山寨币季节已经开始了吗？山寨币季节指数告诉你答案

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-06-03Last updated on 2026-06-03

Abstract

近期一些山寨币出现上涨，以太坊也出现反弹，引发了市场对山寨季是否开始的讨论。尽管部分市值前100的山寨币表现超过比特币，但数据显示，目前山寨季指数仅为36分（满分100），远低于通常标志山寨季开始的75分门槛。这表明市场尚未进入真正的山寨季。同时，比特币市值占比在周末回升至59.88%以上，并未出现下跌，进一步证明市场仍由比特币主导。以太坊近期表现也弱于比特币，而历史上它往往是山寨季的引领者。因此，当前部分山寨币的上涨可能只是局部行情，整体市场条件尚未满足山寨季启动的特征。

近期，一些山寨币纷纷上涨，以太坊也有所复苏，这引发了市场对于山寨币季节是否到来的讨论。随着Hyperliquid等币种飙升至历史新高，市值排名前100的山寨币中，部分币种在这段时期的表现已超越比特币。随着越来越多的山寨币持续跑赢大盘，这是否意味着新一轮山寨币季节已经开启？本报告将通过数据来一探究竟。

山寨币季节指数得分36

山寨币季节指数历来是判断加密货币市场是否进入山寨币季节的指标。根据该指数，它衡量的是过去90天内，前100大山寨币相较于比特币的表现，并将其映射到1-100的得分区间，以此显示市场何时进入山寨币季节。

历史数据显示，得分越高，加密货币市场越有可能处于山寨币季节中。通常，这意味着比特币的超额表现已经停滞，其在整个加密市场中的主导地位急剧下降。

根据Coinglass网站的数据，目前山寨币季节指数的读数为36分。此外，比特币主导地位在上周末开始再次回升，到周日时已升至59.88%以上。自然，这两者对于山寨币季节而言都不是好兆头。

解析山寨币季节的数据

山寨币季节指数目前低至36分，意味着市场实际上并未经历山寨币季节。通常，山寨币季节开始时，指数得分应高于75。这意味着在3个月的时间框架内，前100大山寨币中有75%的表现优于比特币，才能触发山寨币季节。

此外，比特币在加密货币市场中的主导地位持续上升，而非下降。这表明市场实际上并未转向山寨币季节。山寨币季节只会在比特币主导地位开始崩溃，山寨币主导地位开始上升时发生。

基于现有数据，这表明一些山寨币的上涨仅仅是局部反弹。在此期间，以太坊的表现也逊于比特币，而作为山寨币季节的历史领头羊，以太坊必须开始跑赢比特币，才能触发下一次山寨币季节。

山寨币总市值表现疲软 | 来源：TradingView.com上的Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC

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