AVAX’s rally odds – Here’s why traders should look out for liquidity

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-02-11Last updated on 2026-02-11

Abstract

Despite a quiet broader market, the Avalanche (AVAX) ecosystem has demonstrated significant on-chain strength. It recorded $135 million in monthly net inflows, ranking fourth for both weekly and daily inflows. Most notably, active addresses surged over 242% since early January, surpassing 1.6 million, indicating deep network engagement even as the price fell. Technically, AVAX found support between $8.85–$11.86, with the RSI deeply oversold and the MACD showing a bullish crossover, suggesting a potential local bottom. However, a true price reversal requires a confirmed increase in trading volume. A key factor is the concentration of upside liquidation liquidity between $10–$12, which could be a target for market makers and a potential catalyst for increased volatility. The data presents a tension between strong underlying adoption and bearish price action, setting the stage for a possible move driven by liquidity dynamics.

The AVAX ecosystem has continued to attract investor attention over the last few weeks, despite a quiet market. For example – On 10 February, activity across the sector slowed down significantly.

However, for its part, Avalanche remained as active as ever. In fact, the chain recorded $135 million in monthly net inflows and led the way among the market’s blockchains.

Addiitonally, its inflow trends stood out clearly too. Weekly inflows climbed to $60 million, while daily inflows totaled $7 million. Thanks to the same, Avalanche was ranked fourth in terms of both weekly and daily net inflows.

Hence, the question – Are more significant market moves ahead?

Active Addresses surprise for AVAX

That’s not all either. Avalanche’s [AVAX] active addresses have surged by over 242% since early January, surpassing all prior 2024 levels and hitting new highs.

According to Token Terminal data, monthly active addresses climbed beyond 1.6 million – A clear sign of intensified network engagement. Daily figures pushed even higher on 10 February, hitting record peaks above 1.6–1.7 million on the C-Chain.

This surge occurred despite the price action punishing holders, reflecting fractured confidence and widespread bearish sentiment. And yet, participants have continued to transact robustly, expanding usage despite deteriorating market mood.

Put simply, real adoption and on-chain conviction deepened even as surface-level narratives turned pessimistic. This is the kind of classic decoupling that often precedes reversals on the price charts.

Will the structural support hold on?

AVAX’s price action on the daily time frame told a brutal, unforgiving story. At press time, the altcoin had retraced over 84% from its October peak before stabilizing around the $8.85–$11.86 support zone.

Meanwhile, sellers showed clear exhaustion near the $8-level after sustained downside pressure. Therefore, downside momentum weakened as selling intensity gradually faded.

Notably, the MACD flashed a bullish cross directly at the support level during this phase. At the same time, the RSI remained deeply oversold at 29.87 too. As a result, the RSI holding at such depressed levels suggested AVAX was at or around a local bottom.

Worth noting, however, that technical signals alone might not be enough to shift market structure.

For a meaningful expansion to begin, volume must be expected to rise clearly. Without confirmation, the setup will risk becoming another failure, rather than a true reversal.

Upside liquidity concentrated at $10–$12

Downside liquidity had largely been cleared before 10 February 2026. As a result, the 2-week liquidation data showed growing upside liquidity clustered between $10 and $12 at press time.

This imbalance shifted attention upwards. Not because of optimism, but mechanics. Market makers often target such zones with ruthless efficiency.

Therefore, volatility might just be inevitable, rather than optional. As it stands, the liquidity is above the price, daring the market to react. Only time will tell if this liquidity can ignite the most awaited expansion for AVAX.


Final Thoughts

  • On-chain data reflected tension, not recovery, as capital and activity contradicted the damage seen on the price charts
  • AVAX may be primed for volatility, driven by liquidity.

Related Questions

QWhat was the amount of Avalanche's monthly net inflows and how did it rank among other blockchains?

AAvalanche recorded $135 million in monthly net inflows, leading the way among the market's blockchains.

QBy what percentage did Avalanche's active addresses surge since early January, and what milestone did they reach?

AAvalanche's active addresses surged by over 242% since early January, surpassing all prior 2024 levels and hitting new highs beyond 1.6 million.

QWhat two key technical indicators suggested that AVAX might be at a local price bottom?

AThe MACD flashed a bullish cross at the support level, and the RSI remained deeply oversold at 29.87, suggesting a local bottom.

QAccording to the liquidation data, where was the upside liquidity for AVAX concentrated?

AThe upside liquidity was concentrated in the $10 to $12 price range.

QWhat does the article suggest is the primary driver for potential upcoming volatility in AVAX's price?

AThe article suggests that the primary driver for potential volatility is liquidity mechanics, with market makers likely to target the concentrated liquidity zones above the current price.

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