Bernstein Interprets SpaceX's First Quarterly Report Since IPO: How Does the $239 Target Price Hold Up?

marsbitPublished on 2026-08-06Last updated on 2026-08-06

Abstract

Bernstein maintains its "Outperform" rating and $239 price target for SpaceX following its first earnings report as a public company. The Q2 2026 results showed strong growth, with revenue reaching $7.814B, a 92% year-over-year increase, beating expectations. The Starlink Connectivity business remained the profit driver, generating $1.656B in operating income. The AI segment saw revenue surge 247% to $2.561B, though it required massive capital expenditures of $15.828B. The $239 target is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation projecting 2031 revenue of $554B, significantly below CEO Elon Musk's accelerated goal of $1 trillion by 2030. Bernstein's model assumes AI computing prices will eventually fall to around $10/watt, not the $30-$50/watt range cited by management. The valuation hinges on three key pillars: continued profit growth from Connectivity, the AI business converting its heavy investment into scalable revenue, and the Starship achieving full and rapid reusability to enable low-cost expansion. While quarterly performance was strong, post-IPO stock lock-up expirations and execution risks around Starship and AI returns contributed to a subsequent share price decline.

SpaceX's first quarterly earnings since going public have presented the market with an even more aggressive growth story: the Connectivity business continues to contribute profits, AI computing revenue is growing rapidly, and Musk has moved forward the target year for reaching $1 trillion in annual revenue from 2031 to 2030, suggesting it could be achieved as early as 2029.

According to the company's SEC filing, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A common stock has begun trading on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker SPCX. Following the release of its Q2 results for the period ending June 30 on August 4, Bernstein maintained its 'Outperform' rating and a $239 price target. Based on the closing price of $125.33 on August 4 as cited in the report, this implies an approximate 91% upside potential.

However, the $239 target price is not predicated on the full realization of the $1 trillion revenue goal. Bernstein's own revenue forecast for SpaceX in 2031 is $554 billion, significantly lower than management's vision; its AI computing price model also still assumes a long-term decline to approximately $10 per watt. In other words, higher computing prices and more aggressive revenue targets represent potential upside beyond the current valuation.

On August 5, SpaceX's stock price fell further to $108.27, a single-day drop of 13.6%. This indicates the market is not solely focused on this quarter's performance but is simultaneously weighing AI capital expenditures, potential stock supply pressure from the post-IPO lock-up period expiration, and whether Starship can enter a phase of high-frequency, low-cost launches.

Revenue Growth of 92%, Connectivity Remains the Profit Pillar

SpaceX's Q2 revenue reached $7.814 billion, a year-on-year increase of 92%. The consensus cited by Axios from S&P Visible Alpha was $6.9 billion, while Bernstein's report used a market consensus of $6.546 billion. Despite differing methodologies, both point to the same conclusion: revenue this quarter significantly exceeded expectations.

The company's Q2 diluted loss per share was $0.09, also better than the market expectation of a $0.24 loss per share. The three business segments combined posted an operating loss of $143 million, far better than the $1.73 billion market expectation used by Bernstein, primarily due to a narrower AI segment loss and Connectivity margins higher than expected.

Looking at the segments, the most stable currently remains the Connectivity business centered on Starlink. Starlink user count reached 12 million by the end of Q2, an increase of 1.7 million from Q1, with average monthly revenue per user remaining stable at $66.

Connectivity's quarterly revenue was $4.291 billion, with operating profit of $1.656 billion, corresponding to an operating margin of approximately 38.6%, higher than the 37% market expectation used by Bernstein. It is also SpaceX's only currently profitable business segment at the operating level, providing crucial support for the company's continued investments in AI and Starship.

The Space business completed 38 launches in Q2, comprising 10 customer launches and 28 internal launches, delivering a total mass to orbit (MTO) of 485 tons. This segment's revenue was $962 million, higher than the market expectation of $874 million, but operating losses still reached $542 million due to increased Starship R&D investment.

The AI business possesses both the greatest revenue elasticity and funding requirements. By the end of Q2, SpaceX's nominal compute capacity reached 1.4 GW, up from 1.0 GW in Q1, with expectations to exceed 2 GW by the end of 2026. The AI segment's quarterly revenue was $2.561 billion, a year-on-year increase of 247%, with AI solutions and infrastructure revenue reaching $2.194 billion.

The AI business's operating loss was $1.257 billion, corresponding to an operating margin of approximately -49.1%, but this is a significant improvement from the Q1 operating loss of $2.469 billion; segment adjusted EBITDA turned positive to $1.146 billion from a Q1 loss of $609 million.

Meanwhile, the AI business's quarterly capital expenditure in Q2 reached $15.828 billion, higher than Q1's $7.723 billion. SpaceX's total Q2 capital expenditure reached $18.369 billion. Whether this massive investment can translate into sustained revenue and cash returns remains one of the market's key concerns.

Table of SpaceX's Q2 performance by its three business segments. Connectivity contributes the main profit, while AI segment capital expenditure reached $15.828 billion. Source: Bernstein

AI Compute Opens Revenue Potential; A Trillion in Revenue Can't Rely Solely on Satellite Internet

The most notable change from the earnings call was Musk moving the target year for reaching $1 trillion in annual revenue from 2031 to 2030, suggesting it could be achieved as early as 2029. Management also presented expectations for an annualized revenue run rate of at least $100 billion, though this Bernstein report summary does not explicitly state the corresponding timeframe.

To approach this target, SpaceX clearly cannot rely solely on Starlink user growth. Connectivity needs to continue expanding its consumer, enterprise, and government customer base; the AI business needs to convert massive compute capacity into long-term contracts and stable revenue; and Starship needs to reduce the costs of satellite deployment and orbital data center construction.

Among these, AI compute pricing is the most sensitive variable.

Musk stated that compute service pricing could remain in the range of $30 to $50 per watt, noting this assessment aligns with prices agreed upon in deals with Anthropic and Google. In contrast, Bernstein's current model still assumes compute prices will eventually revert to approximately $10 per watt.

This means that the $30 to $50 per watt range is not the base assumption already incorporated into Bernstein's $239 target price, but rather potential model upside. If SpaceX can maintain higher prices while expanding capacity, its long-term revenue and EBITDA could significantly exceed Bernstein's current forecasts.

However, the sustainability of this price range remains uncertain. Customer contract terms and cancellation clauses, AI compute supply and demand dynamics, semiconductor supply, and competitor expansion could all impact actual realized prices.

Capacity expansion targets are similarly aggressive. SpaceX's nominal compute capacity was 1.4 GW at the end of Q2. The company expects to exceed 2 GW by the end of 2026, approach 10 GW by the end of 2027, and move toward 20 GW in 2028. If this pace is realized, SpaceX's business structure will evolve beyond just rocket launches and satellite internet, extending further into large-scale AI infrastructure.

Key financial and valuation projection table. Bernstein forecasts SpaceX's revenue for 2025-2027 to be $18.674 billion, $40.236 billion, and $84.990 billion respectively, with the EV/Adjusted EBITDA multiple decreasing from 245.7x to 37.2x.

The Prerequisite for High-Frequency Launches is Full Reusability for Starship

In SpaceX's valuation framework, Connectivity answers the question "Is there a current profit foundation?", AI compute answers "How much faster can revenue grow?", and Starship answers "Can future scale be achieved at a sufficiently low cost?"

If SpaceX is to approach $1 trillion in annual revenue around 2030, relying solely on Starlink user growth is insufficient. Starship's launch frequency, payload capacity, and degree of full reusability will directly impact the costs of next-generation Starlink satellite deployment, orbital data center construction, and the expansion of other space businesses.

Management has still presented a very aggressive timeline. The company plans to continue advancing Starship orbital flights and V3 satellite deployment, while attempting more complex booster and upper stage recovery maneuvers. Its long-term goal is to approach a daily launch rate by the end of 2027, operating five launch pads, with two in Texas and three in Florida.

Achieving this frequency requires SpaceX not only to reuse the booster but also to solve the upper stage recovery problem for Starship. Bernstein believes a durable heat shield is key to full upper stage reusability. Musk indicated that flight number 13 may have addressed the heat shield issue, but analysis is not yet complete and will require further flights for validation.

Regulatory approvals, launch pad construction, flight anomalies, and iteration cycles could also affect the pace at which Starship transitions from high-frequency testing to industrialized operations. Therefore, full reusability remains the most critical, yet also the most uncertain, component in Bernstein's valuation model.

The $239 Target Price Relies on Three Pillars Being Realized in Tandem

Bernstein's $239 12-month target price is derived by calculating the 2030 enterprise value based on projected 2031 EBITDA for each business, using sum-of-the-parts valuation and forward EV/EBITDA multiples, then discounting each segment's valuation back to mid-2027. Connectivity and AI are discounted using late-stage venture capital discount rates of 25% and 35%, respectively.

Notably, Bernstein's model projects SpaceX's 2031 revenue at $554 billion, significantly lower than management's $1 trillion target. Its long-term compute price assumption also remains a reversion to approximately $10 per watt, not the $30 to $50 per watt suggested by Musk.

Therefore, the $239 target price does not require SpaceX to fully achieve all of management's vision but still incorporates strong business expansion assumptions. It requires at least three elements to be realized in tandem: continued profit growth from Connectivity, AI compute translating high capital expenditure into scaled revenue, and Starship achieving its planned full reusability milestones.

SpaceX's stock price has declined noticeably since its IPO, yet Bernstein maintains its $239 price target and Outperform rating. Source: Bernstein

This also explains why SpaceX's stock price fell significantly after the earnings release despite Q2 revenue and earnings per share exceeding expectations. Quarterly performance can only demonstrate that current growth remains strong; it cannot directly alleviate market concerns about AI investment returns, post-lock-up stock supply, and Starship execution risk.

If AI compute pricing can be maintained in the $30 to $50 per watt range for a longer duration, Starship's full reusability progresses as planned, and Starlink consumer and enterprise customer growth continues, Bernstein's current model still has room for upward revision. Conversely, if compute contract fulfillment, semiconductor supply, or Starship development progress falls short of expectations, the $239 target price itself will face pressure.

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Related Questions

QWhat is Bernstein's target price for SpaceX and what is the implied upside based on the August 4th closing price?

ABernstein maintains a target price of $239 for SpaceX. Based on the August 4th closing price of $125.33, this represents an implied upside of approximately 91%.

QAccording to the article, what are the three key elements Bernstein's $239 target price relies on being fulfilled?

ABernstein's $239 target price relies on three key elements: 1) Continued profit growth from the Connectivity (Starlink) business, 2) AI computing transforming high capital expenditures into scaled revenue, and 3) Starship successfully achieving full and rapid reusability as planned.

QWhat was SpaceX's Q2 revenue and how did it compare to market expectations?

ASpaceX's Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, representing 92% year-over-year growth. This significantly exceeded market expectations, which Bernstein cited as $6.546 billion and another consensus at $6.9 billion.

QWhat is the critical difference between Bernstein's and SpaceX management's assumptions regarding the long-term price of AI computing power?

AThe critical difference is the assumed long-term price per watt for AI computing. SpaceX management (Musk) suggests prices could remain in the $30-$50/watt range based on recent deals. In contrast, Bernstein's valuation model still assumes the price will eventually fall to around $10/watt.

QWhy did SpaceX's stock price fall sharply after the release of its strong Q2 earnings, according to the article?

AThe stock price fell because the market was looking beyond the strong quarterly results. Investors were simultaneously weighing concerns about the return on massive AI capital expenditures, potential selling pressure from the post-IPO lockup expiration, and the execution risk of Starship achieving high-frequency, low-cost launch capability.

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This dual approach empowers it to build a rich repository of domain-specific knowledge, enhancing its performance in task execution. Planning Over Long Task Horizons: Agent S employs experience-augmented hierarchical planning, a strategic approach that facilitates efficient breakdown and execution of intricate tasks. This feature significantly enhances its ability to manage multiple subtasks efficiently and effectively. Handling Dynamic, Non-Uniform Interfaces: The project introduces the Agent-Computer Interface (ACI), an innovative solution that enhances the interaction between agents and users. Utilizing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), Agent S can navigate and manipulate diverse graphical user interfaces seamlessly. Through these pioneering features, Agent S provides a robust framework that addresses the complexities involved in automating human interaction with machines, setting the stage for myriad applications in AI and beyond. Who is the Creator of Agent S? While the concept of Agent S is fundamentally innovative, specific information about its creator remains elusive. The creator is currently unknown, which highlights either the nascent stage of the project or the strategic choice to keep founding members under wraps. Regardless of anonymity, the focus remains on the framework's capabilities and potential. Who are the Investors of Agent S? As Agent S is relatively new in the cryptographic ecosystem, detailed information regarding its investors and financial backers is not explicitly documented. The lack of publicly available insights into the investment foundations or organisations supporting the project raises questions about its funding structure and development roadmap. Understanding the backing is crucial for gauging the project's sustainability and potential market impact. How Does Agent S Work? At the core of Agent S lies cutting-edge technology that enables it to function effectively in diverse settings. Its operational model is built around several key features: Human-like Computer Interaction: The framework offers advanced AI planning, striving to make interactions with computers more intuitive. By mimicking human behaviour in tasks execution, it promises to elevate user experiences. Narrative Memory: Employed to leverage high-level experiences, Agent S utilises narrative memory to keep track of task histories, thereby enhancing its decision-making processes. Episodic Memory: This feature provides users with step-by-step guidance, allowing the framework to offer contextual support as tasks unfold. Support for OpenACI: With the ability to run locally, Agent S allows users to maintain control over their interactions and workflows, aligning with the decentralised ethos of Web3. Easy Integration with External APIs: Its versatility and compatibility with various AI platforms ensure that Agent S can fit seamlessly into existing technological ecosystems, making it an appealing choice for developers and organisations. These functionalities collectively contribute to Agent S's unique position within the crypto space, as it automates complex, multi-step tasks with minimal human intervention. As the project evolves, its potential applications in Web3 could redefine how digital interactions unfold. Timeline of Agent S The development and milestones of Agent S can be encapsulated in a timeline that highlights its significant events: September 27, 2024: The concept of Agent S was launched in a comprehensive research paper titled “An Open Agentic Framework that Uses Computers Like a Human,” showcasing the groundwork for the project. October 10, 2024: The research paper was made publicly available on arXiv, offering an in-depth exploration of the framework and its performance evaluation based on the OSWorld benchmark. October 12, 2024: A video presentation was released, providing a visual insight into the capabilities and features of Agent S, further engaging potential users and investors. These markers in the timeline not only illustrate the progress of Agent S but also indicate its commitment to transparency and community engagement. Key Points About Agent S As the Agent S framework continues to evolve, several key attributes stand out, underscoring its innovative nature and potential: Innovative Framework: Designed to provide an intuitive use of computers akin to human interaction, Agent S brings a novel approach to task automation. Autonomous Interaction: The ability to interact autonomously with computers through GUI signifies a leap towards more intelligent and efficient computing solutions. Complex Task Automation: With its robust methodology, it can automate complex, multi-step tasks, making processes faster and less error-prone. Continuous Improvement: The learning mechanisms enable Agent S to improve from past experiences, continually enhancing its performance and efficacy. Versatility: Its adaptability across different operating environments like OSWorld and WindowsAgentArena ensures that it can serve a broad range of applications. As Agent S positions itself in the Web3 and crypto landscape, its potential to enhance interaction capabilities and automate processes signifies a significant advancement in AI technologies. Through its innovative framework, Agent S exemplifies the future of digital interactions, promising a more seamless and efficient experience for users across various industries. Conclusion Agent S represents a bold leap forward in the marriage of AI and Web3, with the capacity to redefine how we interact with technology. While still in its early stages, the possibilities for its application are vast and compelling. Through its comprehensive framework addressing critical challenges, Agent S aims to bring autonomous interactions to the forefront of the digital experience. As we move deeper into the realms of cryptocurrency and decentralisation, projects like Agent S will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping the future of technology and human-computer collaboration.

974 Total ViewsPublished 2025.01.14Updated 2025.01.14

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