比特币8万美元承压:ETF流出与多头清算夹击,宏观利好能否托底?

Cointelegraph中文Published on 2026-05-09Last updated on 2026-06-09

Abstract

近期现货比特币ETF的资金流出,未必意味着熊市已经开启。

要点总结:

  • 美元走软与政府债务上升利好稀缺资产,但现货比特币ETF资金流出与散户需求疲软引发担忧。
  • 市场预期凯文·沃什将出任美联储主席,这一变化可能对比特币形成利好。

比特币(BTC)周五在80,000美元附近窄幅震荡,此前在82,500美元处遭遇明显阻力。周四,美国上市的现货比特币ETF净流出2.68亿美元,结束了连续四天的净流入,令交易员情绪趋于谨慎。与此同时,过去24小时内,约2.7亿美元的杠杆看涨比特币期货头寸被清算,迫使市场重新评估:持续了数月的熊市,是否终于要来了?

美国上市比特币现货ETF每日净资金流动(美元)

数据来源:SoSoValue

周四ETF资金流向逆转,引发市场关注。这一转变尤其耐人寻味,因为标普500指数上周五刚刚创下历史新高。目前,传统市场并未出现普遍的去风险化迹象。以小盘股为代表的罗素2000指数,距离其历史高点仍不到2%。

比特币散户投资者正在离场?

Coinbase和Robinhood的财报令人失望,显示散户用户活跃度大幅下降,这引发了市场对比特币牛市能否持续的担忧。与2025年第一季度相比,Coinbase营收下降了31%,而Robinhood的加密货币相关收入同期暴跌了47%。

顶级交易员已将比特币多头头寸削减至四周多以来的最低水平。相比之下,一些巨鲸和做市商在周二比特币突破8万美元时一度加大多头持仓,但在周五又迅速减仓。

整体来看,巨鲸当前的多空比率仅为0.27,与十天前的1.20相比,差距明显。

两个支撑因素:美元走软与战略储备预期

尽管比特币衍生品市场呈现温和的看跌倾向,但仍有两大因素支撑着其长期走势。

第一,美元持续走弱。 过去两个月,美元兑主要法定货币一路下行。无论美国政府是否有意为之,这一趋势都降低了市场持有美国国债的意愿——尤其是在当前油价高企的背景下。

布伦特原油价格(左)与美元强弱指数(右)

来源:TradingView

第二,美国政府债务不断攀升,营造出对稀缺资产有利的投资环境。即便股市和黄金仍是大多数投资者的首选,比特币往往也能从美元走弱中受益。

此外,市场普遍预期美国战略比特币储备将开始增持。同时,凯文·沃什有望在近期接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔出任美联储主席。沃什本人持有大量加密资产及相关公司股份,此前也曾公开表达过对比特币的支持立场。

美国在2027年前将任何数量的比特币纳入其储备的可能性

数据来源:Polymarket

虽然实现比特币的“预算中性”储备策略目前仍被认为可能性较低,但美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特过去曾提及这一方向。因此,美元走弱叠加通胀上升,可能导致资金从固定收益资产流出,从而增加比特币持续上涨的概率。

总体而言,近期现货比特币ETF的资金流出,未必意味着熊市已经开启。即便顶级交易员当前的持仓显示出对短期反弹信心不足,但宏观层面的结构性支撑依然存在。

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