Over the past seven days, Ethereum has demonstrated improved performance: its value increased by nearly 31%, and it is currently trading at approximately $2,495.
However, despite this seven-day surge, the two most popular trackers monitoring the altcoin season have yet to declare it an altcoin season. Traders, in turn, can only compare the rapid rise of $ETH with indicators that remain in a neutral position.
The Rally is Real, But Its Scale is Limited
$ETH is trading around $2,494.68, having gained 2.59% for the day and 31.01% for the week. Bitcoin, priced at around $78,411, showed a weekly increase of 23.25%.
$XRP and Zcash ($ZEC) are just some of the cryptocurrencies that have outperformed $ETH over the past seven days. $XRP rose approximately 49%, while $ZEC surged about 64% over the same period.
However, Bitcoin still leads the market in total market capitalization, accounting for over 59% of the market. $ETH holds about 11.4% share. Thus, there is no clear capital outflow from BTC. Overall, market sentiment is tense, with CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed Index scoring 80 out of 100.
What Exactly Do These Indexes Measure
Two indexes are the defi (most commonly used by traders) term for tracking the long-elusive altcoin season. The altcoin season is defined based on certain criteria by companies CoinMarketCap and BlockchainCenter. Both companies have indexes that help them determine whether the season has begun or not.
According to CoinMarketCap, an altcoin season occurs only when at least 75% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin over 90 days. If this figure is 25% or less, the site calls that period a Bitcoin season.
BlockchainCenter applies a similar rule to the top 50 most popular cryptocurrencies. So, if at least 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies perform better than Bitcoin over 90 days, then the altcoin season begins. At the time of checking, this figure was 43, which is below the threshold for the start of an altcoin season.
According to BlockchainCenter's own calculations, it has been over 332 days since the last altcoin season. Both metrics exclude stablecoins, such as Tether, and asset-backed wrappers, such as WBTC and stETH.
Glassnode wrote on X that the altcoin market "has entered a state of optimism," reporting that 85% of altcoins have pushed funding rates above average, which the company believes is the highest reading on this metric since Bitcoin hit its all-time highs. "During an altcoin season, such conditions can persist for many weeks," added Glassnode.
Hayes Bets on Ethereum's Leadership
In an interview with Laura Shin, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that Ethereum is now his second-largest asset after Bitcoin, noting that $ETH's failure to reclaim its 2021 high leaves it room to catch up and that it carries much less risk of going to zero than smaller tokens. He said that a decisive breakout above $3,000 could push the price above $5,000.
In an interview with the Altcoin Daily podcast, Hayes went even further, predicting that $ETH will outperform all other large-cap assets in this liquidity-driven recovery and could help reduce Bitcoin dominance to near 40%.
Why Caution is Necessary
Recent history explains this hesitation. Cryptopolitan reported that altcoin selling reached record highs, with the seasonal index at 49, and on June 30, more than 84% of altcoins traded below their 200-day moving average, marking the longest such period since the 2022 bear market.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted that altcoins have remained tightly correlated with Bitcoin, so a strong BTC no longer automatically pulls the entire rest of the market with it. This pattern has favored short, narrow "mini" rallies in a few liquid assets, rather than broad, comprehensive rises that the indexes are designed to identify.
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