Dự đoán thời kỳ tăng trưởng tiềm ẩn của thị trường, Polymarket chuẩn bị chiêu bài để đuổi kịp Kalshi

Odaily星球日报Published on 2026-08-12Last updated on 2026-08-12

Abstract

Sau World Cup, nhiều sự kiện thể thao lớn khác cũng đang trong thời gian nghỉ, khiến nhiệt độ giao dịch trên Polymarket giảm xuống. Để chuẩn bị cho các giải đấu thể thao sắp tới và cuộc bầu cử giữa kỳ Mỹ vào tháng 11, nền tảng này đã thực hiện một loạt điều chỉnh về nhân sự quản lý, chiến lược thị trường và quảng bá. Polymarket đang tập trung mạnh mẽ cho việc tái gia nhập thị trường Mỹ. Từ việc mua lại sàn giao dịch có giấy phép CFTC (QCEX) vào năm 2025 để vận hành dưới tên Polymarket US, đến việc mở rộng kênh truy cập cho người dùng iOS và gần đây là phiên bản web. Những nỗ lực này đã thu được kết quả rõ rệt: khối lượng giao dịch của Polymarket US đã tăng từ 17,69 tỷ USD (tháng 5) lên khoảng 50 tỷ USD (tháng 7), thu hẹp khoảng cách với khối lượng giao dịch của Polymarket International từ 25% lên 62%. Về nhân sự, Polymarket đã bổ nhiệm Travis VanderZanden, nhà sáng lập Bird và cựu lãnh đạo Uber/Lyft, làm Giám đốc Tăng trưởng để phụ trách hệ thống tiếp thị. Anh sẽ phải giải quyết những tranh cãi quảng cáo trước đây liên quan đến nội dung giao dịch mô phỏng khiến người xem hiểu nhầm. Nền tảng này cũng tuyển dụng thêm nhiều lãnh đạo từ Robinhood, Coinbase, Nasdaq và FBI cho các vị trí tuân thủ, giám sát và quản lý rủi ro. Mục tiêu chính của Polymarket là đuổi kịp đối thủ Kalshi, công ty dẫn đầu thị trường dự đoán hợp pháp tại Mỹ với khối lượng giao dịch tháng 7 khoảng 377 tỷ USD, gấp nhiều lần so với tổng cộng hai nền tảng của Polymarket. Sự kiện thể thao mùa thu và bầu cử gi...

Bản gốc | Odaily Planet Daily(@OdailyChina)

Tác giả | Asher(@Asher_ 0210)

Sau World Cup, hầu hết các sự kiện thể thao nổi bật khác gần đây cũng đang trong thời gian nghỉ, nhiệt độ giao dịch trên Polymarket đã giảm xuống. Nền tảng đã thực hiện một loạt điều chỉnh tập trung gần đây về ban lãnh đạo, định hướng thị trường và chiến lược quảng bá, nhằm chuẩn bị trước cho các sự kiện thể thao nóng sắp tới và cuộc bầu cử giữa kỳ Mỹ vào tháng 11.

Về nhân sự, Travis VanderZanden, nhà sáng lập công ty xe tay ga điện chia sẻ Bird, cựu lãnh đạo Uber và Lyft, đã gia nhập Polymarket, đảm nhận vị trí Giám đốc Tăng trưởng (CGO) và phụ trách hệ thống marketing của công ty. Đồng thời, Polymarket cũng mời nhiều lãnh đạo cấp cao từ Robinhood, Coinbase, Nasdaq và FBI, bao phủ các vị trí như tuân thủ, quản lý, điều tra và quản lý rủi ro.

Ngoài ra, Polymarket tiếp tục nỗ lực để trở lại thị trường Mỹ, một loạt sự kiện thể thao và chính trị sắp tới cũng có khả năng thúc đẩy hơn nữa nhiệt độ giao dịch của hoạt động kinh doanh tại Mỹ.

Trở lại Mỹ một năm, Polymarket US bước vào giai đoạn tăng trưởng

Từ việc mua lại sàn giao dịch có giấy phép đến ra mắt phiên bản web, Polymarket US tăng tốc triển khai

Năm 2022, Polymarket đã đạt được thỏa thuận với CFTC do không đăng ký hoạt động kinh doanh phái sinh và rút khỏi thị trường Mỹ.

Cho đến tháng 7 năm 2025, Polymarket mua lại sàn giao dịch và tổ chức thanh toán phái sinh được CFTC cấp phép QCEX với giá 112 triệu USD, mở đường cho việc trở lại Mỹ. Sau đó, QCX LLC hoạt động dưới tên Polymarket US, và vào tháng 11 cùng năm, đã nhận được lệnh chỉ định sửa đổi từ CFTC, tiếp tục hoàn thiện nền tảng để tiến hành giao dịch được quản lý tại Mỹ.

Tháng 12 cùng năm, Polymarket US bắt đầu mở cửa cho người dùng trong danh sách chờ; tháng 5 năm nay, Polymarket US chính thức mở cửa hoàn toàn cho người dùng iOS tại Mỹ. Đến hôm qua, thành viên cộng đồng phản hồi rằng Polymarket US đã ra mắt phiên bản web, các kênh mở cho người dùng Mỹ vẫn đang tiếp tục mở rộng.

Khối lượng giao dịch Polymarket US tiếp tục tăng, đang dần tiếp cận Polymarket International

Tháng 5 năm nay, cùng với việc lối vào cho người dùng Mỹ dần mở cửa, khối lượng giao dịch của Polymarket US bắt đầu tăng lên rõ rệt.

Theo dữ liệu Dune, tháng 5, khối lượng giao dịch của Polymarket US là 1.769 tỷ USD, trong khi khối lượng giao dịch của Polymarket International cùng kỳ là 7.077 tỷ USD, khối lượng giao dịch US bằng khoảng 25% International. Đến tháng 6, khối lượng giao dịch Polymarket US tăng nhanh lên 4.041 tỷ USD, tăng hơn gấp đôi so với tháng 5, trong khi khối lượng giao dịch của International cùng kỳ là 10.773 tỷ USD, tỷ lệ giữa hai bên tăng lên khoảng 38%.

Tháng 7, khoảng cách này tiếp tục thu hẹp. Khối lượng giao dịch hàng tháng của Polymarket US đạt khoảng 5 tỷ USD, tiếp tục lập mức cao mới, trong khi khối lượng giao dịch của International tháng 7 chỉ là 8.044 tỷ USD, khối lượng giao dịch US tương đương 62% International, trong khi hai tháng trước tỷ lệ này chỉ là 25%.

Lối vào người dùng đang tăng, quy mô giao dịch cũng liên tục tăng, sắp tới Polymarket không chỉ cần thu hút thêm người dùng Mỹ mà còn phải đối mặt với hàng loạt vấn đề cụ thể hơn như marketing, tuân thủ, quản lý rủi ro. Do đó, tăng trưởng, marketing, tuân thủ và quản lý rủi ro cũng trở thành những hướng điều chỉnh tập trung nhất trong đợt điều chỉnh nhóm này.

Vừa bổ sung nhân sự tăng trưởng vừa tuân thủ, nhưng trước tiên phải xử lý vấn đề marketing trước đó

Sau khi Travis VanderZanden, nhà sáng lập Bird, cựu lãnh đạo Uber và Lyft, tiếp quản hoạt động marketing, việc đầu tiên cần xử lý là những tranh cãi quảng bá còn sót lại trước đó.

Trước đây, điều tra của Wall Street Journal phát hiện, Polymarket từng thông qua đối tác quảng bá để các nhà sáng tạo nội dung trình diễn giao dịch mô phỏng. Một số video sử dụng giao diện website có độ tương đồng cao với Polymarket thật, khiến người xem lầm tưởng nhà sáng tạo đang thực hiện giao dịch thật và thu được lợi nhuận. Điều tra liên quan cho biết, trong hơn 1100 video liên quan được trình chiếu, khoảng 1.9 triệu USD đặt cược đều là giao dịch mô phỏng. Sau đó, CFTC lại mở cuộc điều tra về hành vi marketing liên quan của Polymarket.

Polymarket sau đó bắt đầu cải tổ hệ thống marketing, bao gồm tổ chức lại bộ phận marketing, cập nhật quy tắc đối tác quảng bá và đào tạo nhân viên liên quan. Công ty còn thuê tổ chức tư vấn AlixPartners để xem xét nội dung do đối tác phát hành, kiểm tra xem có phù hợp với quy định quảng bá mới hay không.

Do đó, việc VanderZanden tham gia Polymarket lần này, nhiệm vụ không chỉ là tiếp tục mở rộng quy mô người dùng. Ông tiếp quản một hệ thống marketing vẫn đang trong quá trình điều chỉnh. Polymarket US hiện vẫn tiếp tục mở rộng lối vào người dùng, khối lượng giao dịch cũng đang trong giai đoạn tăng trưởng. Sắp tới, các sự kiện thể thao và chính trị tăng lên, nền tảng hy vọng thu hút thêm người dùng Mỹ, nâng cao mức độ hoạt động giao dịch, nhưng cuộc điều tra quản lý trước đó cũng có nghĩa là một số cách quảng bá quá mạnh mẽ trước đây khó có thể tiếp tục áp dụng.

Mùa thu mới là kỳ thi thực sự lớn, Polymarket còn phải đuổi kịp Kalshi

Trong thị trường dự đoán Mỹ, Kalshi vẫn dẫn đầu đáng kể so với Polymarket US. Tháng 7, khối lượng giao dịch hàng tháng của Kalshi khoảng 37.7 tỷ USD, Polymarket US khoảng 5 tỷ USD, Polymarket International cùng kỳ khoảng 8 tỷ USD – tổng cộng hai nền tảng khoảng 13 tỷ USD, chưa bằng một phần ba Kalshi. Hơn nữa, hoạt động kinh doanh của Kalshi hầu như tập trung toàn bộ tại thị trường Mỹ.

Sự chênh lệch này cũng thể hiện qua định giá trên thị trường vốn. Cuối tháng 6, Kalshi đang đàm phán vòng gọi vốn mới, mục tiêu định giá khoảng 400 tỷ USD; chỉ một tháng trước đó, công ty vừa hoàn thành vòng gọi vốn 10 tỷ USD, khi đó định giá là 220 tỷ USD. Trong khi đó, định giá của Polymarket vào tháng 10 năm 2025 là khoảng 9 tỷ USD, sau khi hoàn thành vòng gọi vốn khoảng 1 tỷ USD vào tháng 4 năm nay, định giá tăng lên 15 tỷ USD, bước vào tháng 8 lại bắt đầu tìm kiếm vòng gọi vốn mới khoảng 1 tỷ USD, mục tiêu định giá vượt quá 20 tỷ USD.

Sau tháng 9, một loạt sự kiện thể thao nổi bật và cuộc bầu cử giữa kỳ Mỹ vào tháng 11 sẽ lần lượt diễn ra. Thị trường dự đoán tuân thủ tại Mỹ là nền tảng tồn tại của Kalshi, và cũng đang trở thành động lực tăng trưởng quan trọng nhất của Polymarket. Đối với Polymarket, vài tháng tới sẽ là cửa sổ then chốt để US tiếp tục mở rộng quy mô giao dịch, hiệu quả thực sự của đợt điều chỉnh nhóm này cũng sẽ sớm được kiểm chứng.

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Understanding SPERO: A Comprehensive Overview Introduction to SPERO As the landscape of innovation continues to evolve, the emergence of web3 technologies and cryptocurrency projects plays a pivotal role in shaping the digital future. One project that has garnered attention in this dynamic field is SPERO, denoted as SPERO,$$s$. This article aims to gather and present detailed information about SPERO, to help enthusiasts and investors understand its foundations, objectives, and innovations within the web3 and crypto domains. What is SPERO,$$s$? SPERO,$$s$ is a unique project within the crypto space that seeks to leverage the principles of decentralisation and blockchain technology to create an ecosystem that promotes engagement, utility, and financial inclusion. The project is tailored to facilitate peer-to-peer interactions in new ways, providing users with innovative financial solutions and services. At its core, SPERO,$$s$ aims to empower individuals by providing tools and platforms that enhance user experience in the cryptocurrency space. This includes enabling more flexible transaction methods, fostering community-driven initiatives, and creating pathways for financial opportunities through decentralised applications (dApps). The underlying vision of SPERO,$$s$ revolves around inclusiveness, aiming to bridge gaps within traditional finance while harnessing the benefits of blockchain technology. Who is the Creator of SPERO,$$s$? The identity of the creator of SPERO,$$s$ remains somewhat obscure, as there are limited publicly available resources providing detailed background information on its founder(s). This lack of transparency can stem from the project's commitment to decentralisation—an ethos that many web3 projects share, prioritising collective contributions over individual recognition. By centring discussions around the community and its collective goals, SPERO,$$s$ embodies the essence of empowerment without singling out specific individuals. As such, understanding the ethos and mission of SPERO remains more important than identifying a singular creator. Who are the Investors of SPERO,$$s$? SPERO,$$s$ is supported by a diverse array of investors ranging from venture capitalists to angel investors dedicated to fostering innovation in the crypto sector. The focus of these investors generally aligns with SPERO's mission—prioritising projects that promise societal technological advancement, financial inclusivity, and decentralised governance. These investor foundations are typically interested in projects that not only offer innovative products but also contribute positively to the blockchain community and its ecosystems. The backing from these investors reinforces SPERO,$$s$ as a noteworthy contender in the rapidly evolving domain of crypto projects. How Does SPERO,$$s$ Work? SPERO,$$s$ employs a multi-faceted framework that distinguishes it from conventional cryptocurrency projects. Here are some of the key features that underline its uniqueness and innovation: Decentralised Governance: SPERO,$$s$ integrates decentralised governance models, empowering users to participate actively in decision-making processes regarding the project’s future. This approach fosters a sense of ownership and accountability among community members. Token Utility: SPERO,$$s$ utilises its own cryptocurrency token, designed to serve various functions within the ecosystem. These tokens enable transactions, rewards, and the facilitation of services offered on the platform, enhancing overall engagement and utility. Layered Architecture: The technical architecture of SPERO,$$s$ supports modularity and scalability, allowing for seamless integration of additional features and applications as the project evolves. This adaptability is paramount for sustaining relevance in the ever-changing crypto landscape. Community Engagement: The project emphasises community-driven initiatives, employing mechanisms that incentivise collaboration and feedback. By nurturing a strong community, SPERO,$$s$ can better address user needs and adapt to market trends. Focus on Inclusion: By offering low transaction fees and user-friendly interfaces, SPERO,$$s$ aims to attract a diverse user base, including individuals who may not previously have engaged in the crypto space. This commitment to inclusion aligns with its overarching mission of empowerment through accessibility. Timeline of SPERO,$$s$ Understanding a project's history provides crucial insights into its development trajectory and milestones. Below is a suggested timeline mapping significant events in the evolution of SPERO,$$s$: Conceptualisation and Ideation Phase: The initial ideas forming the basis of SPERO,$$s$ were conceived, aligning closely with the principles of decentralisation and community focus within the blockchain industry. Launch of Project Whitepaper: Following the conceptual phase, a comprehensive whitepaper detailing the vision, goals, and technological infrastructure of SPERO,$$s$ was released to garner community interest and feedback. Community Building and Early Engagements: Active outreach efforts were made to build a community of early adopters and potential investors, facilitating discussions around the project’s goals and garnering support. Token Generation Event: SPERO,$$s$ conducted a token generation event (TGE) to distribute its native tokens to early supporters and establish initial liquidity within the ecosystem. Launch of Initial dApp: The first decentralised application (dApp) associated with SPERO,$$s$ went live, allowing users to engage with the platform's core functionalities. Ongoing Development and Partnerships: Continuous updates and enhancements to the project's offerings, including strategic partnerships with other players in the blockchain space, have shaped SPERO,$$s$ into a competitive and evolving player in the crypto market. Conclusion SPERO,$$s$ stands as a testament to the potential of web3 and cryptocurrency to revolutionise financial systems and empower individuals. With a commitment to decentralised governance, community engagement, and innovatively designed functionalities, it paves the way toward a more inclusive financial landscape. As with any investment in the rapidly evolving crypto space, potential investors and users are encouraged to research thoroughly and engage thoughtfully with the ongoing developments within SPERO,$$s$. The project showcases the innovative spirit of the crypto industry, inviting further exploration into its myriad possibilities. While the journey of SPERO,$$s$ is still unfolding, its foundational principles may indeed influence the future of how we interact with technology, finance, and each other in interconnected digital ecosystems.

429 Total ViewsPublished 2024.12.17Updated 2024.12.17

What is AGENT S

Agent S: The Future of Autonomous Interaction in Web3 Introduction In the ever-evolving landscape of Web3 and cryptocurrency, innovations are constantly redefining how individuals interact with digital platforms. One such pioneering project, Agent S, promises to revolutionise human-computer interaction through its open agentic framework. By paving the way for autonomous interactions, Agent S aims to simplify complex tasks, offering transformative applications in artificial intelligence (AI). This detailed exploration will delve into the project's intricacies, its unique features, and the implications for the cryptocurrency domain. What is Agent S? Agent S stands as a groundbreaking open agentic framework, specifically designed to tackle three fundamental challenges in the automation of computer tasks: Acquiring Domain-Specific Knowledge: The framework intelligently learns from various external knowledge sources and internal experiences. This dual approach empowers it to build a rich repository of domain-specific knowledge, enhancing its performance in task execution. Planning Over Long Task Horizons: Agent S employs experience-augmented hierarchical planning, a strategic approach that facilitates efficient breakdown and execution of intricate tasks. This feature significantly enhances its ability to manage multiple subtasks efficiently and effectively. Handling Dynamic, Non-Uniform Interfaces: The project introduces the Agent-Computer Interface (ACI), an innovative solution that enhances the interaction between agents and users. Utilizing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), Agent S can navigate and manipulate diverse graphical user interfaces seamlessly. Through these pioneering features, Agent S provides a robust framework that addresses the complexities involved in automating human interaction with machines, setting the stage for myriad applications in AI and beyond. Who is the Creator of Agent S? While the concept of Agent S is fundamentally innovative, specific information about its creator remains elusive. The creator is currently unknown, which highlights either the nascent stage of the project or the strategic choice to keep founding members under wraps. Regardless of anonymity, the focus remains on the framework's capabilities and potential. Who are the Investors of Agent S? As Agent S is relatively new in the cryptographic ecosystem, detailed information regarding its investors and financial backers is not explicitly documented. The lack of publicly available insights into the investment foundations or organisations supporting the project raises questions about its funding structure and development roadmap. Understanding the backing is crucial for gauging the project's sustainability and potential market impact. How Does Agent S Work? At the core of Agent S lies cutting-edge technology that enables it to function effectively in diverse settings. Its operational model is built around several key features: Human-like Computer Interaction: The framework offers advanced AI planning, striving to make interactions with computers more intuitive. By mimicking human behaviour in tasks execution, it promises to elevate user experiences. Narrative Memory: Employed to leverage high-level experiences, Agent S utilises narrative memory to keep track of task histories, thereby enhancing its decision-making processes. Episodic Memory: This feature provides users with step-by-step guidance, allowing the framework to offer contextual support as tasks unfold. Support for OpenACI: With the ability to run locally, Agent S allows users to maintain control over their interactions and workflows, aligning with the decentralised ethos of Web3. Easy Integration with External APIs: Its versatility and compatibility with various AI platforms ensure that Agent S can fit seamlessly into existing technological ecosystems, making it an appealing choice for developers and organisations. These functionalities collectively contribute to Agent S's unique position within the crypto space, as it automates complex, multi-step tasks with minimal human intervention. As the project evolves, its potential applications in Web3 could redefine how digital interactions unfold. Timeline of Agent S The development and milestones of Agent S can be encapsulated in a timeline that highlights its significant events: September 27, 2024: The concept of Agent S was launched in a comprehensive research paper titled “An Open Agentic Framework that Uses Computers Like a Human,” showcasing the groundwork for the project. October 10, 2024: The research paper was made publicly available on arXiv, offering an in-depth exploration of the framework and its performance evaluation based on the OSWorld benchmark. October 12, 2024: A video presentation was released, providing a visual insight into the capabilities and features of Agent S, further engaging potential users and investors. These markers in the timeline not only illustrate the progress of Agent S but also indicate its commitment to transparency and community engagement. Key Points About Agent S As the Agent S framework continues to evolve, several key attributes stand out, underscoring its innovative nature and potential: Innovative Framework: Designed to provide an intuitive use of computers akin to human interaction, Agent S brings a novel approach to task automation. Autonomous Interaction: The ability to interact autonomously with computers through GUI signifies a leap towards more intelligent and efficient computing solutions. Complex Task Automation: With its robust methodology, it can automate complex, multi-step tasks, making processes faster and less error-prone. Continuous Improvement: The learning mechanisms enable Agent S to improve from past experiences, continually enhancing its performance and efficacy. Versatility: Its adaptability across different operating environments like OSWorld and WindowsAgentArena ensures that it can serve a broad range of applications. As Agent S positions itself in the Web3 and crypto landscape, its potential to enhance interaction capabilities and automate processes signifies a significant advancement in AI technologies. Through its innovative framework, Agent S exemplifies the future of digital interactions, promising a more seamless and efficient experience for users across various industries. Conclusion Agent S represents a bold leap forward in the marriage of AI and Web3, with the capacity to redefine how we interact with technology. While still in its early stages, the possibilities for its application are vast and compelling. Through its comprehensive framework addressing critical challenges, Agent S aims to bring autonomous interactions to the forefront of the digital experience. As we move deeper into the realms of cryptocurrency and decentralisation, projects like Agent S will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping the future of technology and human-computer collaboration.

1.1k Total ViewsPublished 2025.01.14Updated 2025.01.14

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