Bitcoin pushes past $70K – Will weak on-chain activity push BTC down again?

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-03-10Last updated on 2026-03-10

Abstract

Bitcoin has surpassed $70,000 amid renewed market optimism, but underlying on-chain indicators suggest weakness. Adjusted on-chain volume has declined to historically low levels, signaling reduced usage. Daily active users and transaction fees have also dropped significantly, reflecting diminished network activity and weakening demand. Despite the price rally, liquidity clusters indicate stronger incentives for downward movement toward $66,000, compared to limited upside toward $72,000. Analysts suggest a significant surge in volatility may be needed to reignite momentum, potentially in Q2 2026. Short-term downside risk remains before a stronger trend can be confirmed.

Bitcoin [BTC] has shown signs of recovery over the past day as the market pushed past the $70,000 mark, with sentiment pointing to renewed capital flowing into the market once again.

However, on-chain activity does not align with the ongoing rebound and instead offers a different perspective on what is happening with the leading crypto asset.

On-chain signals point to weakness

Adjusted on-chain volume, which tracks the cumulative buying and selling activity of Bitcoin, suggests underlying weakness in the market.

At the time of writing, this volume has declined to one of the lowest levels in its history, indicating weak on-chain usage of Bitcoin.

A comparison between volume and price trends reveals a clear relationship. When volume rises or shows consistent usage with occasional spikes, Bitcoin’s price has historically moved upward in strong rallies.

The opposite tends to occur when volume declines. Yet Bitcoin has rallied into the $70,000 range even as volume continues to weaken.

Nonetheless, crypto on-chain analyst Joao Wedson believes the second quarter, beginning in April, could influence Bitcoin’s volume activity.

“A significant surge in volatility is needed to reignite the crypto fire. And I believe this will start to happen from the second quarter of 2026.”

On-chain usage declines

There has also been a drop in usage on the Bitcoin blockchain. At the time of writing, data from Artemis showed that daily active users fell to 375,700 over the past day.

This drop marks one of the lowest levels recorded this year. A continued decline below the 343,000-user threshold would place network activity at its lowest point since April 2024.

A similar pattern has appeared in transaction fees, which have dropped to roughly $127,000.

This trend is notable because declining users and falling fees confirm that the weakness reflected in volume remains present.

Lower network activity also implies reduced demand for Bitcoin from circulating supply in the market.

Liquidity clusters suggest downside risk remains

While on-chain activity provides useful insight into Bitcoin’s potential trajectory, it does not offer a complete picture.

Unlike Ethereum, which supports extensive decentralized finance activity, Bitcoin’s ecosystem operates differently. This makes it necessary to examine additional market indicators.

One of those indicators is volatility and liquidity positioning. For this reason, the liquidation heatmap was analyzed, as it highlights probable directional bias and areas of concentrated market volatility.

The heatmap suggests that the market has stronger liquidity incentives for Bitcoin to move lower than to move higher.

This observation is based on liquidity clusters, represented by shaded areas on the chart, which appear more concentrated below the current price.

On the downside, these clusters extend toward the $66,000 region.

On the upside, liquidity concentration appears weaker and only stretches faintly toward the $72,000 level.

This structure suggests that although current momentum could still push Bitcoin higher, the downward pull remains present. As a result, Bitcoin could still face another short-term decline before establishing a stronger trend.

Final Summary

Bitcoin rallies despite declining on-chain usage, fees, and volumes.
Liquidity clusters show the downside pull for Bitcoin still exists and remains on the bears’ radar.

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