比特币跌破8万美元,ETF周流入首破10亿——回调还是蓄力?

Cointelegraph中文Published on 2026-05-08Last updated on 2026-05-08

Abstract

比特币在 82,800 美元附近遇到阻力,引发跌破 80,000 美元,但每周 11.05 亿美元流入现货比特币 ETF 可能会减缓卖方的行动。

周四,比特币 (BTC) 价格在关键动态阻力位受阻后跌至 79,800 美元。尽管比特币现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的周流入量自 1 月以来首次突破 10 亿美元,但价格仍出现回调。不过,技术数据显示,此次回调可能只是短暂的。

看跌背离预示着比特币价格的可能走势。

比特币跌破 8 万美元之际,一小时图和四小时图上的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 出现了看跌背离。当比特币价格创出新高,而 RSI 在较低时间框架内走弱时,就会出现看跌背离,这表明上涨行情中的买盘动能正在减弱。

守住周线开盘价 78,500 美元上方,可能有助于稳定短期价格走势。关键技术支撑区间依然在 76,000 美元至 78,000 美元之间,该区间内日线公允价值缺口 (FVG) 与比特币 200 日指数移动平均线 (EMA) 重合。如果回调持续,比特币可能会在尝试再次反弹至近期高点 82,800 美元上方之前,重新测试 FVG 区域。

公允价值缺口标志着价格之前发生剧烈波动但交易活动有限的区域,由此产生的不平衡往往会在回调期间成为流动性区域。

加密货币交易员Jelle表示, “200日均线/指数移动平均线集群”构成阻力,同时指出78,000美元是第一个主要支撑位。Jelle认为,如果比特币重新测试200日均线,则可能使其重新测试更高的价格目标。

与此同时,加密货币交易员Killa XBT指出,如果抛售压力持续,76,300美元至74,700美元区间将成为更深的支撑区域。该交易员还指出,周线开盘价接近78,500美元是多头试图捍卫的主要短期支撑位。

ETF资金流入能否抵消价格疲软?

本周现货比特币ETF需求大幅增强。净流入资金达到10.5亿美元,创下自1月第三周以来的最高单周流入量。如果周五收盘价上涨,将确认近四个月来最大的单周ETF资金流入量。

与此同时,Swissblock的数据显示,比特币风险指数已回落至接近零的水平,而ETF的净流入量也再次转正,约为3000枚比特币。从历史数据来看,风险指标升高通常伴随着ETF资金外流和市场整体抛售压力增大。

分析还指出,价格回调至低风险区域往往伴随着主要支撑位附近的重新积累。

“这种同步性依然存在。即使上周风险指数小幅走高,ETF也曾出现短暂的抛售,但随后迅速恢复。这表明ETF的需求正在吸收抛售压力。这仍然是一次由资金流动驱动的突破。”

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