Bitcoin STH Unrealized Losses Hit 15%: Is This Where The Bleeding Stops?

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-01-04Last updated on 2026-01-04

Abstract

Bitcoin's positive start to the year was disrupted by market reactions to U.S. military action in Venezuela, briefly pushing BTC below $90,000. Despite short-term volatility, on-chain data suggests a potential correction low may be forming. Analyst Darkfost notes that short-term holders (STHs) are under significant pressure, with unrealized losses averaging around 15%, based on a cost basis of approximately $103,000. Historically, such levels have often preceded local bottoms, though prolonged bear market conditions could invalidate this signal. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $91,160, up over 1% in 24 hours.

The positive start of the Bitcoin price to the new year was threatened on Saturday, January 3, as the cryptocurrency market reacted negatively to the recent United States military action in Venezuela. The flagship cryptocurrency briefly lost its hold above the $90,000 mark after US President Donald Trump announced the capture of the Venezuelan leader, Nicolas Maduro.

While the long-term impact of the latest US military strikes on the cryptocurrency market remains unknown, the Bitcoin price seems to be gearing up for an upward move in the short term. Interestingly, the latest on-chain data suggests that the cryptocurrency market leader could potentially reach a correction low.

Could A Bottom Be Forming For BTC Price?

Crypto analyst Darkfost revealed in a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform that the most reactive group of Bitcoin investors, known as short-term holders (STHs), have remained under pressure, as the BTC price oscillates between the $85,000 and $92,000 levels.

Darkfost shared that the Bitcoin short-term holders have their estimated cost basis around $103,000, after accounting for the on-chain impact of Coinbase’s recent large BTC transfers. Based on data from CryptoQuant, the average unrealized losses for this investor cohort stand at around 15%.

As Darkfost explained in their Quicktake post, this figure was arrived at based on the percentage deviation from the short-term holder cost basis. “Using this approach makes it possible to identify periods when the most reactive and sensitive investors in the market are under stress,” the on-chain analyst said.

Source: CryptoQuant

From a historical perspective, when Bitcoin short-term holders witness significant drawdowns, and their average unrealized losses stand at around 15%, the formation of a correction low is often next for the premier cryptocurrency. According to Darkfost, BTC could be staring at a similar situation here.

However, the crypto analyst noted that this signal could be false, especially if the Bitcoin price is at the start of an extended bear market. A deep or prolonged bear market could cause the STH’s unrealized losses to stay above 15% for longer periods or open the door to persistent distribution.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $91,160, reflecting a more than 1% jump in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency has increased by nearly 4% in the past seven days.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Related Questions

QWhat is the current percentage of unrealized losses for Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) according to the article?

AThe average unrealized losses for Bitcoin short-term holders stand at around 15%.

QAccording to the analyst Darkfost, what historical pattern often follows when STH unrealized losses reach around 15%?

AHistorically, when Bitcoin short-term holders witness significant drawdowns with unrealized losses around 15%, the formation of a correction low is often next for Bitcoin.

QWhat event on January 3rd caused a negative reaction in the cryptocurrency market and briefly pushed Bitcoin below $90,000?

AThe cryptocurrency market reacted negatively to the United States military action in Venezuela, specifically the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro announced by US President Donald Trump.

QWhat is the estimated cost basis for the Bitcoin short-term holders mentioned in the article?

AThe estimated cost basis for Bitcoin short-term holders is around $103,000, after accounting for the on-chain impact of Coinbase's recent large BTC transfers.

QAs of the writing of the article, what was the price of Bitcoin and its 24-hour price performance?

AAs of the writing of the article, the price of Bitcoin stood at around $91,160, reflecting a more than 1% jump in the past 24 hours.

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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