HashkeyCapital邓超:关于Web3创投的10个精华观点

HashKey CapitalPublished on 2022-09-27Last updated on 2022-09-27

Abstract

区块链用户目前已经超过了三个亿。

9 月 24 日,万物岛 Web3 Coach 云端会客厅《万物生》请到 HashKey Capital 董事总经理邓超,围绕着“创”和“投”,分享其所见所闻所思。整个环节尽量减少了术语使用白话,让 Web2 的小伙伴能更快明白 Web3 。

万物岛与bfrenzDAO一同对直播内容进行了梳理,整理出超哥(邓超)关于 Web3 的10 个精华观点,分享给大家。以下内容均属独家,enjoy ——

万物岛buidler英木对话HashKey Capital 董事总经理邓超

1. Web2 大厂人拥抱 Web3 需要转变哪些思维方式?

区块链用户目前已经超过了三个亿。

当更多 Web2 有经验有能力有技术的人走进 Web3, Web3 才有机会走到下一个阶段。其中有很多从 Web2 进来的人都是带着 Web2 成功光环的,所以要做好 Web2 和 Web3 有区别的心理准备。Web2 和 Web3 从底层逻辑到评判标准都有差别。 最明显的差别是中心化和去中心化。

- 属性:Web3 具有金融属性和商业属性。

- 商业模式:两个模式像但本质有区别,例如我们去银行借贷一定要去银行这个中介,但是在链上我们没有中介, 通过协议来活动,效率高,有些人体验后便不愿意再回去传统的银行了。Web3 里不再倾向平台,开始倾向用户,用户更有发言权决定权。

- 产品设计:Web3 里 idea 最重要,可以没有设备甚至没有公司,以太坊提供平台,好的 idea 会吸引 builder。

- 融资:Web3 不依赖资本和传统 VC,一些项目甚至不希望有主导方。

- 平台与用户的关系:拿游戏来说,传统游戏认为 Web3 的游戏难用,Web3 游戏反而认为“你就拿我当氪金机器”。由此可以看出Web2 游戏看重用户体验,Web3 游戏也不希望把用户当机器,而是希望大家共进退共享。

- 推广:Web3 的推广“空投”,其实是把项目的所有权让出来。换句话说是传统营销花的经费,原来是从公司的资产负债表上拿出来,现在从公司的所有权里拿出来。

2. 赛道的选择

从创业者的角度来看,目前公链机会不是太大,但是这并不妨碍在区块链的底层技术层,现在的区块链还不够完善,在 Layer1 和 Layer2 这两层,仍然还有很多的机会。

基础设施还处于很初级的阶段。就像能够托管数字金融的银行在美国已经很成熟了,但在亚洲还没有。

很难一概而论哪些赛道是值得投资的,要从团队自己的基因和自己擅长的方面去做分析。

3. 大厂有没有在 Web3 创业成功案例?

有很多,有做游戏的,有做社交的,有做底层基础设施的...腾讯,阿里这些大厂的项目也都有。创业要有长线的思维不能看一个周期,比特币 6万进入市场的投资者可能觉得市场泡沫很大。

现在区块链的团队有很多都是华人主导的。华人比较低调, 但在这个行业里主导性很强。亚洲团队执行力很强擅长商业落地,西方更擅长创意性。Web3 吸引了越来越多 Web2的人进来,让这个行业开始进入商业应用的阶段,优势逐渐明显。要相信亚洲的团队,潜力无限。

4. 基于基础设施的功能点,还有创新机会吗?

在链的性能方面还是有很多机会的。第一:在方案上,以太坊的技术路线,扩容,一直在变化和调整。第二:在执行上, 代码开发。以太坊也会非常欢迎大家去做技术路线上的探索。

反而我认为,跨链,到最后可能需求并不是那么大。因为从用户角度来说,一旦在一个生态里,再迁移出去的难度会很大,所以很有可能最后区块链会归到一起,那么做跨链就没有什么吸引点。

除了性能方面,还有底层的安全计算、隐私等,行业都是需要的。

5. 关于中心化和去中心化

是否要做中心化,需要看项目而定。

如果做底层基础设施,比如公链,要尽量分散,越分散这个网络的信任才会越强。

如果是往上做应用,那平台可能需要一些中心化的东西。越靠近监管的地方,中心化的东西越多。举个例子,现在一些去中心化的交易所,监管都已经开始发牌照了。

底层是一个去中心化的技术,而商业应用就需要中心化(要与现实对接,非纯理想),因此不能一概而论。

6. 更看好什么样的创始人?

这个问题很难一概而论,没有典型画像。

一个项目能否做成,有很多要素。项目本身很重要,对于不同领域(底层技术/中间层/应用层/加密金融)要求也会不同。创始人需要有对产品对业务本身的理解(专业能力),以及懂得如何将产品商业化(商业设计)。创始人就像一个资源整合器,知道如何做成产品,如何推广如何大众化,甚至如何与监管沟通。

隔行如隔山,如果是从传统领域进军 Web3,很重要的一点是:要把传统领域的已成功的路径依赖先放下,要有开放心态,对行业有客观观察。

7. 国内 Web3 法规政策会调整吗?

很难做预判,不同的监管有不同的考虑。

全球区块链监管梳理:三大梯队。美国,走在最前面遥遥领先,框架最清晰,要求最严格,全球很多的监管都在看美国。第二梯队,新加坡、香港、日本、瑞士、法国、英国,监管框架清晰比美国走的更前一点点。第三个梯队,就是想弯道超车的,迪拜、马尔泰。

不同的地方不一样的法规,对于香港这些地方更多的是商业上的决策,自下而上,行业先发展起来再推动监管。而国内是自上而下,上面有很多宏观上的考虑。

不建议在国内做 token 相关的业务,因为在中国只要和 token 相关,监管就会谨慎一些。

8. 了解最新 Web3 信息有哪些好的渠道和媒体呢?

《虚拟资产和区块链投资指南》,基本把行业知识图谱、构成模块,如何投项目等认知与方法论做了总结,感兴趣可以看看。

推荐一些对我个人影响很大的行业人物:Chris Dixon(a16z 合伙人)看待行业具有前瞻性;Matt Huang(Paradigm 合伙人)看项目有独特看法研究很深;Ryan Selkis(Messari 创始人)每年会出 100 多页行业报告,大家能通过报告了解每年可关注的行业人物、行业热点,能方便梳理行业脉络。

学习好比搭房子,先有结构(框架)再砌砖(细节),这样事半功倍。

9. 预言机在 Web3 的应用价值

主要作用是把链上数据和应用连起来,Chainlink 已经做的不错了,但是距离大规模的商业化还有很长的路要走。大部分应用领域内或者中间层的机会还有很多。

现在的技术基础设施也撑不起大规模的商业化的量,所以需要有更多的人去做中间层、技术层。如果要去竞争,可以直面竞争做一样的事情,要不就差异化竞争就像链一样,通用型的链或者行业特定细分的链。机会是有的,要看自己的方向和策略。

10. 创业种子轮融资组合建议

看项目是在哪一端。

如果是特别偏向社区化,那就在社区里面募资,先空投,先把用户群体拿过来再去讨论 token,当 token 有价值的时候项目则有价格,有价格则会有资金来源。

如果偏传统商业应用化,那就是股权融资更多。在之前,基本上 70%-80% 都是 token 融资,20%-30% 是股权融资。到现在我们能看到,股权融资的需求变多,这因为越来越多项目往应用方面走,就会与现实打交道。

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