分析:如果“最关键”的熊市考验失败,比特币价格可能暴跌至 5 万美元

Cointelegraph中文Published on 2026-05-07Last updated on 2026-05-07

Abstract

比特币价格分析认为,84,000 美元是多头“最关键”的夺回目标价位,因为跌至 50,000 美元新低的风险再次引起关注。

最新比特币价格分析显示,比特币(BTC)正接近熊市中最关键的阻力位。

要点:

比特币在 84,000 美元附近面临着可以说是最重要的阻力位。

分析警告称,如果未能重新夺回 200 日趋势线,则可能跌至 5 万美元的低点。

即使出现回调,牛市支撑带也必须守住。

比特币面临避免“熊市延续”的挑战

周三,加密货币投资公司 TradingShot在一篇X 帖子中透露了比特币多头的下一个关键决策点。

根据 TradingView 的数据, BTC 价格继续测试 82,000 美元,但 84,000 美元附近的区域将是下一个关键支撑位。

TradingShot 写道:“比特币即将测试其 1 日均线 200,这是熊市周期中最关键的阻力位,但它也已经进入了由前一个低点形成的枢轴区域。”

随附的图表将当前价格表现与 2022 年熊市进行了比较,中心为 200 天简单移动平均线 (SMA)。

当时,BTC/USD 在最初跌破 200 日均线后,从下方重新测试了该均线,但未能成功夺回——结果是跌至新的宏观低点。

分析继续说道:“这是比特币在下跌趋势中形成的常见模式,在 2022 年的熊市周期中也明显存在,这些枢轴区域是由之前的低点形成的,而之前的低点后来被测试为阻力位。”

如果历史重演,TradingShot 预计会出现大幅回调,底部目标价为 50,000 美元。

“如果比特币价格现在在‘垫脚石’形态上遭到拒绝,将确认比特币熊市周期将继续下探至 50000 美元;而如果价格突破该形态,则将否定这一形态,”报告总结道。

据Cointelegraph 报道,50,000 美元区域长期以来一直是那些认为熊市将继续的交易员们的最爱。

BTC价格支撑区间是“主要关注点”

评论员认为,如果200日均线是需要突破的阻力位,那么价格正下方两条趋势线必须作为支撑位加以守住。

相关报道:比特币价格逼近 8.2 万美元,触及“大关口”引发宏观经济可能再次受阻的警告

所谓的牛市支撑带,由 20 周简单移动平均线 (SMA) 和 21 周指数移动平均线 (EMA) 组成,位于 78,000 美元附近。

交易账户 Cryptic Trades 在其最新的 X 分析中表示,支撑带应继续作为“主要关注点”。

“我相信,只要价格继续保持在当前区间之上,以及2025年4月7.6万美元附近的底部形态不变,整体市场结构就依然完好无损。”该机构周三在一张解释性图表旁 写道。

“另一个需要关注的关键价位是紫色标记的、位于 84,000 美元附近的长期支撑区间,我认为我们可能会在该价位附近看到短期回调。”

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