Bitcoin MVRV Pattern Predicts Major Downswing Ahead – Details

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-05-18Last updated on 2026-05-18

Abstract

Despite a recent rally, Bitcoin faces predictions of a significant price correction based on historical patterns. Currently trading around $78,000 after failing to break the $82,000 resistance, analysts point to the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric. Analyst Crypto Chan notes the current MVRV pattern mirrors the structure seen before the final capitulation in the 2018 bear market. After dropping to 1.14 at the recent cycle low of $60,000, the MVRV ratio rebounded to 1.51, similar to the 2018 precedent which preceded a major downswing. Other analysts, like Kabuki, support this bearish outlook, citing a completed head-and-shoulders pattern on Bitcoin's weekly chart. This analysis forecasts a potential drop to $70,000 initially, followed by a decline to key support levels at $61,000 and $47,000, a brief bounce, and a final sell-off potentially reaching a bottom around $41,000 by June.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $78,000, as prices continue to fall following another rejection at the $82,000 barrier on Friday. Despite the encouraging rally over the five weeks of Q2 2026, several analysts predict Bitcoin is now in the initial stages of another prolonged price correction, likely heading to an “actual” price bottom. According to market analyst Crypto Chan on X, historical MVRV data reinforces this outlook, indicating that BTC could be positioning for a final leg down before establishing a more sustainable price floor.

Bitcoin MVRV Mirrors 2018 Bear Market

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric is used to gauge the current market condition: a ratio above 1 suggests an asset may be overvalued, while a ratio below 1 indicates an undervalued market.

In an X post on May 16, Crypto Chan explains that the Bitcoin MVRV metric is currently showing a bearish structure similar to that seen in the 2018 bear market. In that cycle, BTC experienced its final capitulation phase after the MVRV ratio initially declined to around 1.15, then rebounded to 1.63, ultimately preceding the market’s last downswing and the eventual price bottom.

Similar to that time, the Bitcoin MVRV metric had dropped to 1.14 when prices reached the current cycle bottom of $60,000. Since then, the premier cryptocurrency has registered steady gains, rising to its recent peak of $82,000, while the MVRV ratio has rebounded to 1.51. Based on historical data, this on-chain pattern could signal another sustained price decline for Bitcoin.

How Low Could BTC Go?

Alongside Crypto Chan, other analysts are also betting on a downside move amid the asset price struggle with the $82,000 zone. In a separate X post, market pundit Kabuki predicts that the leading cryptocurrency is now reacting to the completion of the bearish head-and-shoulders formation on its weekly chart.

Kabuki’s analysis forecasts Bitcoin to retreat to $70,000 in the coming days and drop to $41,000 in June. The projected path outlines a series of key support levels, beginning at $61,000 and $47,000, before a brief relief bounce toward $55,000. This temporary recovery is then anticipated to give way to a final sell-off, ultimately forming a market bottom around $41,000.

At press time, the premier cryptocurrency is valued at $78,044 following a minor 0.51% decline in the last day. With a market cap of $1.56 trillion, Bitcoin remains the largest cryptocurrency and 12th largest asset in the world.

BTC trading at $78,136 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com

Related Questions

QWhat is the current trading price of Bitcoin mentioned in the article, and what resistance level was recently rejected?

ABitcoin is trading around $78,000. It recently faced another rejection at the $82,000 resistance level on Friday.

QAccording to analyst Crypto Chan, what does the current Bitcoin MVRV pattern indicate based on historical comparison?

AAccording to Crypto Chan, the current Bitcoin MVRV pattern is showing a bearish structure similar to the 2018 bear market, suggesting Bitcoin could be positioning for a final downswing before establishing a more sustainable price floor.

QWhat are the key support levels, and what is the ultimate bottom price predicted by analyst Kabuki's forecast for Bitcoin in June?

AKabuki's forecast predicts Bitcoin could retreat to $70,000 soon, drop to $41,000 in June, with key support levels at $61,000 and $47,000, followed by a brief relief bounce to $55,000 before the final sell-off to the $41,000 bottom.

QWhat does an MVRV ratio above 1 and below 1 indicate about an asset's market condition?

AAn MVRV ratio above 1 suggests an asset may be overvalued, while a ratio below 1 indicates an undervalued market.

QWhat was the MVRV ratio value when Bitcoin hit its current cycle low of $60,000, and what did it rebound to at the recent peak?

AWhen Bitcoin hit the current cycle low of $60,000, the MVRV ratio dropped to 1.14. It then rebounded to 1.51 at the recent peak of $82,000.

Related Reads

Weekly Token Unlocks: Sahara Unlocks Tokens Equivalent to 4.1% of Circulating Supply

This week's token unlocks feature three projects with significant releases into circulation. **Sahara** will unlock 130 million tokens (approximately $4.53 million USD), representing 4.1% of its circulating supply. Sahara is a trustless, permissionless, and privacy-centric network designed for creating custom Autonomous Knowledge Agents (KA) to monetize and automate knowledge capital. **Humanity Protocol** is set to unlock 110 million tokens (approximately $22.05 million USD). It is an anti-Sybil blockchain network providing developers with human identity verification and giving users full ownership of their data and identity. **Plasma** will unlock 89.11 million tokens (approximately $7.04 million USD). It is a Layer 1 blockchain built for global stablecoin payments, featuring high throughput, stablecoin-native functionality, and full EVM compatibility. Each project section in the original article includes a visual release schedule chart detailing their respective token unlock curves.

marsbit21m ago

Weekly Token Unlocks: Sahara Unlocks Tokens Equivalent to 4.1% of Circulating Supply

marsbit21m ago

With Ozak AI Now Above $7 Million Raised, Analysts Warn That Remaining Presale Allocation Could Shrink Rapidly as Late Buyers Rush To Secure Positions.

Ozak AI is experiencing significant presale momentum, having raised over $7 million across its phases. Currently in its 7th presale stage priced at $0.014, analysts warn the remaining allocation is shrinking rapidly as late buyers rush to secure tokens before the price increases and it lists on major exchanges with a target of $1. Demand is driven by its advanced AI technology, which uses specialized multi-agent systems for real-time blockchain data analysis, predictive tools, and personalized AI agents. Early investors have seen substantial returns, with gains up to 1300%. The project is also strengthening its ecosystem through key partnerships. With limited supply and high demand, analysts suggest the current presale offers a final opportunity for investors before potential significant price appreciation post-listing.

TheNewsCrypto5h ago

With Ozak AI Now Above $7 Million Raised, Analysts Warn That Remaining Presale Allocation Could Shrink Rapidly as Late Buyers Rush To Secure Positions.

TheNewsCrypto5h ago

I vibe-coded an Android app using Google

In a hands-on experience, Google AI Studio's new "prompt to phone" feature allows users to generate functional Android apps using natural language prompts. The author created three apps in one afternoon: a text-based adventure game called MOOD, a calorie counter, and a Super Mario-style game featuring Peach. The process involved describing the app concept, letting Gemini AI generate the code and interface, and then installing it directly onto a connected phone. While the apps were generated and installed quickly, their quality varied significantly. The text adventure was simplistic and buggy, the calorie counter provided inaccurate data due to flawed logic, and the platformer was prone to crashes. The AI could efficiently fix specific, identifiable bugs through follow-up prompts. However, the experience highlighted that while AI can rapidly prototype "working" software, creating reliable, accurate, and polished applications still requires human oversight, judgment, and iteration. The tool dramatically lowers the barrier to entry for personal software creation but doesn't yet replace the need for developer expertise in the final stages of quality and refinement.

marsbit7h ago

I vibe-coded an Android app using Google

marsbit7h ago

Warsh's First Day in Office, Markets Deliver a 'Wake-up Call': Rate Hike Expected This Year

On his first day in office, newly inaugurated Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh received a stark market warning, with expectations now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike this year. The shift was triggered by hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Waller, who stated that inflation is now the key policy "driver" and that the odds of a hike or cut are evenly split. This sent short-term Treasury yields higher. Waller signaled a significant pivot in his stance, citing disappointing inflation and labor data. He suggested removing "easing bias" language from Fed statements and did not rule out future rate increases if inflation fails to recede, though he noted immediate action isn't warranted without signs of unanchored inflation expectations. Chairman Warsh faces immediate pressure at his first FOMC meeting in June. With the preferred inflation gauge at a three-year high, analysts warn that failing to hike could be interpreted as an implicit easing of policy. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is adding to existing price pressures. The market's expectation for a hike contrasts sharply with earlier forecasts for multiple cuts. While long-term Treasury yields have been contained by lower energy prices recently, analysts note they remain under structural upward pressure. Warsh's swearing-in at the White House highlights political scrutiny over Fed independence. However, the market has made it clear that inflation is the most urgent challenge, leaving the new chairman little time to settle in.

marsbit8h ago

Warsh's First Day in Office, Markets Deliver a 'Wake-up Call': Rate Hike Expected This Year

marsbit8h ago

Has Microsoft Lost Its Way in the AI Race, and Can Copilot Bring It Back on Track?

Microsoft, once seen as an early AI frontrunner due to its investment in OpenAI, is navigating a strategic shift amid increased competition. Its initial reliance on OpenAI’s GPT models has been complicated by OpenAI’s growing ambitions as a direct competitor, rapid advancements from rivals like Claude and Gemini, and the disruptive rise of AI agents, which challenge its traditional SaaS business model. These factors contributed to stock declines and slower-than-expected adoption of its flagship Copilot products. In response, CEO Satya Nadella has taken a hands-on role in product development, signaling the urgency of change. Microsoft is pivoting from a model-centric strategy to a "model-agnostic" enterprise platform approach. It aims to become the foundational layer connecting various AI models—from OpenAI, Anthropic, or its own new "Superintelligence" team—with enterprise workflows, data, security, and cloud services. Recent organizational changes merged consumer and enterprise Copilot teams to accelerate innovation, exemplified by new products like Copilot Tasks and Copilot Cowork. However, this transformation comes at a high cost. Microsoft faces massive capital expenditures, potentially reaching ~$190 billion by 2026, to support AI infrastructure. While its platform strategy shows early signs of traction with growing Azure AI revenue, it must balance startup-like agility with the reliability expected by enterprise clients. The core challenge is no longer being the sole AI winner but defending its position as the essential enterprise software entry point amidst rapid technological commoditization and the shift towards always-on AI agents.

marsbit8h ago

Has Microsoft Lost Its Way in the AI Race, and Can Copilot Bring It Back on Track?

marsbit8h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions