Une Saison Alt A-T-Elle Commencé ? Voici Ce Que Dit l'Indice de Saison des Altcoins

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-06-03Last updated on 2026-06-03

Abstract

Des hausses récentes de certains altcoins, comme Ethereum et Hyperliquid, ont ravivé les spéculations sur un possible début de « saison des altcoins ». Cependant, l'Altcoin Season Index, qui mesure la performance des 100 principaux altcoins face au Bitcoin sur 90 jours, affiche un score de seulement 36. Un score supérieur à 75 est généralement nécessaire pour indiquer le début d'une véritable saison des altcoins. Parallèlement, la domination du Bitcoin sur le marché a légèrement augmenté pour atteindre près de 59,88 %, ce qui ne correspond pas au schéma typique d'une saison des altcoins. Ce scénario nécessiterait une baisse de la domination du Bitcoin et une surperformance d'Ethereum, ce qui n'est actuellement pas le cas. Les données suggèrent donc que les hausses observées sont des rallyes ponctuels et isolés, et non l'amorce d'une nouvelle tendance de marché plus large en faveur des altcoins.

Récemment, plusieurs altcoins ont connu des hausses, avec Ethereum également en reprise, renforçant l'idée d'une saison alt. Avec des actifs comme Hyperliquid qui atteignent de nouveaux sommets historiques, cela a poussé certains des 100 principaux altcoins par capitalisation boursière à surpasser la performance du Bitcoin durant cette période. Alors que de plus en plus d'altcoins continuent de surperformer, cela signifie-t-il qu'une autre saison alt a commencé ? Ce rapport examine ce que disent les données.

L'Indice de Saison des Altcoins Affichant Un Score de 36

L'Indice de Saison des Altcoins a historiquement été l'indicateur qui signale quand le marché des cryptomonnaies entre dans une saison alt. Selon cet indice, il mesure la performance des 100 principaux altcoins par rapport à celle du Bitcoin sur une période de 90 jours, puis représente cela sur un score de 1 à 100 pour montrer quand le marché est entré dans une saison alt.

Historiquement, plus le score est élevé, plus la probabilité est grande que le marché des cryptomonnaies vive une saison alt. Habituellement, cela signifie que la surperformance du Bitcoin s'est arrêtée et que sa domination sur le reste du marché des cryptomonnaies a chuté drastiquement.

Actuellement, l'Indice de Saison des Altcoins affiche un score de 36, selon les données du site Coinglass. Par ailleurs, la domination du Bitcoin a commencé à se redresser à nouveau durant le week-end, dépassant les 59,88% au moment où dimanche est arrivé. Naturellement, ni l'un ni l'autre ne sont de bons signes pour une saison alt.

Disséquer les Données Pour une Saison Alt

Avec l'Indice de Saison des Altcoins aussi bas à 36, cela signifie que le marché ne vit pas réellement une saison alt. Habituellement, une saison alt commencerait avec un score supérieur à 75. Cela signifierait que 75 % des 100 principaux altcoins surperforment le Bitcoin sur une période de 3 mois pour que cela se produise.

De plus, la domination du Bitcoin sur le marché des cryptomonnaies a continué d'augmenter au lieu de baisser. C'est un signe que le marché ne se dirige en fait pas vers une saison des altcoins. Cela n'arriverait que lorsque la domination du Bitcoin commencerait à s'effondrer et que la domination des altcoins commencerait à augmenter.

Au vu des données, cela suggère que les hausses de certains altcoins ne sont que des rallyes ponctuels. Ethereum sous-performe également par rapport au Bitcoin durant cette période, et en tant que leader historique de la saison des altcoins, Ethereum devrait commencer à surperformer le Bitcoin pour déclencher la prochaine saison alt.

La capitalisation boursière des altcoins vacille | Source : Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC sur TradingView.com

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