比特币：2022 年以来的跌宕起伏，能否摆脱投机标签走向成熟

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-05-12Last updated on 2026-05-12

Abstract

尽管价格出现短暂波动，但较低的实际波动率表明比特币市场正在走向成熟。

自 2022 年以来，比特币的价格波动剧烈。

2022年，加密货币市场经历了“加密寒冬”，市值从1.2万亿美元暴跌至3190亿美元。Terra/Luna崩盘、美联储大幅加息以及FTX破产等事件给加密货币市场带来了巨大压力。

然而，到 2024 年，市值已回升至接近 2 万亿美元。

由于现货比特币 [BTC] 和以太坊交易所交易基金的推出，2024 年加密货币市场得以回落。

2026年初，中东局势紧张进一步加剧了加密货币市场的压力。然而，即便在这样的背景下，比特币的波动性依然强劲，“使其波动性与主要科技股的波动性基本保持一致”。

计量经济学指出，自 2022 年底以来，比特币的交易波动性有时甚至低于英伟达的股票。

他们说得非常贴切： 比特币不再表现得像一个市场异常值。

比特币 vs. 英伟达

英伟达对比特币的走势图印证了这一说法，表明加密货币市场正越来越像一种重要的宏观资产。

尽管英伟达是只股票，但由于人工智能的推动，其交易动能非常强劲。有时，英伟达股价的上涨甚至比比特币更具动能和投机性。

比特币与黄金的比较等等

此外，比特币/黄金比率表明，即使在 2026 年下跌之后，它仍然明显高于 2023 年的水平。

这意味着在过去的周期中，比特币相对于黄金出现了结构性上涨，这支持了比特币正在成为更具竞争力的全球价值储存资产的观点。

比特币X平台上的比特币档案库也表达了类似的观点，该档案库报告称，自触底反弹以来，比特币已上涨28%，其中仅4月份就强劲上涨了12%。与此同时，标普500指数也上涨了16%。

Glassnode 对比特币已实现波动率的分析巩固了这一说法，因为其短期波动率有时仍然剧烈，但其长期波动率一直在逐渐下降。

然而，人们的担忧依然存在，因为与 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年的周期相比，2024 年的比特币周期中抛物线式上涨和价格增长较少。

总之，BloFin Research 的总结最为精辟，他们指出： 比特币当前周期表现远逊于以往任何一周期。

最终总结

比特币正变得越来越不像是一种投机性资产，其波动性更接近于大型科技股票。

尽管价格出现短暂波动，但较低的实际波动率表明比特币市场正在走向成熟。

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