【每日投研焦点】变盘在即!BTC投资者杠杆率飙升

火必研究院Published on 2022-03-14Last updated on 2022-03-14

Abstract

BTC和ETH等主流币近期多少弱势整理,筑底过程中,价格逐步靠近短线低位。

BTC和ETH等多数主流币弱势整理,筑底过程中,价格逐步靠近短线低位。而杠杆率在短线开始回升,意味着临近变盘点位的情况下,投资者正在快速增加持币数量,提升押注资金。意味着一旦变盘成功,BTC波动空间将迅速提升。

1、BTC价格:缩量整理,反弹机会渺茫

虽然BTC价格已经第五个交易日低于布林线中轨,但是价格表现并不强势。近期波动率也不断下降,3月12日的振幅只有2.08%。同时,火币交易所显示的交易量数据下跌到等量线以下,预期下跌可能性在不断提升。支撑方面,斐波那契50%对应的36077美元是有效支撑价位,BTC目前尚未跌破该点位,但是低吸买入的短期获利机会较低。这表明,BTC目前依然处在缩量调整阶段,底部确认需要更多时间才能得到验证。

BTC日线调整到支撑位

2、BTC杠杆率:投资者短线加仓,变盘机会增加

杠杆率高企,对BTC价格企稳帮助不大。目前3月12杠杆率已经上升至0.216附近,不仅为3个月内高位,同时也是3年内的峰值位置。也就是说,在BTC回调至低点的情况下,更多投资者在提升交易杠杆,这显然会增加BTC潜在的波动空间。特别是在变盘信号将出现的情况下,真实趋势出现前,短线假突破的情况也可能干扰投资者对趋势的判断。压力位方面,关注4万美元的变盘机会。

BTC杠杆率提升

3、ETH价格:触及支撑位,临近变盘

ETH波动空间下降的同时,典型的变盘信号即将持续在斐波那契50%对应的2474美元。RSI运行空间收窄,指标数值仅有45,意味着看跌信号依然存在。目前ETH缩量回撤,虽然抛压降低,买盘能力同样不足。本次ETH所在2500美元附近更可能持续技术性反弹,而下降趋势改变的可能性不大。

ETH缩量盘整

4、热门板块和币种:HECO生态、LUNA生态等表现较好,LUNA和RUNE短线上涨

随着BTC和ETH等主流币回撤到短线低位,反弹机会小幅增多,板块方面涨跌互相。HECO生态、IoTeX生态、LUNA生态表现较好,代表币种MDX和LUNA反弹空间增加。

消息面方面,俄乌局势出现缓和迹象,俄乌第四轮谈判将在3月14日举行。3月13日,乌克兰方面声称双方已接近就签署相关协议达成妥协。

金融市场方面,美股短线震荡,道琼斯小型期货指数盘中涨幅达1%。美元指数高位震荡,表明避险情绪并未完全消退。而受局势影响较大的路透CRB商品指数从高位回撤,意味着风险资产走势正在趋于稳定。BTC走势跟随美股震荡的可能性较大,关注BTC筑底表现。

RUNE带量反弹

Related Reads

a16z on Hiring: How to Choose Between Crypto-Native and Traditional Talent?

Hiring in Crypto: Balancing Crypto-Native and Traditional Talent As the crypto industry grows, founders face the dilemma of whether to prioritize hiring professionals with blockchain experience or those with traditional tech backgrounds who can learn. The key is recognizing that crypto companies are still tech companies at their core and should apply proven hiring best practices. Crypto-native talent offers immediate productivity and is essential for roles involving high-stakes, specialized work like smart contract development, where errors can be catastrophic. However, traditional professionals from large-scale software companies bring valuable experience in scaling products, operational flexibility, and expertise in areas like fintech, UX, and security, which are crucial as crypto products target mainstream adoption. Recruiting requires tailored approaches. Some candidates may be hesitant due to crypto's volatility or complexity, while others are excited by its innovative potential. Assess candidates' motivations, curiosity, and alignment with the company's vision early. Emphasize the opportunity to shape technology's future and address financial incentives, such as token-based compensation, which can offer liquidity compared to traditional equity. Onboarding is critical. Identify knowledge gaps during hiring and design education programs, mentorship, knowledge-sharing sessions, and resources like blogs or courses to accelerate learning. Pairing new hires with experienced crypto professionals helps bridge gaps and fosters collaboration. Ultimately, successful teams blend both crypto-native and traditional talent, leveraging their strengths to drive innovation and growth.

marsbit3h ago

a16z on Hiring: How to Choose Between Crypto-Native and Traditional Talent?

marsbit3h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片