【每日投研焦点】BTC跌破高杠杆交易区,反弹压力较大

火必研究院Published on 2022-03-07Last updated on 2022-03-09

Abstract

随着BTC价格再次见顶重要的斐波那契38.2%对应压力位,弱势横盘整理依然是当前行情的常态。

随着BTC价格再次见顶重要的斐波那契38.2%对应压力位,弱势横盘整理依然是当前行情的常态。特别是俄乌局势面临较大不确定性的时候,BTC联动股市回调的可能性较大。目前离开,BTC更多表现为风险资产属性。

1、BTC价格:缩量破位布林线中轨,底部确认中

BTC价格反弹到斐波那契38.2%对应的43847美元以后回落,这已经是近1个月内价格3次遇阻压力位。成交量表现相对低迷的情况下,价格轻松跌破布林线中轨,显示出较强的调整预期。结合BTC交易热度不高的现状,价格在近期大幅走强的可能性不高。近期可以按照区间波动判断BTC价格走向,短线关注斐波那契50%对应的支撑价位36077美元。

BTC日K线

2、资金成本:杠杆率回落,套牢抛压增加

随着BTC短期内出现了持续回撤,价格轻松跌破了高杠杆交易的价格区间。回顾3月初的BTC杠杆率表现,3月1日到3月4日的杠杆率大于1,资金成本为短线高位。BTC价格短线回撤以后,杠杆率由正转负数。跌破短线高杠杆区域以后,套牢盘的解套压力较大,使得BTC破位风险提升。

BTC资金成本

3、投资者持币结构:中短期持币者显著压缩,主力持币稳定

从UXTO代表的投资者的投资者的持币区间来看,目前持币时间较短的投资者数量在不断下降,而长期持币者不仅数量稳定,而且维持占比回升趋势。目前看,持币数量较大的是时间在12个月到18个月的投资者,这部分投资者数量最多,也是多空双方争夺的焦点。接下来,BTC的调整依然会延续,直到持币在12个月到18个月投资者数量减少,使得抛压较低到历史低点为止。

BTC的UTXO持币比例

4、全球市场:俄乌局势继续发酵,全球市场强震不停

俄乌局势延续的同时,也出现了一些缓和迹象。比如,乌方代表团确认将于7日举行第三轮俄乌谈判。俄罗斯方面,俄武装力量将宣布从当地时间7日上午起进入“静默状态”。同时,在乌克兰基辅、马里乌波尔、哈尔科夫和苏梅等地开启人道主义通道。

金融市场方面,亚洲市场方面,日经225指数和上证指数分别下跌可达2.94%和2.17%,小型道琼斯指数期货低开回落盘中最大跌幅1.42%。股市调整延续的同时,大宗商品继续飙涨,纽约原油期货最高触及130.5美元。接下来BTC价格走向依然可能联动股市回撤,并且短线调整步伐或将出现加快迹象。

道琼斯指数分时图

5、热门板块和币种:隐私币、博彩概念跌幅居前,WAVES强势横盘

受整体市场调整影响,多数板块持续下跌,稳定币板块调整较小,而隐私币、博彩概念币等跌幅较大。与俄乌局势相关的WAVES短线横盘整理,24小时的短线反弹空间达2.2%。同时,随着调整的进行,WAVES的交易量持续的萎缩迹象,行情发展更多会受到整体市场走向影响,使得关注短线低吸机会。

WAVES日K线图

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