How Will the Fed's Decision Affect Bitcoin? What is the Probability of Its Rise? Answers from Two Analyst Experts!

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2026-07-29Last updated on 2026-07-29

Abstract

The impact of the upcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Bitcoin may be more limited than in past cycles, according to analysts. While markets anticipate rates will remain unchanged, there is a 31.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike. K33 Research notes Bitcoin is trading sideways with near multi-year low volatility, while the Nasdaq shows strong upward momentum. This has caused the correlation between Bitcoin and the tech-heavy index to drop to its lowest levels in years, suggesting their price movements are diverging. Consequently, K33's Vetle Lunde states the Fed's decision may be less decisive for Bitcoin's price than historically, as low volatility and decoupling from Nasdaq trends could dampen its reaction. Similarly, analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicts Bitcoin's recent recovery will continue post-FOMC meeting, arguing the market has already priced in excessive fear and Bitcoin's resilience supports a continued rally.

Today, all attention in the Bitcoin and altcoin market is focused on the critical Federal Reserve meeting. Although the main scenario expected by the market is for interest rates to remain unchanged, a rate hike is not completely off the table. According to CME FedWatchTool, the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in July is estimated at 31.5%.

Although expectations remain mixed, leading cryptocurrency analytics firm K33 Research suggested that the impact of the upcoming Fed interest rate decision on Bitcoin could be less significant and more limited compared to previous cycles.

Fed's Decision May Have a Limited Impact on Bitcoin!

K33 Research Head of Research Vetle Lunde stated in a report that Nasdaq entered July with strong upward momentum and significant positioning, while Bitcoin continued to trade sideways with volatility near multi-year lows.

According to Lunde, this situation has caused the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq to approach its lowest levels in recent years, suggesting that the price movements of these two assets may increasingly diverge.

Therefore, Lunde stated that this Fed decision may not be as decisive for the price of $BTC as in the past. According to Lunde, Bitcoin's low volatility and sideways movement (leading to a dampened response to macroeconomic events), along with the divergence in price behavior from the Nasdaq index, could limit the impact of Fed decisions on $BTC and the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin's Rally May Continue Even After the FOMC Meeting!

Apart from K33 Research, another analyst believes the Fed's decision will have a limited impact on $BTC. Popular analyst Michael van de Poppe predicts that the rise in $BTC will continue even after the FOMC meeting.

Van de Poppe asserts that Bitcoin has shown a confident recovery and is likely to continue its upward move after the FOMC meeting. He added that the market has already priced in excessive fear ahead of the FOMC meeting, and Bitcoin's strong resilience supports the view that the rally will persist.

*This is not investment advice.

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