基于标普500在中期选举后的历史表现预测未来一年的市场表现

Cointelegraph中文Published on 2022-11-20Last updated on 2022-11-20

Abstract

宏观更新：市场对美国中期选举的反应。

消费者物价指数(CPI)已于上周四公布，它为我们提供了最新的通货膨胀指标。

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美国10月消费者物价指数较去年同期上涨7.7%。这低于预期的8%。甚至这一估计也低于今年2月的CPI数据。

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这标志着人们普遍认为通货膨胀可能终于要开始放缓了。

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市场像时钟一样反弹，标准普尔500指数在上周四攀升了5.5%。投资者认为通货膨胀这头猛兽已经被驯服，经济衰退近在咫尺，因此他们预计美联储(FED)可能会暂停加息，如果不改变政策，开始降息的话。

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换句话说：希望。

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市场因希望而反弹。

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但与收益报告或其他实证经济数据不同，希望并不是一个无懈可击的指标，不能为市场扭转其趋势和经济前景提供合理的理由。

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然而，最近发生的一件事可能为我们提供了一个窗口，让我们可以通过观察过去来确定未来，并预测未来一年的市场表现。

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那就是美国中期选举。

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中期选举奇迹

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美国中期选举为民众提供了一个改变国家方向、表达支持或不满的机会。它让民众有机会通过一项行动向现任者展示他们的成绩单：投票。

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在撰写本文时，一些竞赛仍在进行中。虽然民主党将继续控制参议院，但众议院仍有待争夺，尽管共和党以微弱优势领先。

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(目前，美国中期选举结果已出炉，共和党重夺众议院，民主党控制参议院。）

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基于我们过去所看到的情况，金融市场将如何反应呢？

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当参议院和众议院普遍发生变化，提供新的方向时，市场是否会暴跌？

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还是说，当国家保持现状(这将提供稳定并确保现有政策继续下去)时，市场会飙升？

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显然，市场并不关心结果如何。请看下面的图表。

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来源：美国银行

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事实证明，无论结果如何，市场都喜欢中期选举。

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自1962年以来，标准普尔500指数在中期选举后6个月和12个月期间的平均表现都优于选举前的12个月。

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此外，在1962年以来的15次中期选举中，标准普尔500指数在中期选举后的每6个月和12个月期间都产生正回报。在选举后的3个月期间，它只有4次陷入亏损。

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值得注意的是，在中期选举之前的12个月里，标准普尔500指数的平均回报率为-1%。这可能是由当时的金融状况和即将到来的选举的不稳定性共同造成的。

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进入中期选举年，社会和经济问题上潜在的政策波动代表着不稳定。

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市场绝对厌恶政治不稳定。

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但一旦尘埃落定，市场就会做出积极的反应。

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最引人注目的数字在上面表格底部的黄色框框中，我们在下面的表格中进行了部分重建。标准普尔500指数在中期选举年与非中期选举年的平均回报率对比相当惊人，根据时间框架的不同，前者是后者的两倍或三倍。

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数字说明了一切。

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快乐的日子即将到来吗？

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虽然10月份CPI数据确实低于预期，但这并不意味着通胀压力很快就会消失。

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随着乌克兰战争的持续，其他地区地缘政治紧张局势的加剧，以及在即将到来的冬天，能源价格飙升的可能性，我们可能还没有走出困境。

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这对股票和加密货币等风险资产来说是令人担忧的，因为这意味着美联储很可能会继续加息。尽管增量可能较小，但仍会减少市场流动性。

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因此，或许市场的反弹有点过早，我们应该预期未来几个月的波动会加剧。

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但从从上文强调的标普500指数在中期选举后的历史表现来看，我们可能会看到隧道尽头的曙光。

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事实上，该指数在中期选举后6个月和12个月的平均表现优于1928年的平均年化回报率11.82%。

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即使在上世纪70年代和80年代初，出现了高通货膨胀、高利率和金融危机导致的高波动性（与今天类似），标准普尔500指数仍然提供了可观的回报：

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正如老生常谈所言：历史不会重演，但它常常是相似的。

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如果过去的这一指标值得借鉴的话，那么风险投资者晚上可以睡得更安稳一些了。

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