2022年加密市场最后一周行情速览：市场萎靡不振，Layer2表现亮眼

Foresight VenturesPublished on 2022-12-30Last updated on 2022-12-30

Abstract

散户开始押注做多，静待市场复苏中

市场观点：

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1、宏观流动性

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货币流动性趋紧。日本央行变相加息，短期全球流动性依然紧张。美联储上周表示只要美国通胀水平居高不下,可能会在23年加速加息,并可能会将高利率维持在更长的时间。持续的资金收缩可能会引发市场黑天鹅事件，这也为美联储降息提供了借口。美股持续下跌，加密市场近两周相对美股表现坚强。2022年加密市场最后一周行情速览：市场萎靡不振，Layer2表现亮眼

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2、全市场行情

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市值排名前100涨幅榜：

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本周加密市场普跌行情，BTC下跌2%。近来链上市场的主要亮点是L2，arbitrum和optimisim都比主网表现更活跃，zk生态发展略显延迟。过去两个月里，所有以太坊交易中有60%发生在L2上。

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SOL:创阶段性新低。Solana链上两个最大的NFT项目转向ETH链和Polygon链。SOL最大投资者之一的Multicoin Capital净值回撤90%，Alameda还在继续抛售SOL。

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BLD: 近期上涨70%。BLD是基于Cosmos生态的智能合约开发平台，主要卖点事可利用javascript语言。BLD是coinlist公募了8000万美元，团队来自谷歌微软。缺点是市值略大，明年1月有解锁。

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3、BTC 行情

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1) 链上数据

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以太坊合并一个月后，以太坊日排放量进入净通缩状态。但是转向POS导致以太坊的安全性与矿工无关，而与以太坊价格息息相关。L1公链价格的下跌，令Defi生态的锁仓量从高点下降了75%。目前以太坊的L2被op路线的optimism和arbitrum所主导，其他的解决方案如专业分工的celestia；zk路线的zksync、scroll、polygon的hermez也在迎头赶上。

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长期趋势指标MVRV-ZScore以市场总成本作为依据，反映市场总体盈利状态。当指标大于6时，是顶部区间；当指标小于2时，是底部区间。MVRV跌破关键水平1，持有者总体上处于亏损状态。当前指标为-0.24，处于绿色抄底区间。

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2) 期货行情

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期货资金费率：本周费率为主，市场情绪看多，ETH强于BTC。费率0.05-0.1%，多头杠杆较多，是市场短期顶部；费率-0.1-0%，空头杠杆较多，是市场短期底部。

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货持仓量：本周总持仓量略有增长，多头或酝酿反弹。全年来看，BTC的期货交易量下降了50%，ETH仅下降了30%。

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期货多空比：1.9。散户情绪偏向看多。多空比数据波动大，参考意义有所削弱。

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3）现货行情

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本周市场沉寂毫无波动，全市场交易量跌回上轮熊市2019年水平。加密市场市值在2022年开年时有2.2万亿美元，到年底仅有不到1万亿美元。这轮熊市BTC跌破2017年6月的上轮牛市高点，为历史上首次，市值排名前10的加密货币平均下跌80%以上。市场在静静等候最后一跌的靴子落地。

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市场数据：

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1、公链总锁仓量情况

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本周整体TVL变化较小，依旧维持向下趋势，本周下降0.86B，下降幅度为2.16%，下降幅度略低于BTC和ETH下跌幅度，呈现小币种持仓向主流转移，小币种跌幅更大的趋势。

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2、公链占比情况

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本周各链占比基本趋平，各链未出现较大变化，ETH链在上一轮牛市中，由于百花齐放的影响，一直处于占比逐渐下跌态势，自21年5月份Terra破灭后，出现了大幅增长后，受到Tron增势影响，再次出现缓慢下降，于7月中旬开始出现增长，截止目前占比增长4%，各链的生存空间逐渐减小。

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1）ETH锁仓量情况：

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2) BSC锁仓量情况:

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3）Tron锁仓量情况：

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4）Avalanche锁仓量情况：

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5）Polygon锁仓量情况：

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6）Arbitrum锁仓量情况：

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7）Optimism锁仓量情况：

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4、ETH Gas fee历史情况

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本周链上Gas出现小幅增长，未出现链上Gas激增现象，缺乏热点，当前链上转账平均费用约为0.91，Uniswap平均交易费用是3.1，Opensea的平均交易费用约为$1.2。通过链上Gas消耗可以看到近期出现两个新消耗大户，Voitz和Blur，Voitz是一款利率掉期的AMM协议，支持AAVE和Compound上的稳定币固定利率和浮动利率交换，也支持ETH质押协议Lido和Rocket的利率互换，在Uniswap的LP注入上增加了一些新创新；Blur是目前较火的ETH链聚合NFT市场，根据Gas消耗计算，当前交易量大概为Opensea的三分之一。

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5、NFT市场数据变化

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NFT-500市值：

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NFT市场交易概览：

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每周活跃项目数:

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NFT市场总值近期出现缓慢增长，从活跃项目数来看，已连续四周时间出现稳步增长，越来越多的项目将发行NFT后发行Token做为项目标配，虽然此时行情冷淡，但在下一周期时可能会出现NFT先于Token出现增长的情况。从近期交易情况来看，出现一款ASCIIBirds，虽显示的交易极为活跃且交易量极大，但从主流交易市场来看，可能为项目方自刷行为，并未在Opensea上出现交易，另一款老牌蓝筹项目Pudgy Penguins，在本周内出现交易量和交易笔数的双暴增，其地板价短期内增长一倍已达到6.5ETH。

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DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. 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What is $BITCOIN

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