Points About Agent S As the Agent S framework continues to evolve, several key attributes stand out, underscoring its innovative nature and potential: Innovative Framework: Designed to provide an intuitive use of computers akin to human interaction, Agent S brings a novel approach to task automation. Autonomous Interaction: The ability to interact autonomously with computers through GUI signifies a leap towards more intelligent and efficient computing solutions. Complex Task Automation: With its robust methodology, it can automate complex, multi-step tasks, making processes faster and less error-prone. Continuous Improvement: The learning mechanisms enable Agent S to improve from past experiences, continually enhancing its performance and efficacy. Versatility: Its adaptability across different operating environments like OSWorld and WindowsAgentArena ensures that it can serve a broad range of applications. As Agent S positions itself in the Web3 and crypto landscape, its potential to enhance interaction capabilities and automate processes signifies a significant advancement in AI technologies. Through its innovative framework, Agent S exemplifies the future of digital interactions, promising a more seamless and efficient experience for users across various industries. Conclusion Agent S represents a bold leap forward in the marriage of AI and Web3, with the capacity to redefine how we interact with technology. While still in its early stages, the possibilities for its application are vast and compelling. Through its comprehensive framework addressing critical challenges, Agent S aims to bring autonomous interactions to the forefront of the digital experience. As we move deeper into the realms of cryptocurrency and decentralisation, projects like Agent S will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping the future of technology and human-computer collaboration.

748 Total ViewsPublished 2025.01.14Updated 2025.01.14

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