比特币的年度信号：“暴风雨前的宁静…”

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2026-08-03Last updated on 2026-08-03

Abstract

加密货币分析师卢克·马丁指出，比特币在过去30天的波动率已低于科技公司股票，这是一个罕见的市场信号。马丁表示，比特币的实际波动率低于追踪纳斯达克100指数的QQQ基金，这种现象每年仅出现一至两次。在其它资产波动剧烈时，比特币却异常平静。历史数据显示，该信号出现后的7天内，比特币平均上涨20.58%；30天后平均收益达141.81%，且过往12次信号后价格全部上涨。长期数据显示，信号后60天平均收益为359.72%，胜率91.67%；90天后全部11次事件均上涨，平均收益635.94%；180天后全部10次事件为正收益，平均涨幅731.96%。马丁认为，类似低波动时期在历史上对比特币多头有利，并将当前状况描述为“暴风雨前的宁静”。但需注意，过往表现不保证未来价格走势，且高收益数据基于有限的历史观察。 *本文不构成投资建议。

加密货币分析师卢克·马丁指出，比特币在过去30天的波动率已低于科技公司股票，这表明市场出现了一个罕见信号。

马丁表示，比特币实际波动率降至追踪纳斯达克100指数的QQQ基金水平以下，是每年仅出现一到两次的现象。这位分析师指出，在其他资产表现出与加密货币市场同样剧烈波动的时候，比特币却保持着异常平静。

根据公布的历史数据，在该信号出现后的7天内，比特币平均上涨了20.58%。信号发出后30天的平均回报率为141.81%，这表明在所考察的12个案例中，比特币价格均出现上涨。

通过分析更长时间段的数据，60天的平均回报率为359.72%，交易成功率为91.67%。在收到信号后的90天内，所有11个被考察的事件都显示了上涨，平均回报率为635.94%。在180天内，所有10个事件都带来了正回报，平均回报率为731.96%。

马丁认为，过去的类似时期对比特币多头有利，他将目前的低波动率描述为“暴风雨前的宁静”。

然而，需谨记过去的表现并不能保证未来的价格变化，且高回报率是基于有限的历史观察数据得出的。

*本文不构成投资建议。

end-content

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