从未失手的以太坊指标再次发出信号,本次指向700美元

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-06-11Last updated on 2026-06-11

Abstract

以太坊(ETH)价格目前徘徊在约1,606美元,正尝试巩固在去年4月以来的低位,月度跌幅达31%,较历史高点4,945美元下跌近70%。分析师Ali Martinez指出,曾成功预测前两次市场底部的Delta Price指标目前指向708美元,暗示若熊市持续,ETH可能还需从当前水平再跌56%,较历史高点累计下跌约85%。 短期关键水平方面,Martinez此前强调周线图上的1,850美元为重要关口,失守后跌势加速;下行目标1,560美元已在周末被跌破(ETH曾跌至1,500美元)。若跌势延续,下一重要支撑位在1,070美元,即多年区间的下轨。 要扭转看跌趋势,以太坊需满足两个条件:首先收复200周简单移动平均线(约2,500美元),然后有效突破50周简单移动平均线(约3,100美元)。目前市场卖压持续,两者均未接近实现。

以太坊(ETH)正试图在自去年4月以来从未见过的价格水平附近企稳,此前其月度跌幅已达31%。ETH目前交易价格约为1,606美元,较其4,945美元的历史高点下跌近70%。而根据一项指标显示,这轮跌势可能尚未结束。

前方还有56%的跌幅?

市场分析师阿里·马丁内斯(Ali Martinez)在X平台上指出了Delta价格指标,并注意到该指标已成功识别出以太坊此前两次的市场底部。目前,该指标数值位于708美元。

如果ETH在熊市结束前达到该水平,将意味着在当前价格基础上再下跌56%,较历史高点下跌约85%。

马丁内斯将Delta价格描述为一个旨在反映投资者成本基础与矿工生产成本之间关系的指标,该指标在历史上曾指出深度积累区域。

基于这一过往记录,他认为以太坊在开启任何持续性复苏之前,可能会重新回到700美元区间。

以太坊必须收复的两个水平

就短期而言,该分析师先前已指出周线图上1,850美元为关键水平,并警告称若失守该位置可能会加速抛售——这一判断后来已应验。他还曾将1,560美元标记为下行目标,随着ETH周末跌至1,500美元,该目标已被触及并击穿。

再往下看,马丁内斯先前已将1,070美元标记为下一个重要水平。他将其描述为一个多年区间的下边界,如果当前下跌趋势进一步加剧,这将是下一个目标。

在复苏方面,他概述了使市场转回看涨所需满足的两个条件:首先是收复位于2,500美元附近的200周简单移动平均线(SMA),其次是果断突破位于3,100美元附近的50周简单移动平均线。

目前,这两个条件都远未满足,因为抛售压力继续压制着以太坊和整个加密货币市场。

日线图显示ETH价格呈下降趋势。来源:TradingView.com上的ETHUSDT图表

特色图片使用OpenArt创建;图表来自TradingView.com

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