Bitcoin RSI nears three-year lows vs. gold as analyst sees bullish comeback

cointelegraphPublished on 2025-12-20Last updated on 2025-12-20

Abstract

Bitcoin's value relative to gold has dropped to 20 ounces, its lowest level since early 2024, approaching what analysts consider a critical bull/bear market threshold. The weekly RSI has fallen to 29.5, nearing three-year lows and entering oversold territory, which historically signals a long-term bottom. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe suggests a bullish divergence is forming on the daily chart, indicating potential short-term upside. He argues gold is becoming overvalued while Bitcoin is undervalued. However, other commentators caution that losing the 20-ounce support level could signal the start of a broader bear market, with a break below likely in the coming weeks. The three-year uptrend for BTC against gold has now been broken.

Bitcoin (BTC) versus gold has entered classic bottom territory as a key support retest begins.

Key points:

Bitcoin drops to 20 ounces of gold for the first time since early 2024.
This represents a the border between bull and bear-market territory, analysis says.
A three-year Bitcoin uptrend versus gold is now almost lost.

Bitcoin vs. gold: Bullish divergence at support

Analysis from crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe on Saturday predicted “more upside on the horizon” for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has struggled in gold terms as the precious metal stays near all-time highs through the Q4 crypto market correction.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView shows that BTC/XAU now trades at around 20 ounces — its lowest levels since early 2024.

For Van de Poppe, however, opportunity is in the air.

“The last times the markets have hit their low, that was the moment BTCUSD/Gold has hit the low as well. One of them is getting overvalued. One of them is getting undervalued,” he told X followers.

“In my thesis, Gold is getting overvalued, while #Bitcoin is getting undervalued.”

*BTC/XAU one-week chart with RSI, volume data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X*

Historical comparisons show that in each Bitcoin bear cycle, the weekly relative strength index (RSI) dropping into “oversold” territory below 30 marked a long-term bottom for the pair.

“The best part: on the daily timeframe it starts to make a bullish divergence, signalling that there's more upside on the horizon in the short term,” Van de Poppe added.

*BTC/XAU one-day chart with RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView*

While the daily RSI begins to move in the opposite direction of the price, the weekly RSI currently sits at 29.5, carving out lows not seen in nearly three years.

*BTC/XAU one-week chart with RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView*

Support break “likely within the next few weeks”

Continuing on the topic, trading and commentary account Wealthmanager nonetheless reiterated that Bitcoin’s last bear market began thanks to the failure of BTC/XAU to hold the 20-ounce mark.

Related: Bears take over below $90K? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

“Bitcoin against Gold is at a crucial support level. The last Bitcoin bear market officially started when we lost this support,” an X post warned.

“I expect we will consolidate here for a while, but a break is likely within the next few weeks.”

*BTC/XAU one-week chart. Source: @Wealthmanager/X*

Crypto trader and entrepreneur Ted Pillows, meanwhile, eyed the loss of a long-term uptrend with the latest drop.

BTC/Gold has lost its 3-year uptrend.

A bad way to end 2025 for Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/iDrQKS2jpq
— Ted (@TedPillows) December 20, 2025

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Trending Cryptos

CitreaCTR

wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT

Velodrome FinanceVELODROME

BrevisBREV

ZRX（0X）ZRX

PancakeSwapCAKE

Tiger Research: Zuckerberg Begins Betting on Prediction Markets, While Asian Nations Still View Them as Gambling

This article examines the rise of prediction markets, contrasting their growing institutional acceptance in the West with their restrictive regulation in Asia. It details how prediction markets, which originated from informal political betting and academic experiments like the Iowa Electronic Market, aggregate crowd wisdom into probabilistic prices through binary contracts. Their growth accelerated around 2020, reaching over $14 billion in monthly volume. A key driver is the "skin in the game" principle, where users risk their own capital, leading to high accuracy in predicting events like Fed rate decisions and elections, as demonstrated by platforms like Polymarket. Meta's entry, with Mark Zuckerberg reportedly leading the development of the Arena app, signals the market's maturation. In the U.S., court rulings have distinguished prediction markets from gambling, facilitating entry by traditional financial institutions. However, most Asian jurisdictions still classify them as gambling, focusing on social control rather than financial innovation. The article argues this stance creates three problems for Asia: 1) regulatory arbitrage pushes users to riskier offshore platforms, 2) loss of sovereign information infrastructure as valuable social sentiment data accumulates abroad, and 3) abandonment of user protection. It concludes that Asia needs a policy shift from prohibition to constructive regulation, integrating these markets into the formal system to harness their data as a national asset, as initiatives like Limitless Research are beginning to do.

marsbit11m ago

Tiger Research: Zuckerberg Begins Betting on Prediction Markets, While Asian Nations Still View Them as Gambling

marsbit11m ago

JPMorgan backs crypto bill as Donald Trump vows to ‘not sign other bills’ – What now?

The House-passed Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 faces an uncertain future despite gaining significant backing from JPMorgan, a major shift for the traditionally crypto-skeptical bank. According to BitGo CEO Mike Belshe, this support is crucial as regulatory uncertainty has been the largest obstacle to institutional adoption. Should the bill pass, it could simplify market entry for institutional investors, potentially leading to wider cryptocurrency uptake. However, approval odds on Polymarket have dropped to 45%. Supporters, including Rep. French Hill and former CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, are pushing for a Senate vote before the August recess to force a compromise. Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin also supports the legislation. Yet, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren criticizes the current draft as enabling sanctions evasion. A further complication is former President Donald Trump's vow not to sign other bills until the SAVE America Act is passed, pushing the CLARITY Act's next deadline to August 7th.

ambcrypto50m ago

JPMorgan backs crypto bill as Donald Trump vows to ‘not sign other bills’ – What now?

ambcrypto50m ago

Ethereum's Next Decade in the Eyes of Vitalik

"Lean Ethereum" Long-Term Roadmap Unveiled by Vitalik Buterin On July 5, 2026, Vitalik Buterin published the "Lean Ethereum" roadmap, positioning it as Ethereum's third major evolution following the Merge. This multi-year, multi-phase upgrade aims to fundamentally transform Ethereum's core protocol through staged network upgrades extending to 2029. Key goals include achieving 1 gigagas per second L1 throughput (a massive increase from the current ~32 TPS), near-instant finality, and quantum-resistant cryptography. The plan involves transitioning Ethereum's security model from full transaction re-execution by all nodes to native verification via recursive STARK proofs. A major proposed change is replacing the EVM with a proof-friendly architecture like RISC-V or leanISA, though this remains a point of contention, especially with L2s like Arbitrum favoring alternatives like WASM. Other planned upgrades include a restructured state model with a large, cheap "warehouse" storage layer to drastically reduce fees for migrated applications, multi-dimensional gas pricing, and a new focus on making privacy a first-class, native protocol feature. While the roadmap significantly raises Ethereum's long-term technical ceiling, analysts note it does not directly address ETH's mid-term token economics or value capture. The plan's multi-year timeline means near-term price impact will likely depend on observable progress milestones, such as the successful deployment of the upcoming Glamsterdam gas limit increase, growth in L2 activity and blob usage, and trends in L1 fee revenue and ETH burn.

链捕手1h ago

Ethereum's Next Decade in the Eyes of Vitalik

链捕手1h ago

In Just 11 Days, Claude Rewrote Millions of Lines of Code, an Epic AI Engineering Feat Sparks Fury

In just 11 days, Bun's founder Jarred Sumner used Anthropic's Claude AI models to rewrite its million lines of code from Zig to Rust. This move sparked significant controversy, particularly from Zig's creator, Andrew Kelley, who publicly criticized Sumner's engineering practices and the decision to use AI for such a massive rewrite. Bun, a high-performance JavaScript/TypeScript runtime and rival to Node.js, was originally written in Zig. After Anthropic acquired Bun, the team encountered persistent stability and memory safety bugs in the Zig codebase. These issues, combined with Zig's strict policy against LLM-generated code, led to the decision to rewrite in Rust. The rewrite was executed using Claude AI tools at an estimated API cost of $165,000, dramatically reducing the expected time and financial cost. Andrew Kelley's response was scathing. He blamed the original bugs on poor engineering habits, calling Bun's Zig code a collection of "hacks on top of hacks." He expressed relief that Bun was no longer associated with Zig, fearing it would misrepresent the language and attract low-quality, AI-generated contributions. The tech community is divided; some view Kelley's critique as unprofessional, while others see it as a defense of engineering integrity. A major concern about the AI-driven rewrite is the resulting code quality. The translation from Zig left approximately 27,000 lines of unsafe Rust code, raising fears about long-term maintainability and technical debt. The debate centers on whether this project is a milestone in AI-assisted development or a future maintenance nightmare.

marsbit2h ago

In Just 11 Days, Claude Rewrote Millions of Lines of Code, an Epic AI Engineering Feat Sparks Fury

marsbit2h ago

From Auto Finance to Bitcoin to AI Engines: An Analysis of Cango's 'What Not to Do' Strategy

From Auto Finance to Bitcoin and Now AI: Cango's "What Not to Do" Strategy Cango, a Chinese auto finance platform that went public on the NYSE in 2018, is undergoing its third major transformation. After selling its entire auto business in 2024, it pivoted to become a large-scale Bitcoin miner, acquiring 50 exahash of mining rigs from Bitmain. However, its true goal was never Bitcoin, but owning and controlling energy infrastructure. Now, Cango is pivoting again. While most listed Bitcoin miners are leasing power to giant hyperscalers for AI training clusters, Cango is taking the opposite path. It has launched an AI inference subsidiary called EcoHash, focusing not on training but on distributed inference. The company's strategy hinges on the insight that over 70% of mining industry power is controlled by small, independent sites (10-50 MW), which are too small for hyperscalers but ideal for low-latency AI inference. Cango aims to partner with these small operators, providing the AI technology, customers, and financing through its EcoLink software layer, which can distribute workloads across sites for reliability. Cango maintains a hybrid model, running roughly 31.7 EH/s of Bitcoin mining for cash flow while aggressively cleaning its balance sheet—slashing long-term debt by 94.5% to $30.6 million and raising $75 million for its AI venture. Its first AI deployment will be at a 50 MW site in Georgia. The strategy faces skepticism, given the high costs of converting mining sites and the potential for an AI bubble. However, Cango's leadership believes discipline around "what not to do"—avoiding direct competition with hyperscalers in training—positions it to capture the long-tail demand for distributed AI inference power.

Foresight News2h ago

From Auto Finance to Bitcoin to AI Engines: An Analysis of Cango's 'What Not to Do' Strategy

Foresight News2h ago

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

720 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

Meet ZetaChain: The Universal L1 for Apps That Work Everywhere — Even on Bitcoin

ZetaChain is the first ever Universal Blockchain to enable native connection across all blockchain ecosystems.

48.6k Total ViewsPublished 2025.06.16Updated 2025.06.16

Meet ZetaChain: The Universal L1 for Apps That Work Everywhere — Even on Bitcoin

Fractal Bitcoin: Scaling Bitcoin as a Recursive System

Fractal Bitcoin is a Layer-1 scalability solution built on the Bitcoin core code, enabling infinite scalability through a recursive approach.

48.1k Total ViewsPublished 2025.06.30Updated 2025.06.30

Fractal Bitcoin: Scaling Bitcoin as a Recursive System

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.