Analyst Who Predicted The Bitcoin Crash from $82,000 Reveals What’s Next

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-06-03Last updated on 2026-06-03

Abstract

A crypto analyst known as Tony, who previously predicted Bitcoin's drop from around $82,000, shares his outlook for the leading cryptocurrency. He asserts that Bitcoin is currently in a bear cycle and is likely to decline further, potentially setting new lows this year. Tony points to technical factors like the 200-day moving average and Fibonacci levels as resistance. He outlines a potential scenario where Bitcoin could see a fake breakout above $85,000 to trap retail traders before falling to new lows. His chart analysis suggests possible declines to around $50,000 by July, with a cycle bottom potentially below $40,000. Tony notes that while short-term bounces, possibly from the $67,000 region, could occur, the main trend remains downward. Another analyst, Colin, suggests the $65,000-$66,000 range might offer short-term support for a bounce but reiterates that a retest of $60,000 and lower is still likely, as Bitcoin has not yet seen the typical >70% decline from its peak observed in past bear cycles. Bitcoin is currently trading around $66,300.

Crypto analyst Tony, who predicted the Bitcoin crash from the local top of around $82,000, has revealed what’s next for the leading crypto. He also explained why BTC is likely to set new lows over the coming months before potentially bottoming in this bear cycle.

Analyst Who Predicted The Bitcoin Crash Reveals What’s Next

In an X post, Tony stated that Bitcoin crashed from $82,000 for a reason, as the 200 MA has always been an important resistance level during bear markets. He also pointed to the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels, where BTC was trading at. As for what’s next, the analyst indicated that Bitcoin is likely to decline further, noting a high probability it will set a new low during the summer months.

He also pointed to an alternative trap scenario where Bitcoin sees a fake breakout above $85,000 to lure retail traders in, followed by the same dump and a break to new lows. Whatever scenario plays out, Tony noted, it will not change the fact that BTC is in a bear cycle and will make new lows this year.

Source: Chart from Tony on X

His accompanying chart showed that Bitcoin could still drop to around $50,000 by July, and also signaled that BTC could decline below $40,000 before it bottoms in this cycle. Meanwhile, in another X post commenting on the current price action, Tony noted that BTC has broken the ascending channel and is trading below the Ichimoku Cloud, a bearish signal.

Tony said that he is expecting a bounce from the $67,000 region into the $74,000 area, followed by a move to make new lows below $60,000. He further remarked that the bear trap is likely over and that the main trend is still down, which is why he expects new lows this year. He added that short-term bounces are possible, but a bull market is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

A Short-Term Bounce Could Occur Around This Region

In an X post, crypto analyst Colin stated that the range between $65,000 and $66,000 appears to be a reasonable support level for a short-term bounce. He noted that the bounce duration could be for weeks or a couple of months. However, the analyst added that BTC retesting $60,000 is still highly likely and that breaking low this year is still a possibility.

Colin stated that the February low of $60,000 is unlikely to be Bitcoin’s bottom in this bear cycle. He explained that BTC has always suffered losses of over 70% in past bear cycles, but the leading crypto has yet to record such a loss in this cycle from its October high of $126,000.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $66,300, down over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

BTC trading at $67,211 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Related Questions

QAccording to analyst Tony, what is the main reason why Bitcoin crashed from around $82,000?

AAccording to analyst Tony, Bitcoin crashed from around $82,000 because the 200-day Moving Average (200 MA) has always been an important resistance level during bear markets, and it was trading near the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels at that time.

QWhat are the two possible scenarios for Bitcoin's price action that Tony describes, and what is the common outcome for both?

AThe two scenarios are: 1) Bitcoin continues to decline further and sets a new low. 2) Bitcoin experiences a fake breakout above $85,000 to lure in retail traders, followed by a dump and a break to new lows. The common outcome for both scenarios is that Bitcoin is in a bear cycle and will make new lows this year.

QBased on Tony's chart analysis, to what price level could Bitcoin potentially drop by July, and what is the possible bottom for this cycle?

ABased on Tony's chart analysis, Bitcoin could drop to around $50,000 by July. The chart also signals that Bitcoin could decline below $40,000 before it bottoms in this cycle.

QWhat key technical levels does analyst Colin identify as a potential support zone for a short-term Bitcoin bounce?

AAnalyst Colin identifies the range between $65,000 and $66,000 as a reasonable support level for a potential short-term bounce.

QWhy does Colin believe the February low of $60,000 is unlikely to be the bottom for Bitcoin in this bear cycle?

AColin believes this because Bitcoin has historically suffered losses of over 70% in past bear cycles. From its October high of $126,000, Bitcoin has not yet recorded such a significant loss in the current cycle, making the $60,000 low unlikely to be the final bottom.

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The article analyzes Bitcoin's sharp decline amid a shift in macroeconomic expectations, with strong US job data leading markets to price out Fed rate cuts. Bitcoin fell 13% to around $67,000, triggering significant outflows from US spot ETFs and indicating institutional de-risking. On-chain data confirms a bearish structure. Price has dropped back into the "bear market range," with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis falling below a key mean level—a pattern last seen in early 2022. The profitability bias has collapsed, with loss realization now dominating, mirroring a panic wave from February. Recent buyers who accumulated near the $82k top are under pressure, and loss realization is accelerating across both short-term and long-term holder cohorts. Off-chain, the rally failed at the aggregate US ETF cost basis near $83k, turning it into resistance. Spot market demand has deteriorated sharply, with sellers dominating order books. While a major long liquidation event cleared over $400M in leverage, spot buyers have not returned to absorb supply. Options markets show sustained demand for downside protection (elevated put premiums) but not panic, with volatility premiums near three-month highs. The conclusion is that the market remains fragile, with overhead supply from trapped ETF investors, weak spot demand, and accelerating losses. Without a return of spot buying and a reclaim of key cost bases, Bitcoin is vulnerable to further downside within the prevailing bear market structure.

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