ETH/BTC比率跌回2023年初水平，交易员争论以太坊价值

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-06-21Last updated on 2026-06-21

Abstract

ETH/BTC汇率已回落至2023年初水平，目前在0.027附近，远低于2021年接近0.088的峰值。分析师Woetoe指出，以太坊相对于比特币处于历史低位，这引发了市场辩论：这是否是一个反向投资的机会，还是意味着以太坊面临结构性衰退？ 与此同时，ETH/USDT的美元计价图表显示出回调风险。SwallowAcademy的分析认为，在强劲的周初开盘后，ETHUSDT正进入看跌修正阶段，价格结构已被破坏，可能下探至1723美元甚至更低。 当前局面呈现出一种有趣的风险组合：从相对价值看，ETH看似便宜，但技术图表却显示疲软和下行压力。对于以太坊多头而言，当务之急并非争论估值，而是需要重新夺回技术强势地位，并开始再次跑赢比特币。市场正在观察，这种廉价状态会持续多久，关键取决于其技术走势能否得到改善。

可信编辑内容，由领先的行业专家和经验丰富的编辑审核。广告披露

要点总结

  • Woetoe表示ETH/BTC比率已接近0.027，回到了2023年初的水平。
  • 该分析师将其与2021年接近0.088的峰值进行了对比。
  • 另一份ETHUSDT的TradingView分析显示，在强劲的周线开盘后，存在看跌回调风险。

以太坊相对于比特币的表现再次承压。Woetoe在6月20日的X帖子中表示，ETH/BTC比率为0.027，使其回到了2023年初的水平。该分析师将其与2021年约0.088的峰值进行了对比，并提出疑问：以太坊现在是逆向买入机会，还是正面临结构性下跌。

这个问题抓住了当前围绕以太坊的核心争论。对于相信以太坊最终将重夺领导地位的投资者来说，较低的ETH/BTC比率看起来颇具吸引力。但它也可能是一个警告，表明资金持续青睐比特币，而非更广泛的智能合约生态系统。

ETHUSDT图表显示回调风险

美元计价图表也没有提供简单的看涨答案。SwallowAcademy在6月20日发布的TradingView观点指出，ETHUSDT在强劲的周线开盘后正进入看跌修正。该分析师表示，最初的上涨异常激进，增加了进行更深回调以重新平衡走势的必要性。

该分析强调了市场结构已被破坏，价格在1,774美元高点下方回落。其提到的交易计划侧重于在价格重新测试1,723美元入场区域时卖出，1,660美元在该观点标题中被提及，作为修正框架的一部分。

蕴含真实风险的相对价值机会

这两方面因素共同创造了一个有趣但风险颇高的局面。ETH相对于比特币可能看起来处于历史低位，但ETHUSDT图表仍显示出修正压力。这意味着相对价值交易者可能看到了机会，而动量交易者则看到了疲软。

这种区别很重要。如果市场结构持续恶化，“便宜”可以一直便宜下去。对于以太坊多头来说，首要任务不是争论估值，而是重新获得技术上的强势，并开始再次跑赢BTC。

本报告基于Woetoe在X平台和SwallowAcademy在TradingView上的信息。

本文由新闻台撰写，Samuel Rae编辑。

bitcoinist的编辑流程专注于提供经过深入研究、准确且公正的内容。我们坚持严格的信息来源标准，每一页内容都由我们顶尖技术专家和经验丰富的编辑团队进行仔细审核。这一过程确保了我们内容对读者的完整性、相关性和价值。

Bitcoinist 编辑团队

关注

完整简介

相关文章

Kraken将Solana DEX交易直接集成到其主应用中

2小时前

以太坊空头保持控制，ETH在趋势线阻力位受阻

8小时前

XRP围绕谐波模式和关键支撑区形成反转形态

11小时前

Hyperliquid ETF声明引发关注，X平台HYPE叙事升温

12小时前

TradingView分析师警告：比特币必须守住6万美元，否则面临大幅下跌风险

14小时前

Venus Protocol在BNB链上整合代币化股票作为借贷抵押品

15小时前

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
aPrioriAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
mantra
MantraMANTRA
xvs
VenusXVS
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
velodrome
Velodrome FinanceVELODROME
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE

Related Questions

Q根据文章，当前的ETH/BTC比率是多少？与2021年峰值相比如何？

A根据分析师Woetoe的数据，当前的ETH/BTC比率是0.027，这个水平回到了2023年初的水平。而在2021年的峰值时期，该比率约为0.088，是目前比率的三倍多。

Q分析师Woetoe针对当前ETH/BTC比率提出了哪两个核心问题？

A分析师Woetoe提出的两个核心问题是：以太坊当前是“逆向押注”（即认为其被低估、未来会反弹）的机会，还是正在经历“结构性下跌”？这体现了市场对以太坊未来价值的分歧。

Q在ETH/USDT的美元图表分析中，分析师SwallowAcademy指出了什么风险？

A在ETH/USDT的美元图表分析中，分析师SwallowAcademy指出，在强劲的周开盘后，以太坊可能正在进入看跌修正阶段。他认为初期的上涨过于激进，需要进行更深度的回调来重新平衡走势，并强调了市场结构被破坏及价格跌破1,774美元高点后转弱的风险。

Q文章认为，对于以太坊的多头来说，当前的首要任务是什么？

A文章认为，对于以太坊的多头来说，当前的首要任务不是争论估值高低，而是需要“重新获得技术实力”，并开始“再次跑赢比特币”。这意味着以太坊需要先在价格走势和技术指标上展现出强势，才能吸引资金并证明其相对价值。

Q这篇文章主要引用了哪些来源的信息和分析？

A这篇文章主要引用了两个来源的信息和分析：一是分析师Woetoe在社交媒体平台X上发布的关于ETH/BTC比率的观点和图表；二是TradingView上分析师SwallowAcademy发布的关于ETH/USDT交易对的技术分析观点。文章结尾声明报告基于这两处的信息。

Related Reads

A Group of Suzhou Engineers Unexpectedly Attain Financial Freedom

In Suzhou, a group of engineers from Lianxun Instruments, a leader in optical communication testing equipment, have achieved remarkable wealth after the company's IPO. Listed just two months ago on the STAR Market, the company's stock price surged approximately 30 times, making it the only A-share stock priced above 2,000 yuan. This surge created substantial fortunes for nearly 100 technical employees who held a collective 15.91% stake through employee stock ownership platforms, valued at over 36 billion yuan at the current market cap. Among them, nearly 40 became billionaires, while even the smallest holdings exceeded 5 million yuan in value. Founded in 2017 by Hu Haiyang, Yang Jian, and Huang Jianjun, Lianxun Instruments was established to address China's reliance on foreign high-end testing instruments. The company grew rapidly with a strong focus on R&D, where technical staff make up nearly 80% of its workforce. Early implementation of employee stock plans helped retain this core talent. The company's explosive growth is fueled by booming AI computing demand, with clients including major global optical module leaders. Its revenue skyrocketed from 276 million yuan in 2023 to 1.194 billion yuan in 2025, turning a profit in 2024. The IPO has also generated massive returns for early investors, including Suzhou's state-owned capital, which saw a hundredfold return. This story reflects a broader trend in China's markets, where technology firms in AI, semiconductors, and optics are creating new wealth, rewarding engineers and technical teams who are now central to modern capital-driven success stories, marking a shift from previous eras dominated by internet and real estate tycoons.

marsbit5m ago

A Group of Suzhou Engineers Unexpectedly Attain Financial Freedom

marsbit5m ago

NVIDIA's Annual 'Most Dangerous' Paper: AI Self-Replicating Code, Unlimited Leveling and Evolution

NVIDIA's "Red Queen Gödel Machine" (RQGM) paper proposes a potentially groundbreaking AI self-evolution framework. It breaks from the long-stalled concept of the "Gödel Machine," which required mathematically proven beneficial self-modifications, by adopting an evolutionary approach. The core, and most striking, innovation is that the AI does not just evolve its own code in a static environment. Instead, it co-evolves both the "student" (the task-performing agent) and the "examiner" (the evaluation system that judges it). This creates a dynamic, recursive self-improvement loop inspired by the biological "Red Queen Hypothesis"—where continuous adaptation is needed just to maintain relative fitness. The mechanism operates in epochs. Within an epoch, a fixed examiner evaluates all candidate code variants. At epoch boundaries, a new, potentially more rigorous examiner can replace the old one, but only if it proves statistically superior on a held-out "ground truth" dataset. This "controlled utility evolution" aims to ensure progress is measurable and grounded. The paper demonstrates RQGM's effectiveness across three domains: 1. **Code Generation:** It achieved a 71.7% test-set pass rate (improving over a 69.9% SOTA) while using 1.35-1.72x fewer computational tokens. 2. **Paper Writing:** In a subjective task, the co-evolved writer and reviewer achieved a 40.5% acceptance rate by a fixed human panel, up from 21.8%. 3. **Math Proofs:** It evolved more accurate graders (at 3x lower cost) and higher-scoring provers. Notably, RQGM also mitigated a known LLM bias where AI reviewers favor AI-generated content. By specifically rewarding reviewers that correctly rejected AI-written papers from a historical pool, the evolved system achieved impartiality while maintaining 80% accuracy. The research has sparked significant discussion about the acceleration of Recursive Self-Improvement (RSI). Some, like Anthropic's Jack Clark, have predicted a high probability of highly autonomous, self-evolving AI emerging by 2028. The paper suggests that when an AI begins to design its own evaluators and push itself toward ever-higher standards in a recursive loop, it may be taking a fundamental step toward redefining intelligence and autonomy.

marsbit31m ago

NVIDIA's Annual 'Most Dangerous' Paper: AI Self-Replicating Code, Unlimited Leveling and Evolution

marsbit31m ago

Apple and the Power Rebalancing with 'The Microns': Dissecting the Profit Ledger Behind the iPhone

The article analyzes the shifting profit dynamics and power balance between Apple and memory suppliers like Micron within the iPhone supply chain. It highlights a social media post criticizing Apple for raising iPhone prices while blaming memory chip cost increases, despite historically paying suppliers like Micron very little. An estimated iPhone 18 cost breakdown is referenced. Historically, memory was a minor cost component. In 2017's iPhone X, memory accounted for only about 1.6-2.3% of the price, with Apple capturing nearly 50% net profit. Over time, memory's share of the Bill-of-Materials (BOM) cost has grown significantly, reaching an estimated 12-15% for the iPhone 17 series. The core driver of this change is soaring demand for memory from the AI industry, particularly for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and AI servers, which is diverting production capacity and squeezing supply for consumer electronics. Memory manufacturers, after enduring periods of low profits, now hold greater pricing power. This is reflected in their recent strong financials, like Micron's 84.6% gross margin. Apple CEO Tim Cook initially described the memory price pressure as unprecedented in his 40-year career, later calling it a "once-in-a-century flood," before Apple announced price hikes across several product lines, causing a significant stock drop. Elon Musk echoed Cook's sentiment about the dramatic cost surge. The article concludes that the era of memory suppliers being at the mercy of Apple's pricing power has temporarily reversed, thanks to AI-driven demand. It notes Apple is reportedly seeking to diversify its supply chain, including exploring chips from China's CXMT.

Odaily星球日报2h ago

Apple and the Power Rebalancing with 'The Microns': Dissecting the Profit Ledger Behind the iPhone

Odaily星球日报2h ago

Can BTC whales save Bitcoin after $4.06B ETF outflows?

Institutional demand for Bitcoin shows signs of weakening, with U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing seven consecutive days of net outflows, totaling roughly $4.06 billion in monthly outflows and reducing total ETF assets to $72.82 billion. This decline removes a key source of structural spot buying. However, large Bitcoin holders (whales) have shown increased accumulation activity as prices dipped below $60,000, with a significant spike in high-value transactions, suggesting they view the correction as a buying opportunity. This whale demand could help cushion near-term selling pressure. Conversely, Long-Term Holders are showing signs of capitulation, with metrics indicating realized losses and eroding conviction, which may eventually reduce future selling pressure. For a sustained recovery, broader spot market participation remains essential.

ambcrypto2h ago

Can BTC whales save Bitcoin after $4.06B ETF outflows?

ambcrypto2h ago

Conversation with the Founder of 42 Macro: The Fed's 'Boiling the Frog Slowly' and the K-Shaped Economy

In a conversation with Anthony Pompliano, Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the K-shaped U.S. economy. Dale characterizes new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as a "dove in hawk's clothing," expecting the Fed to signal or enact policy tightening in the coming quarters to create room for later easing. He argues current economic signals, including high deficit spending, debt monetization, and credit growth, strongly indicate inflation is not on a credible path back to 2%, forcing the Fed to act. The discussion highlights the stark "K-shaped" economic reality. While top earners, buoyed by massive cash savings (up ~$8 trillion since pre-pandemic), continue robust spending, those at the bottom face severe financial strain, with delinquency rates on consumer loans reaching crisis-era highs. Dale attributes much of the current social and political anxiety to this divergence, driven by the "Cantillon effects" of monetary expansion, which disproportionately benefits asset owners. He emphasizes that in this environment of "financial repression," individuals must participate in asset markets to avoid being left behind. On equities, Dale notes a rotation from the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants into broader AI-exposed companies, while warning that the tech giants' massive capital expenditure cycles could eventually puncture over-optimistic cash flow projections. Dale concludes by stressing that the core desire across all economic strata is simply the dignity to provide for one's family, a goal currently undermined by systemic policies that act as a "wealth siphon" from the bottom to the top.

marsbit2h ago

Conversation with the Founder of 42 Macro: The Fed's 'Boiling the Frog Slowly' and the K-Shaped Economy

marsbit2h ago

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

494 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions