How Will the Fed's Decision Affect Bitcoin? What is the Probability of Its Rise? Answers from Two Analyst Experts!

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2026-07-29Last updated on 2026-07-29

Abstract

The impact of the upcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Bitcoin may be more limited than in past cycles, according to analysts. While markets anticipate rates will remain unchanged, there is a 31.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike. K33 Research notes Bitcoin is trading sideways with near multi-year low volatility, while the Nasdaq shows strong upward momentum. This has caused the correlation between Bitcoin and the tech-heavy index to drop to its lowest levels in years, suggesting their price movements are diverging. Consequently, K33's Vetle Lunde states the Fed's decision may be less decisive for Bitcoin's price than historically, as low volatility and decoupling from Nasdaq trends could dampen its reaction. Similarly, analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicts Bitcoin's recent recovery will continue post-FOMC meeting, arguing the market has already priced in excessive fear and Bitcoin's resilience supports a continued rally.

Today, all attention in the Bitcoin and altcoin market is focused on the critical Federal Reserve meeting. Although the main scenario expected by the market is for interest rates to remain unchanged, a rate hike is not completely off the table. According to CME FedWatchTool, the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in July is estimated at 31.5%.

Although expectations remain mixed, leading cryptocurrency analytics firm K33 Research suggested that the impact of the upcoming Fed interest rate decision on Bitcoin could be less significant and more limited compared to previous cycles.

Fed's Decision May Have a Limited Impact on Bitcoin!

K33 Research Head of Research Vetle Lunde stated in a report that Nasdaq entered July with strong upward momentum and significant positioning, while Bitcoin continued to trade sideways with volatility near multi-year lows.

According to Lunde, this situation has caused the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq to approach its lowest levels in recent years, suggesting that the price movements of these two assets may increasingly diverge.

Therefore, Lunde stated that this Fed decision may not be as decisive for the price of $BTC as in the past. According to Lunde, Bitcoin's low volatility and sideways movement (leading to a dampened response to macroeconomic events), along with the divergence in price behavior from the Nasdaq index, could limit the impact of Fed decisions on $BTC and the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin's Rally May Continue Even After the FOMC Meeting!

Apart from K33 Research, another analyst believes the Fed's decision will have a limited impact on $BTC. Popular analyst Michael van de Poppe predicts that the rise in $BTC will continue even after the FOMC meeting.

Van de Poppe asserts that Bitcoin has shown a confident recovery and is likely to continue its upward move after the FOMC meeting. He added that the market has already priced in excessive fear ahead of the FOMC meeting, and Bitcoin's strong resilience supports the view that the rally will persist.

*This is not investment advice.

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Related Questions

QAccording to K33 Research, why might the upcoming Fed decision have a more limited impact on Bitcoin compared to past cycles?

AK33 Research suggests the limited impact is due to Bitcoin's low volatility and sideways trading (which reduces its reaction to macroeconomic events), as well as a divergence in price behavior with the Nasdaq, leading to their correlation reaching near multi-year lows.

QWhat is the market-implied probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in July, according to CME FedWatchTool data?

AAccording to CME FedWatchTool data, the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in July is 31.5%.

QWhich analyst predicted that Bitcoin's rally is likely to continue after the FOMC meeting, and what was their reasoning?

AAnalyst Michaël van de Poppe predicted the rally would continue. His reasoning is that Bitcoin has shown confident recovery, the market has already priced in excessive fear ahead of the FOMC meeting, and Bitcoin's strong resilience supports the view that the rally will persist.

QWhat current trading pattern of Bitcoin does Vetle Lunde from K33 Research highlight as a factor reducing its reaction to Fed decisions?

AVetle Lunde highlights that Bitcoin has been trading in a sideways range with volatility near multi-year lows, which reduces its reaction to macroeconomic events like Fed decisions.

QWhat key difference in market conditions does the article note between Nasdaq and Bitcoin entering July?

AThe article notes that Nasdaq entered July with a strong upward momentum and significant positions, while Bitcoin continued to trade in a sideways range.

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After the Fed's Interest Rate Decision and Comments from Kevin Walsh, Experts Gathered and Shared Their Latest Insights!

Following the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady, experts highlight a potential shift towards more independent policymaking within the FOMC, as three members dissented. Market strategists note the slight decline in bond yields and a weaker dollar post-announcement, but caution that a rate hike in September remains possible. Experts like Mark Hackett point to the three dissenting votes as a sign of growing committee independence. While markets initially rallied in relief, the final direction hinges on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's upcoming press conference. Analysts, including Audrey Childs-Freeman, interpret the dissent as the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance. They suggest the Fed will continue monitoring data, with a summer scenario of high bond yields supporting the dollar still in play. Chris Anstey emphasizes that markets will closely watch the 10-year Treasury yield during Warsh's conference. A continued rise could signal investor fears that the Fed is not acting aggressively enough on inflation, posing a challenge for the Chair. The long-term yield is also viewed as critical for mortgages and economic management. Diane Swonk of KPMG argues a September rate hike is likely, stating that an increase now would have been more appropriate given nearly five years of high inflation. She warns that prolonged high prices risk becoming embedded in the economic system. *This is not investment advice.

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1.1k Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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