2023加密矿企求生指南

PanewsPublished on 2023-01-06Last updated on 2023-01-06

Abstract

对于比特币矿企来说,2022年无疑是一场风暴。矿企们应该汲取哪些经验教训?该如何度过漫漫熊市?

对于比特币矿企来说,2022年无疑是一场风暴。

美联储加息增加了资金成本、比特币网络算力“顽固性”上涨和价格暴跌导致企业管理策略失效,最终导致开采比特币所得利润变得越来越低。数据不会说谎,美股上市的5家规模最大的加密矿企股价都遭遇滑铁卢,Core Scientific(CORZ)、Riot Blockchain(RIOT)、Bitfarms(BITF)、Iris Energy(IREN)和 CleanSpark(CLSK)交易价格已分别下跌99%、85%、91%、92%和79%。

不过,别担心“比特币死亡”。尽管比特币矿企的确需要采取一些应对措施(比如重组或实施更合理的企业战略),但不意味着这些上市公司会因为市场风暴而倒闭。

比特币矿企之前做错了哪些事?

在过去的几年里,一些比特币矿企会选择出售自己开采的BTC,而不是选择通过债务和其他资本作为业务运营资金,实际上,只有当以下两种情况成立时这种模式才能奏效:

1、比特币价格持续上涨,导致希望参与加密市场的人越来越多;

2、比特币挖矿资金成本很低,导致为追求利润希望参与挖矿的人越来越多。

虽然过去几年上述两个场景都有发生,然而在比特币挖矿市场却发生了非常奇怪的状况,即:比特币矿企并没有通过抛售BTC,而是通过一些“金融手段”来赚钱。

理论上,比特币矿企的运营模式应该是:矿企购买BTC矿机来开采BTC,出售一部分开采出来的BTC,将所得资金用来支付维系企业运营所需的费用。

可在现实中,比特币矿企的运营模式是这样的:矿企购买BTC矿机来开采BTC,同时从债务市场或证券市场借贷来获取资金,将所得资金用来支付维系企业运营所需的费用。

当然,并非所有比特币矿企都这么做,但像MarathonDigital这样的挖矿公司已经把过去26个月开采的BTC都塞进了资产负债表且没有出售任何BTC来支付自己的运营费用,我们其实能够从中窥见一斑。显然,这种做法是有问题的,因为企业应该在不依赖资本市场的情况下持续、稳健地运营,然后通过正确的盈利模式来赚钱,否则就会出问题。

现在,潮水已经褪去——比特币价格不断下降、资金成本不断增加、比特币挖矿竞争越来越激烈,每家矿企都陷入到一个受伤的世界中,CoreScientific宣布破产、Bitfarm首席执行官辞职、Argo无奈重组。幸运的是,所有这些都发生在2022年。

2023年加密矿企求生指南

当时间来到2023年,相信每家苦苦挣扎的比特币矿企都在问一个问题:该怎么办?坦率地说,虽然加密市场还没有在悲观情绪中缓过神,但依然有理由保持乐观。

首先,比特币矿企应该在有利可图的时候开采BTC,并在无利可图的时候关机。简单来说,每台矿机都可以轻松关闭和打开。可是在实际操作过程中,矿企并没有根据BTC价格或电价情况灵活调配矿机的启停。相反,比特币矿企往往会被比特币价格波动欠着鼻子走,甚至会在无利可图的市场环境下继续挖矿。所以,比特币矿企需要执行灵活、有效的“资金管理策略”,而不是局限于“持有全部开采的BTC”这种思维,这种策略要求比特币矿企根据市场状况(比如BTC价格开始下跌、电价开始上涨,或两者同时发生)选择抛售部分已开采的BTC,以换取资金来支持业务运营。

其次,关注公司现金流。对于上市比特币矿企而言,公开市场的投资者不仅仅关注企业估值是否具有上行潜力,也关注公司现金流的可预测性。现在的问题是,许多比特币矿企的现金流严重缺失,这里又要再次强调资金管理解决方案的重要性,因为一个适当的资金管理解决方案必须能预测比特币矿企的盈利能力,并在出现不平衡的时候及时做出决策,比如:不允许矿企在牛市期间尽可能多地持有BTC(寄希望于高价出售),不允许从事额外的金融套利业务(因为矿企的主要业务就是挖矿),这样才能让比特币矿企更轻松地应对市场压力。

总结

2023年无论发生什么,我们都希望那些在2022年经历了市场风暴和低迷的比特币矿企能够做出一些改变,尤其是那些大型上市矿企,他们应该重新审视自己的战略,这样才能为未来可持续发展。

但愿比特币矿企能从2022年惨烈的市场教训中学到一些东西。

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