揭秘本轮大涨前市场动向，大型机构与散户实现双赢 | CFTC 比特币持仓周报

Foresight NewsPublished on 2023-01-16Last updated on 2023-01-16

Abstract

该统计周期结束后比特币价格迎来了一轮快速上涨，因此在该统计周期内哪几类账户成功「预见」到了这轮行情，是本期周报的主要看点。

1 月 14 日公布的最新一期 CFTC CME 比特币持仓周报（ 1 月 4 日 - 1 月 10 日）显示，比特币标准合约总持仓量自 14530 上升至 14891，该数值相比前一统计周期略有反弹，不过涨幅非常有限。该统计周期结束后比特币价格迎来了一轮快速上涨，因此在该统计周期内哪几类账户成功「预见」到了这轮行情，是本期周报的主要看点。

⠀

⠀

规模最大的经销商账户多头头寸自 300 上升至 306，空头头寸自 3643 进一步下降至 3567，该数值三周连降，这类账户在最新统计周期内又一次进行了净多调仓，延续了前两个统计周期的净多态度。作为最近一段时间里最明确的多方拥趸，规模最大的机构在最近这轮上涨发生前又一次做出了精准的预判，大型机构仍然是市场最具参考价值的风向标。

⠀

⠀

⠀

资管机构多头头寸自 5766 上升至 6212，空头头寸自 923 下降至 880，资管机构在最新统计周期内进行了清晰的净多调仓，一改此前几个统计周期的净空态度。在行情加速上涨前，资管机构同样做出了与此前判断截然相反的仓位调整，这类机构账户并没有执着于前几个统计周期的偏空思路，两类规模较大的机构账户也久违地达成了方向上的一致，短期市场看涨情绪高涨。

⠀

⠀

⠀

杠杆基金多头头寸自 4453 上升至 5217，空头头寸自 5650 上升至 6612，杠杆基金在最新统计周期内进行了多空双向同步增持，这类账户的多单持仓占比进一步小幅上升，不过多单持仓占比的上升幅度微乎其微，这类账户最近一段时间缺乏方向感的状况并未缓解，本轮上涨前夜杠杆基金仍然没有找到方向。

⠀

⠀

⠀

大户账户多头头寸自 1297 下降至 701，空头头寸自 1789 上升至 1991，该数值创出近 114 个统计周期新高，大户账户在最新统计周期内又一次进行了清晰的净空调仓，这类账户近两个统计周期内看空的态度相当明确，不过从结果上来看，大户账户在本轮上涨过程中恐损失惨重。

⠀

⠀

⠀

散户多头头寸自 1103 上升至 1339，空头头寸自 914 下降至 716，散户在最新统计周期内进行了净多调仓，这类账户在行情加速上涨前同样做出了正确的判断，散户与大型机构成为了短期市场的赢家。

⠀

⠀

⠀

比特币微型合约总持仓量自 6429 下降至 7262。

⠀

⠀

经销商账户多头头寸自 568 下降至 389，空头头寸自 0 上升至 534，这类账户在微型合约中进行了与标准合约相悖的处理，标准的风险对冲操作。

⠀

⠀

⠀

资管机构账户多头头寸自 138 张上升至 143 张，空头头寸自 1249 张下降至 1244 张，资管机构在微型合约中进行了小幅度的净多调仓，这一与标准合约同向的调仓处理展现出了资管机构最新统计周期内空转多的坚定程度。

⠀

⠀

⠀

杠杆基金多头头寸自 1521 上升至 1910，空头头寸自 2056 上升至 2698，杠杆基金在最新统计周期内进行了多空双向同步增持，多空持仓占比数据变化不大，这一调仓思路与标准合约相似，杠杆基金在两类账户中均没有表达出清晰的多空偏好。

⠀

⠀

⠀

大户多头头寸自 1325 上升至 1687，空头头寸自 1111 下降至 986，这类账户在最新统计周期内进行了与标准合约相悖的净多调仓，属于经典的对标准合约调仓的风险对冲，大户账户对于短线偏空的态度不受影响，不过通过微型合约的操作，损失得到了一定程度的控制。

⠀

⠀

⠀

散户多头头寸自 1975 上升至 2465，空头头寸自 1111 上升至 1132。

⠀

⠀

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
aPrioriAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
comp
CompoundCOMP
mantra
MantraMANTRA
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
velodrome
Velodrome FinanceVELODROME
brev
BrevisBREV
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE
jst
JUSTJST

Related Reads

Must-Watch Events Next Week｜CLARITY Act Could Face Senate Vote; SpaceX, Circle to Report Earnings (8.3-8.9)

**Summary: Key Events and Developments to Watch (August 3-9)** The upcoming week is marked by significant financial disclosures, key legislative deadlines, and notable product updates. **Major Financial Events:** Several companies are scheduled to release their Q2 2026 earnings. American Bitcoin (ABTC) will report on August 3, followed by SpaceX and Hut 8 Mining Corp. on August 4, and Circle on August 5. Notably, a significant portion of SpaceX shares (up to 12% of total shares) will be unlocked on August 6 following their earnings release. **Key Legislative Deadline:** The U.S. Senate faces an August 7 deadline to secure 60 votes for the CLARITY Act, a bipartisan bill aiming to establish a federal regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. The Senate may hold a full vote on the bill during the week. **Economic Data:** The U.S. July Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released on August 7, providing crucial labor market data. **Technology & Product Updates:** * **Shutdowns:** DeFi portfolio tracker Zapper and wallet app Ctrl Wallet will cease operations on August 3. * **Upgrades:** LayerZero will deprecate its v1 relayers on August 3. XRP Ledger's new version 3.3.0, featuring five new functions, is expected next week. * **AI:** Elon Musk announced that the advanced Grok 4.6 AI model is set for release around August 7. * **Bitcoin:** The BIP-110 forced signaling for a potential Bitcoin network change is scheduled to begin around August 8. **Other Notable Events:** Chinese robotics firm Unitree Tech has set its preliminary price inquiry for its IPO for August 5. South Korean exchange Upbit will delist AQT and AERGO tokens on August 3.

marsbit14m ago

Must-Watch Events Next Week｜CLARITY Act Could Face Senate Vote; SpaceX, Circle to Report Earnings (8.3-8.9)

marsbit14m ago

Stocks Are Plummeting More Sharply Than Cryptocurrencies. Where Has the Money Gone?

Stock Markets Plunge Deeper Than Cryptocurrencies: Where Did the Money Go? In late July, Seoul's Kospi index triggered circuit breakers for two consecutive days, plummeting over 40% from its June high. The collapse was led by heavyweight stocks like SK Hynix, whose record profits still disappointed investors, and devastating leveraged ETFs, with one major product losing over 83% of its value. This signaled a global, forced deleveraging targeting the most crowded trades. Interestingly, while stocks exhibited extreme volatility akin to crypto markets, Bitcoin rose nearly 15% in July after a prior steep drop. Analysis shows the money fleeing equities did not flow into Bitcoin. Instead, Bitcoin had already absorbed its sell-off in May-June, when U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw historic outflows. The true safe-haven beneficiary was gold, whose price rose over 20% year-on-year, highlighting a decoupling between Bitcoin and gold as "digital gold." The sell-off was a targeted unwinding of leveraged positions in tech and semiconductors, accelerated by broker-dealer risk management and shifts in the AI narrative, including new competition from Chinese memory chipmakers. The retreat path was clear: from high-valuation tech stocks to cash and U.S. Treasuries, then to gold. For Bitcoin to attract sustained institutional inflows, conditions like eased global liquidity pressure, a "soft-landing" Fed rate cut, and U.S. regulatory clarity via legislation like the stalled CLARITY Act are needed. Currently, Bitcoin is not a safe haven but an already-cleared asset. Its low correlation with tech stocks, however, makes it a potential diversification play for institutional portfolios once the storm passes. The money isn't here yet, but the positioning is underway.

marsbit14m ago

Stocks Are Plummeting More Sharply Than Cryptocurrencies. Where Has the Money Gone?

marsbit14m ago

In Conversation with Ray Dalio: We Are Currently in an AI Bubble, with 1% of My Portfolio in Bitcoin

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns in an interview that the current AI boom shows classic bubble characteristics, which could lead to significant economic downturns as seen in past cycles like 1929 or 2000. He explains that speculative enthusiasm, fueled by debt and overvaluation, often precedes a crash when rising rates or taxation force asset sales, causing widespread losses and recession. Dalio also outlines his "Big Cycle" theory, describing an approximate 80-year pattern where widening wealth gaps, massive government deficits, and shifting geopolitical power (like China's rise) create internal conflict and global instability. He emphasizes that we are in a late-cycle, transitional phase where traditional powers like the US and UK face decline. For personal wealth protection, Dalio advises diversification beyond cash into assets like stocks, bonds, real estate, and particularly gold, which he prefers over Bitcoin. While he holds about 1% of his portfolio in Bitcoin as a non-printable hard asset, he views gold as more secure from technological or governmental threats. Regarding AI's impact, Dalio believes it will disproportionately benefit capital owners, worsening inequality by replacing both physical and cognitive labor. He suggests that human intuition and emotional intelligence, combined with AI, will be key for future workers. On taxation, Dalio argues that wealth taxes are impractical and risk triggering asset sell-offs, reducing productive investment. He points to the UK as a cautionary example of debt, low productivity, and political strife. Geopolitically, Dalio foresees a more regionalized world, with the US showing weakness in prolonged conflicts like with Iran, akin to past imperial declines. The ideal outcome, he suggests, is coexisting powerful blocs (e.g., Americas, China-Asia Pacific) without major war.

marsbit4h ago

In Conversation with Ray Dalio: We Are Currently in an AI Bubble, with 1% of My Portfolio in Bitcoin

marsbit4h ago

Daily 7.2 Trillion KRW: Foreign Capital's Record Net Buying on Friday! Wall Street Says Headwinds for Korean Stock Fund Flows Have Subsided

South Korean stock market sees a dramatic shift in fund flows. On July 31, foreign investors made a record net purchase of approximately KRW 7.2 trillion in KOSPI stocks, marking a fundamental reversal from the persistent large-scale net outflows seen in previous months. This contributed to a significant narrowing of foreign net selling in July to KRW 9.8 trillion, down sharply from KRW 48.4 trillion in June and KRW 44.5 trillion in May. Simultaneously, domestic institutional pressure eased. South Korean pension funds and asset managers turned to a net buying position in July, purchasing KRW 1.0 trillion worth of KOSPI shares, contrasting with net sales in May and June. Market volatility is expected to be dampened by new financial regulations. Effective July 31, the Financial Services Commission tightened access for retail investors to single-stock leveraged ETFs by raising the minimum cash deposit requirement. Trading volumes for these products subsequently dropped to about 50% of their monthly average. Citigroup Research maintains its year-end KOSPI target of 10,000 points. The firm cites several supportive factors: the substantial easing of headwinds from capital outflows, a robust fundamental outlook for the semiconductor sector, historically low market valuations, strong economic fundamentals, and the potential for policy support from financial authorities if needed.

marsbit4h ago

Daily 7.2 Trillion KRW: Foreign Capital's Record Net Buying on Friday! Wall Street Says Headwinds for Korean Stock Fund Flows Have Subsided

marsbit4h ago

Breaking! OpenAI's Next-Gen AI Solves 10 Fields Medal-Level Problems

OpenAI's next-generation AI model Astra achieves breakthroughs in 10 long-standing mathematical conjectures. The results, including constructing the first known infinite, finitely presented non-sofic group—resolving a major question since 1999—and advancing the high-dimensional sphere packing problem beyond a 46-year-old barrier, are detailed in a 249-page paper. Key proofs have been formally verified using Lean 4. The AI also refuted a rigidity conjecture by Fields Medalist Alain Connes. According to OpenAI, generating these proofs cost under $2,000. Experts describe the findings as potentially Fields Medal-worthy and a landmark moment for both mathematics and AI, showcasing the model's ability to produce profound, human-like reasoning across diverse fields like group theory, geometry, and operator algebras.

marsbit5h ago

Breaking! OpenAI's Next-Gen AI Solves 10 Fields Medal-Level Problems

marsbit5h ago

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

1.4k Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions