As the influence of long-term investors grows in the Bitcoin market, the share of short-term speculative transactions has fallen to its lowest level in recent years. In his latest assessment, Axel Adler Jr., an analyst at the blockchain analysis platform CryptoQuant, emphasized that while the supply of Bitcoin is increasingly concentrated in the hands of long-term investors, this structural change in itself does not necessarily mean a price increase.
According to data provided by Adler, the share of short-term investors in the realized market capitalization has fallen to 23.5%, reaching its lowest level in recent years. The analyst believes this percentage has been below the current level for only about 4% of Bitcoin's history.
In contrast, the share of long-term investors has risen to 52.5%. This figure is quite close to the historical peak of 55% recorded in 2018. It is also noteworthy that just three months ago, the share of short-term investors was 40%, and that of long-term investors was 42%. The latest data shows that Bitcoin is increasingly transitioning from the hands of short-term investors into the hands of long-term investors.
In the analyst's view, the decrease in the share of short-term investors indicates weakening speculative activity in the market and limited inflow of new capital. On the other hand, the increase in the share of long-term investors suggests that bitcoins are being held for longer periods without moving, and that the supply is concentrated in the hands of a group of investors who can be characterized as 'strong hands'.
However, Adler noted that this pattern should not be automatically interpreted as a bullish signal. He stated that unless a significant recovery in demand occurs, low trading activity may persist, and prices could remain under pressure.
The analyst pointed out that the current outlook has similarities with the bear market bottom of 2022-2023. During that period, as the share of long-term investors in the market increased, an acceleration in the inflow of new capital was required for price recovery.
*This is not investment advice.
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