Bitcoin RSI nears three-year lows vs. gold as analyst sees bullish comeback

cointelegraphPublished on 2025-12-20Last updated on 2025-12-20

Abstract

Bitcoin's value relative to gold has dropped to 20 ounces, its lowest level since early 2024, approaching what analysts consider a critical bull/bear market threshold. The weekly RSI has fallen to 29.5, nearing three-year lows and entering oversold territory, which historically signals a long-term bottom. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe suggests a bullish divergence is forming on the daily chart, indicating potential short-term upside. He argues gold is becoming overvalued while Bitcoin is undervalued. However, other commentators caution that losing the 20-ounce support level could signal the start of a broader bear market, with a break below likely in the coming weeks. The three-year uptrend for BTC against gold has now been broken.

Bitcoin (BTC) versus gold has entered classic bottom territory as a key support retest begins.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin drops to 20 ounces of gold for the first time since early 2024.

  • This represents a the border between bull and bear-market territory, analysis says.

  • A three-year Bitcoin uptrend versus gold is now almost lost.

Bitcoin vs. gold: Bullish divergence at support

Analysis from crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe on Saturday predicted “more upside on the horizon” for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has struggled in gold terms as the precious metal stays near all-time highs through the Q4 crypto market correction.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView shows that BTC/XAU now trades at around 20 ounces — its lowest levels since early 2024.

For Van de Poppe, however, opportunity is in the air.

“The last times the markets have hit their low, that was the moment BTCUSD/Gold has hit the low as well. One of them is getting overvalued. One of them is getting undervalued,” he told X followers.

“In my thesis, Gold is getting overvalued, while #Bitcoin is getting undervalued.”
BTC/XAU one-week chart with RSI, volume data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X


Historical comparisons show that in each Bitcoin bear cycle, the weekly relative strength index (RSI) dropping into “oversold” territory below 30 marked a long-term bottom for the pair.

“The best part: on the daily timeframe it starts to make a bullish divergence, signalling that there's more upside on the horizon in the short term,” Van de Poppe added.

BTC/XAU one-day chart with RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView


While the daily RSI begins to move in the opposite direction of the price, the weekly RSI currently sits at 29.5, carving out lows not seen in nearly three years.

BTC/XAU one-week chart with RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Support break “likely within the next few weeks”

Continuing on the topic, trading and commentary account Wealthmanager nonetheless reiterated that Bitcoin’s last bear market began thanks to the failure of BTC/XAU to hold the 20-ounce mark.

Related: Bears take over below $90K? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

“Bitcoin against Gold is at a crucial support level. The last Bitcoin bear market officially started when we lost this support,” an X post warned.

“I expect we will consolidate here for a while, but a break is likely within the next few weeks.”
BTC/XAU one-week chart. Source: @Wealthmanager/X


Crypto trader and entrepreneur Ted Pillows, meanwhile, eyed the loss of a long-term uptrend with the latest drop.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.




Related Questions

QWhat key level has Bitcoin (BTC) reached against gold (XAU) for the first time since early 2024?

ABitcoin has dropped to 20 ounces of gold for the first time since early 2024.

QAccording to Michaël van de Poppe, which asset is overvalued and which is undervalued at the current BTC/XAU level?

AMichaël van de Poppe believes that gold is getting overvalued, while Bitcoin is getting undervalued.

QWhat does a bullish divergence on the daily RSI for BTC/XAU signal, according to the analyst?

AA bullish divergence on the daily RSI signals that there is more upside on the horizon for Bitcoin in the short term.

QWhat critical event does the trading account Wealthmanager say marked the start of the last Bitcoin bear market?

AWealthmanager stated that the last Bitcoin bear market officially started when BTC/XAU lost the support level of 20 ounces.

QWhat long-term trend has been lost with Bitcoin's latest drop against gold, as noted by Ted Pillows?

ATed Pillows noted that Bitcoin has lost its 3-year uptrend against gold.

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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