4 năm Bitcoin thống trị – Đây là lý do tại sao năm 2021 là mùa altcoin cuối cùng!

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-03Last updated on 2026-01-03

Abstract

Chu kỳ năm 2025 đánh dấu sự phân kỳ đáng chú ý trên thị trường tiền điện tử. Trái ngược với lịch sử tăng mạnh sau mỗi lần halving, Bitcoin (BTC) kết thúc năm với mức giảm 6%. TOTAL3 (vốn hóa thị trường không bao gồm BTC và ETH) cũng ghi nhận năm thứ tư liên tiếp giảm so với Bitcoin, cho thấy mùa altcoin đã dần phai nhạt trong bốn năm qua. Sự thống trị của Bitcoin (BTC.D) tăng liên tục từ 40% (2022) lên hơn 60% (2025), thu hút gần 80% dòng vốn mới vào thị trường, tương đương khoảng 900 tỷ USD. Trong khi đó, đợt tăng năm 2021 từng là mùa altcoin điển hình khi TOTAL3 tăng 541%, vượt xa mức tăng 64% của BTC. Hiện tại, lãi suất funding cho altcoin tăng cao khiến các vị thế mua đòn bẩy bị quá tải, dễ gây ra các đợt thanh lọc khi thị trường đi ngang. Kết hợp với sự thống trị ngày càng tăng của BTC, altcoin trở nên dễ tổn thương và biến động mạnh. Điều này cho thấy năm 2021 có thể là mùa altcoin thực sự cuối cùng.

Chu kỳ năm 2025 đã mang đến một số sự phân kỳ thị trường đáng chú ý.

Theo lịch sử, Bitcoin [BTC] đã chứng kiến các đợt tăng mạnh sau mỗi lần halving, với bốn chu kỳ đầu tiên sau halving được thúc đẩy bởi tình trạng khan hiếm nguồn cung và mất cân bằng nhu cầu. Tuy nhiên, năm 2025 đã phá vỡ xu hướng đó, khiến BTC kết thúc năm giảm 6%.

Một sự phân kỳ tương tự cũng đang xuất hiện ở các altcoin. TOTAL3 (vốn hóa thị trường không bao gồm BTC và ETH) đã ghi nhận năm thứ tư liên tiếp giảm so với Bitcoin, về cơ bản chấm dứt "mùa altcoin" vốn đã mờ nhạt trong bốn năm.

Sự phân kỳ đó một cách tự nhiên hướng đến ảnh hưởng thị trường ngày càng tăng của BTC.

Về mặt kỹ thuật, điều này không có gì khó hiểu. Tỷ lệ thống trị của Bitcoin (BTC.D) đã tăng liên tiếp trong bốn năm, tăng từ khoảng 40% vào năm 2022 lên trên 60% vào năm 2025. Đó là mức tăng 100% vốn hóa thị trường, tương đương khoảng 900 tỷ USD được bổ sung.

Đáng chú ý, trong cùng khoảng thời gian, tổng vốn hóa thị trường tăng lên 1,11 nghìn tỷ USD, nghĩa là gần 80% nguồn vốn mới đó đổ vào BTC, làm nổi bật ảnh hưởng ngày càng tăng của nó. Trong bối cảnh này, liệu mùa altcoin có thực sự là dĩ vãng?

Nhìn lại đợt tăng giá năm 2021 – Tín hiệu thị trường altcoin then chốt

Nhìn lại, chu kỳ năm 2021 là một mùa altcoin điển hình.

Trên biểu đồ 12 tháng, vốn hóa thị trường của BTC kết thúc năm tăng 64%, vượt qua cột mốc lịch sử 1 nghìn tỷ USD. Thế nhưng, TOTAL3 (vốn hóa thị trường không bao gồm BTC và ETH) đã hoàn toàn vượt mặt, tăng trưởng đáng kinh ngạc 541%.

Kết quả? Chỉ số Mùa Altcoin (Altcoin Season Index) chạm đỉnh, báo hiệu một mùa altcoin toàn diện, với dòng vốn rõ ràng đang luân chuyển vào thị trường altcoin rộng lớn hơn. Tuy nhiên, kể từ đó, BTC đã nắm quyền kiểm soát. Câu hỏi đặt ra là – Điều gì thực sự đã thay đổi?

Câu trả lời rất đơn giản – Tỷ lệ funding (phí funding) của altcoin đã tăng vọt.

Nói một cách đơn giản, các vị thế mua đòn bẩy (long) đã quá đông, và mặc dù nghe có vẻ tích cực, nhưng điều đó thực chất lại khiến altcoin mắc kẹt trong một vòng lặp biến động. Ngay cả một động thái đi ngang nhỏ cũng có thể kích hoạt một loạt lệnh thanh lý.

Thêm vào đó là tỷ lệ thống trị BTC (BTC.D) tăng, altcoin đã trở nên cực kỳ dễ bị tổn thương trước những biến động mạnh. Trong bối cảnh này, sự phân kỳ ngày càng lớn giữa Bitcoin và altcoin không phải là một sự tình cờ. Thay vào đó, nó cho thấy lý do tại sao năm 2021 có lẽ là "mùa altcoin" thực sự cuối cùng.


Suy nghĩ cuối cùng

  • Tỷ lệ funding của altcoin đã tăng vọt, tạo ra các vị thế mua quá đông, khiến altcoin mắc kẹt trong một vòng lặp biến động.
  • Tỷ lệ thống trị Bitcoin tăng đã dẫn dòng vốn chảy về BTC, khiến altcoin dễ bị tổn thương và giải thích lý do tại sao năm 2021 có khả năng là "mùa altcoin" thực sự cuối cùng.

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Related Questions

QChu kỳ năm 2025 đã giới thiệu điều gì khác biệt so với các chu kỳ trước đó?

AChu kỳ năm 2025 đã phá vỡ xu hướng lịch sử khi Bitcoin (BTC) kết thúc năm giảm 6%, trong khi trước đây, BTC thường có các đợt tăng mạnh sau mỗi lần halving.

QChỉ số TOTAL3 cho thấy điều gì về thị trường altcoin?

AChỉ số TOTAL3 (vốn hóa thị trường không bao gồm BTC và ETH) đã trải qua năm thứ tư liên tiếp giảm so với Bitcoin, cho thấy mùa altcoin (altseason) đã mất dần sức mạnh trong bốn năm qua.

QTỷ lệ thống trị của Bitcoin (BTC.D) đã thay đổi như thế nào từ năm 2022 đến 2025?

ATỷ lệ thống trị của Bitcoin (BTC.D) đã tăng liên tiếp trong bốn năm, từ khoảng 40% vào năm 2022 lên trên 60% vào năm 2025, tương đương với mức tăng 100% về vốn hóa thị trường.

QTại sao đợt tăng giá năm 2021 được coi là một mùa altcoin điển hình?

ANăm 2021, vốn hóa thị trường của BTC tăng 64%, nhưng TOTAL3 đã tăng trưởng mạnh mẽ với 541%, cho thấy vốn đã xoay vòng rõ rệt vào thị trường altcoin rộng lớn hơn và Chỉ số Mùa Altcoin đạt đỉnh.

QTheo bài viết, nguyên nhân chính nào khiến năm 2021 có khả năng là mùa altcoin thực sự cuối cùng?

AHai nguyên nhân chính là: tỷ lệ funding của altcoin tăng cao, tạo ra các vị thế mua đòn bẩy quá đông đúc và dễ bị thanh lý; đồng thời, sự thống trị ngày càng tăng của Bitcoin đã thu hút vốn về BTC, khiến altcoin dễ bị tổn thương và biến động mạnh.

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