大摩研报解读：黄金提前触及 4450 美元目标价，央行购金提供底部支撑

marsbitPublished on 2026-08-21Last updated on 2026-08-21

Abstract

黄金已触及摩根士丹利第四季度目标价4450美元/盎司。7-8月，因美联储加息概率下降，黄金ETF转为净流入。中国、波兰等国央行持续购金，提供底部支撑。摩根士丹利预计金价2027年可能突破5000美元。 近期金价走势与实际利率框架脱钩，开始为收益率上行背后的财政担忧定价。未来主导因素中，美联储政策路径仍影响ETF资金流向，而央行购金、期货空头头寸处于低位及财政担忧等结构性因素正构成新的支撑。 通往5000美元的路径已打开，但短期波动仍是常态。美国通胀数据可能引发对加息路径的重新定价，导致金价回调。当前黄金ETF流入是对加息概率下降的反应，持续性有待观察。基准判断是，在美联储按兵不动、央行购金持续及财政担忧深化的叠加作用下，金价中枢将上移。

撰文:Rita

黄金已触及摩根士丹利第四季度目标价4450美元/盎司,比预期更快。

8月20日,大摩发布大宗商品快评。7月至8月,美联储加息概率下降带动黄金ETF净流入70吨,逆转了5月至6月93吨的净流出。

央行同样在行动。中国央行年内购金60吨,为2023年以来最高;波兰增持82吨,总持仓达632吨,正接近700吨的目标。

大摩预计金价2027年可突破5000美元/盎司。上行路径存在波动风险。

金价走势正在脱离实际利率框架

2月底至8月初,黄金与10年期实际利率保持稳定的负相关。8月初开始,金价在长端利率持平时继续上行。类似脱钩在2025年下半年和2026年初曾出现过。

当时美联储降息压低短端利率,政府债务上升、货币贬值担忧和通胀预期共同支撑了长端利率,收益率曲线陡峭化,金价同步走强。这一次,长端利率上升更多受油价和科技债发行推动,但市场对政府债务的关注同样在回升。

大摩判断,金价正在为收益率上行背后的财政担忧定价,而非收益率本身。

美联储路径仍是主导,结构性因素正成为新支撑

美联储政策路径主导ETF资金流向。即将公布的美国通胀数据和美联储官员沟通信号,将决定加息预期走向。大摩美国经济学家预计美联储2026年全年按兵不动,利率侧的压力有限。

黄金的驱动因素正在变化。除实际利率框架外,三个结构性因素构成新支撑:央行购金持续,2026年上半年全球央行净买入345吨,与大摩全年700吨预测一致;COMEX(纽约商品交易所)黄金期货空头头寸降至2020年4月以来最低,短期空头回补空间收窄,但空头力量已被充分消化;收益率曲线陡峭化背后的财政担忧,正在成为金价的隐形催化剂。

5000美元路径已打开,短期波动是常态

美国通胀数据是短期波动的主要来源。若通胀超预期,市场可能重新定价美联储加息路径,触发金价回调。COMEX空头头寸处于历史低位,意味着短期空头回补驱动的快速上涨空间有限。黄金ETF流入更多是对加息概率下降的反应,而非对降息的预期。这与降息周期的典型模式不同,流入的持续性存在不确定性。

大摩的基准判断:美联储按兵不动、央行购金持续、财政担忧定价深化,三者叠加将推动金价中枢上移。短期波动不会改变这一方向。

免责声明

本文系潮向研究对第三方券商研究报告(摩根士丹利,2026年8月20日)的整理与解读,结合公开市场信息的整理。文中引述的评级、目标价、盈利预测及相关判断,均为该券商分析师的观点,仅代表其所属机构立场,不代表潮向研究的观点,也不构成任何投资建议。

市场有风险,决策需独立。本文不应作为买卖任何证券的依据。

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Related Questions

Q摩根士丹利对金价设定的第四季度目标价是多少？为何说提前触及？

A摩根士丹利设定的第四季度目标价是4450美元/盎司。文章指出，黄金价格在报告发布前已经达到了这一水平，速度快于该机构的预期，因此称为“提前触及”。

Q根据大摩的报告，近期推动黄金ETF资金流向变化的主要因素是什么？

A根据报告，推动近期黄金ETF资金流向变化的主要因素是市场对美联储加息概率的预期变化。7月至8月，因加息概率下降，黄金ETF转为净流入70吨，逆转了5月至6月的净流出态势。

Q文章中提到，金价正在脱离实际利率框架。当前金价上行为何种因素定价？

A文章指出，当前金价的上行并非由实际利率本身驱动，而是在为长端收益率上行背后的财政担忧定价。具体来说，是对政府债务上升、货币贬值担忧和通胀预期等因素的担忧在支撑金价。

Q大摩报告认为，除了实际利率，目前对黄金构成新支撑的三个结构性因素是什么？

A摩根士丹利报告提出的三个结构性新支撑因素是：1. 全球央行持续购金（如2026年上半年净买入345吨）；2. COMEX黄金期货空头头寸已降至历史低位，空头力量被消化；3. 收益率曲线陡峭化背后反映的财政担忧，成为金价的隐形催化剂。

Q大摩对于金价的中长期展望（2027年）是什么？短期面临的主要波动风险是什么？

A摩根士丹利预计，金价在2027年可能突破5000美元/盎司。短期面临的主要波动风险来自美国通胀数据，如果通胀超预期，可能引发市场对美联储加息路径的重新定价，从而触发金价回调。同时，黄金ETF流入的持续性也存在不确定性。

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