Bankless：推动下一轮牛市出现的6个催化剂

深潮TechFlowPublished on 2022-12-27Last updated on 2022-12-27

Abstract

有足够的理由对未来持乐观态度并抱有希望。

今年一切都很糟糕。稳定币崩溃，对冲基金和贷款公司倒闭，以及所谓的顶级交易所爆炸。没有什么好掩饰的： 2022 年对加密货币来说是烂透了的一年。

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然而，在混乱中，该行业继续前行。不管你信不信，有很多理由对未来持乐观态度。

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这在今天听起来可能是一种期望......然而，随着创新的不断深入，另一个牛市将（最终）到来。此外，今年最大的爆炸性事件都是中心化实体的崩溃事件，直到今天，去中心化技术的价值主张从未如此清晰。

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我仍然认为加密货币需要很长时间才能恢复，但以下是我认为可能催化全新加密货币牛市的早期想法。

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1、BTC 作为法币的对冲

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要想让加密货币经历 2017 年和 2021 年的另一次牛市，比特币和以太坊必须再次领头。这两个主要货币占到了加密货币总市值的 55% ，有很多原因可以解释为什么投资者可能对它们重新产生兴趣。

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就比特币而言，围绕该资产的兴奋点仍然来自于，其作为对冲地缘政治风险和中央银行信誉下降的对冲工具。世界面临着令人悲痛的地缘政治风险，例如乌克兰的持续战争、中美之间的紧张关系以及世界许多国家的政治两极分化和不稳定。

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像美联储这样的中央银行的可信度已经前所未有的低，因为这些机构没有及时对其造成的通货膨胀作出反应，加重了其肆意印钞的错误。

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这种不确定性为 BTC 等资产的复兴创造了条件，因为投资者可能会在这个动荡的时代寻求非主权资产来储存他们的财富。

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2、ETH 作为互联网债券

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ETH 是另一种准备从加密货币作为法币替代物的新兴趣中受益的资产。

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ETH 不仅具有价值储存的特性，其发行率预计在区块空间需求稍有上升时就会出现通货紧缩，而且在过渡到 "PoS "之后，它现在正在为投资者提供收益。

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这种质押收益将帮助 ETH 对那些喜欢投资生产性资产的投资者变得越来越有吸引力。

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当然，它作为去信任抵押品和链上经济的指数的作用仍然没有改变，如果有的话，在 2022 年一连串的加密货币灾难中得到了进一步加强。

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3、DeFi 的复兴

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2022 年暴露了 CeFi 的不透明性和脆弱性--为 2023 年及以后 DeFi 的大举回归创造了条件。

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尽管中心化交易所、贷方和对冲基金破产了，但 DeFi 协议没有任何影响，继续按程序执行，没有停机。这些非托管的、透明的、去中心化的金融轨道证明了自己是一个坚固的基础，我们可以在此基础上进行重建。

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在 CeFi 爆炸的同时，DeFi 的许多令人兴奋的部门继续运送和开发创新产品。

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一种是流动性质押，在上海升级后，质押需求将飙升，许多新的协议，如 Rocket Pool、StakeWise、Frax ETH、Swell 和 Diva 等，准备与 Lido 和 Coinbase 等现有公司竞争。

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去中心化永续合约是另一个令人兴奋的领域，像 GMX、dYdX、Perpetual Protocol、Gains Network、Rage Trade、Cap Finance 等协议，正努力在 2023 年继续其增长轨迹，因为在 FTX 崩盘后更多的交易活动进入链上。

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4、非金融（某种程度）的应用

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交易和投机可能是目前加密货币最大的用例，但有许多类别的非金融应用准备继续增长，如去中心化的社交媒体，音乐 NFT 和加密货币游戏。

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去中心化的社交媒体平台一直是熊市中的增长点之一。

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像 Lens 和 Farcaster 这样的平台的用户群的扩张一直是只增不减的，而最近 Twitter 的混乱只是证明了抗审查的社交网络的优点，它为用户提供了对其受众的所有权和可移植性。

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5、音乐 NFT

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音乐 NFT 已经开始作为艺术家赚钱的一种新方式出现了。

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艺术家，特别是小艺术家，能够从向少数粉丝出售 NFT 中获得的收入远远超过他们在 Spotfiy 等平台上的流媒体收入，在这些平台上，中间商攫取了绝大部分创造的价值。

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虽然社区和市场仍然小众，但最近几个月，像 Sound 这样的音乐 NFT 平台在数量、用户和铸造等关键 KPI 方面出现了强劲增长。

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6、加密游戏

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在许多人看来，像 Axie Infinity 这样的靠玩赚钱的游戏令人难以置信，以及随后的衰落可能已经污染了这个空间，但 GameFi 仍然是加密领域另一个令人难以置信的激动人心的领域。

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区块链和 NFT 与游戏的交叉具有诱人的潜力，在过去的一年中，有数亿风险投资资金涌入该领域。

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考虑到流入该行业的智力和金融资本，我认为加密游戏成为热门更多的是时间问题，而不是是否会发生。

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保持希望

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旧的不去，新的不来。在价格下跌和项目破产的情况下，下一次牛市的种子已经种下。尽管我们可能现在看不出来，但有足够的理由对未来持乐观态度并抱有希望。

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这可能需要一些时间，但在 BTC 和 ETH 卷土重来、DeFi 复活，以及 Web3 社交、音乐 NFT 和加密游戏的兴起之间，有大量的理由正在告诉我们，为什么会相信加密市场会重回巅峰。

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