Momen Perdagangan: Perak Jatuh Usai Catat Rekor Baru, Lembaga Peringatkan Risiko Koreksi Logam Mulia, Bitcoin 'Rebound Kucing Mati'?

marsbitPublished on 2025-12-29Last updated on 2025-12-29

Abstract

Inti Artikel: Pasar logam mulia mengalami volatilitas tinggi, dengan perak mencapai rekor baru di atas 84 USD/ons sebelum anjlok ke level 78 USD karena profit-taking. Emas juga turun dari level tertingginya. Kebijakan ekspor perak Tiongkok yang baru dan kenaikan margin berjangka CME memicu kekhawatiran. Analis terbelah: Goldman Sachs optimis emas bisa tembus 4.900 USD, sementara UBS dan Capital Economics peringatkan risiko koreksi, memperkirakan perak bisa jatuh ke 42 USD pada akhir 2025. Di kripto, Bitcoin tembus 90.000 USD lagi, tetapi sentimen tetap hati-hati. Banyak analis, seperti Killa dan Ali Charts, melihat rebound saat ini sebagai "dead cat bounce" yang lemah, menunjuk pada arus keluar ETF Bitcoin yang besar. Namun, ada juga yang bullish seperti Astronomer yang menargetkan 112.000 USD. Ethereum bertahan di atas 3.000 USD, tetapi analis Murphy memperingatkan bahwa kerugian di bawah 2.700 USD dapat memicu penurunan lebih dalam. Acara utama yang ditunggu adalah TGE Lighter pada 29 Desember. Data utama (per 29/12): BTC 89.989 USD, ETH 3.033 USD, Indeks Fear & Greed: 24 (Takut). ETF Bitcoin catat arus keluar bersih pekan lalu. Beberapa token seperti HYPE dan KMNO akan mengalami unlock besar minggu ini.

Tinjauan data utama dan analisis tren harian, dipersembahkan oleh PANews.

1. Pengamatan Pasar

Minggu baru, pasar logam mulia menjadi sorotan. Perak spot menembus $84/ons untuk mencatat rekor baru, namun kemudian dihantam aksi jual ambil untung, jatuh dengan cepat dan berubah menjadi penurunan harian, akhirnya berfluktuasi di sekitar $78. Pergerakan 'roller coaster' ini langsung berdampak pada produk keuangan terkait. Emas spot mundur dari level tertinggi historis mendekati $4550, sementara platinum dan paladium keduanya turun mendekati atau melebihi 7%. Selain ekspektasi penurunan suku bunga Fed dan logika tradisional pembelian berkelanjutan oleh bank sentral, pasar mulai mempengaruhi narasi baru 'kontrol komoditas', di mana pentingnya geopolitik dan keamanan rantai pasokan semakin menonjol, terutama setelah China mengumumkan penerapan izin ekspor untuk perak mulai 1 Januari 2026, yang semakin memperketat ekspektasi pasokan fisik global. Namun, perbedaan pendapat pasar juga semakin tajam. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) untuk kedua kalinya dalam dua minggu menaikkan margin berjangka perak, memicu kekhawatiran akan terulangnya sejarah keruntuhan harga perak pada 2011 akibat langkah serupa. Lembaga seperti Goldman Sachs optimis emas akan terus menguat pada 2026, dengan harga target mungkin melampaui $4900, tetapi UBS dan Capital Economics memperingatkan bahwa harga logam mulia telah menyimpang dari fundamental, dan risiko koreksi menumpuk. Capital Economics bahkan memprediksi harga perak bisa turun kembali ke $42 pada akhir tahun depan. Untuk perak, meskipun permintaan industrinya di bidang seperti tenaga surya kuat, analisis menunjukkan harga jika menyentuh $134/ons dapat menyebabkan kerusakan permintaan; sedangkan tembaga sebagai pengganti potensial, karena modifikasi pabrik membutuhkan setidaknya 4 tahun, dalam jangka pendek sulit menjadi ancaman. Lembaga seperti Guojin Securities berpendapat bahwa tema investasi utama 2026 telah terlihat dalam komoditas, rantai industri, dan pasar valuta asing, yaitu dalam struktur di mana investasi lebih besar daripada konsumsi, rentang perdagangan komoditas memanjang, keunggulan manufaktur China menonjol, dan sumber daya industri yang beresonansi dengan investasi AI dan pemulihan manufaktur global patut diperhatikan.

Dibandingkan dengan volatilitas tajam pasar logam mulia, pasar cryptocurrency secara keseluruhan diliputi sentimen hati-hati dan lesu, bahkan ketika Bitcoin hari ini kembali menembus $90.000. Sebagian besar analis bersikap hati-hati terhadap prospek pasar, misalnya analis Killa berpendapat, meskipun mungkin ada rebound jangka pendek, arah utama masih mencari support di bawah $70.000, dan menilai siklus ini telah berakhir. Ali Charts juga menyampaikan pandangan serupa, berpendapat bahwa dalam konteks arus keluar modal bersih mencapai $4,5 miliar dan ETF Bitcoin mengalami arus keluar bersih hampir $1 miliar dalam dua minggu terakhir, setiap rebound mungkin merupakan 'lompatan kucing mati' yang tidak didukung permintaan spot. Laporan 10x Research juga menunjukkan, volume perdagangan pasar crypto saat ini 30% lebih rendah dari normal, pasar di bawah permukaan yang tenang justru bergejolak, terlihat sangat rentan. Namun, tidak kurang juga suara bullish di pasar. Analis Astronomer melalui analisis likuiditas menunjukkan, pasar telah membangun likuiditas short yang cukup di area $94.000 hingga $95.000, menciptakan kondisi untuk harga menyerang target $112.000 ke atas. Michaël van de Poppe berharap, dengan perputaran dana dari pasar logam mulia yang kepanasan ke pasar crypto, Bitcoin berpeluang melangkah ke $100.000 dalam minggu depan. Analis Plan B dengan mengingat sejarah di mana bull run 2021 mengalami koreksi lebih dari 50% di tengah jalan namun masih mencatat rekor baru, mengisyaratkan koreksi saat ini mungkin hanya koreksi normal dalam siklus. Samson Mow bahkan mengajukan pernyataan berani '2025 adalah bear market', memprediksi Bitcoin mungkin memulai bull run yang berlangsung sepuluh tahun. Di tingkat teknis, para analis memperhatikan level kunci, Ardi menunjuk apakah Bitcoin dapat menembus area resistensi $90.000 hingga $94.600 secara efektif, serta mempertahankan zona support $80.000 hingga $86.300, menjadi inti untuk menilai arah pasar selanjutnya.

Ethereum meski kembali menembus $3000, sentimen pasar hati-hati. Analis on-chain Murphy melakukan analisis lebih mendalam, dia berpendapat kontradiksi utama yang dihadapi Ethereum saat ini bukan tekanan posisi terikat di atas, tetapi struktur keuntungan di bawah yang terlalu tersebar. Dia menunjuk, $2700 adalah area support kuat yang dapat membentuk konsensus, sekali tembus, harga mungkin masuk ke 'zona vakum' tanpa support efektif, area kosong terdekat di bawah antara $1800 hingga $2600. Meski begitu, dia juga mengamati kelompok paus yang memegang lebih dari 100.000 ETH ada aksi tambah posisi di sekitar $2700, menunjukkan sikap 'optimis jangka panjang, hati-hati jangka pendek'. Untuk pergerakan jangka pendek, analis teknis CyrilXBT menyebut Ethereum sebagai 'pegas yang melingkar', berpendapat perlu menembus $3345 untuk melepaskan momentum naik. Michaël van de Poppe memberikan level kunci spesifik: $2775 adalah level support yang tidak boleh ditembus, jika tidak dapat memicu penurunan berantai; sedangkan sekali menembus resistensi $3000 ke atas, berpeluang cepat menyerang $3650.

Saat ini yang paling diperhatikan pasar adalah TGE dari pertukaran perpetual terdesentralisasi Lighter, pasar umumnya mengantisipasi akan dilakukan pada 29 Desember. Berdasarkan detail airdrop yang dirilis, tim mengonfirmasi airdrop akan mencakup 25% dari total pasokan, tidak perlu diklaim, langsung dikirim ke dompet pengguna, sementara tim menjelaskan transfer token dalam jumlah besar baru-baru ini adalah untuk penyimpanan bagian investor dan tim. Sementara itu, proyek公链 Flow mengalami insiden keamanan di akhir pekan, seorang penyerang memanfaatkan kerentanan di lapisan eksekusinya untuk mentransfer dana sekitar $3,9 juta, menyebabkan node validator menghentikan operasi sementara untuk menyebarkan perbaikan; pihak proyek menyatakan, saldo pengguna tidak terpengaruh dalam insiden ini, protokol juga tidak memiliki risiko solvabilitas. Selain itu, token ZEROBASE ZBT dalam waktu singkat harga sempat menembus $0,2, naik 78% dalam 24 jam.

2. Data Kunci (Per 29 Desember 13:00 HKT)

(Sumber data: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

  • Bitcoin: $89989 (tahun ini -3.25%), volume perdagangan spot harian $31,45 miliar

  • Ethereum: $3033 (tahun ini -9.2%), volume perdagangan spot harian $28,28 miliar

  • Indeks Takut & Serakah: 24 (Takut)

  • GAS rata-rata: BTC: 1,75 sat/vB, ETH: 0,02 Gwei

  • Dominasi pasar: BTC 59,1%, ETH 12%

  • Peringkat volume perdagangan 24 jam Upbit: BTC, ZBT, XRP, ETH, 0G

  • Rasio Long/Short BTC 24 jam: 50,99% / 49,01%

  • Naik/turun sektor: Sektor crypto umumnya naik, sektor SocialFi naik lebih dari 3%, hanya sektor Layer2 yang turun sedikit

  • Data likuidasi 24 jam: Secara global 61926 orang dilikuidasi, total jumlah likuidasi $151 juta, di antaranya likuidasi BTC $41,87 juta, likuidasi ETH $35,69 juta, likuidasi ZEC $6,55 juta

3. Aliran ETF (Per 26 Desember)

  • ETF Bitcoin: Minggu lalu arus keluar bersih $782 juta, BlackRock IBIT arus keluar bersih $435 juta tertinggi

  • ETF Ethereum: Minggu lalu arus keluar bersih $102 juta, BlackRock ETHA arus keluar bersih $69,42 juta tertinggi

  • ETF Solana: Minggu lalu arus masuk bersih $13,14 juta

  • ETF XRP: Minggu lalu arus masuk bersih $64 juta

4. Tinjauan Hari Ini

  • Pendaftaran pengembalian dana kasus 'Lantian Gerui' ditutup 29 Desember, terlewat mungkin memengaruhi pengembalian dana

  • Binance akan menghapus pasangan perdagangan margin FDUSD seperti EIGEN/FDUSD, ARB/FDUSD pada 30 Desember

  • Studio game Web3 ChronoForge karena kekurangan dana akan ditutup 30 Desember

  • Padre: Pemegang PADRE akan menerima PUMP sesuai jumlah kepemilikan, perlu kirim alamat dompet sebelum 30 Desember

  • Shanghai Futures Exchange: Mulai penutupan 30 Desember, batas naik/turun kontrak berjangka emas dan perak disesuaikan menjadi 15%, sekaligus menyesuaikan rasio margin

  • LOF Perak Guotou: Batas atas investasi rutin Kelas A turun kembali ke 100 yuan, bagian Kelas C akan mulai ditangguhkan pembelian, berlaku mulai 29 Desember

  • 51WORLD, Lin Qingxuan diperkirakan terdaftar di Bursa Hong Kong pada 30 Desember

  • Hyperliquid (HYPE) akan membuka kunci sekitar 9,92 juta token pada 29 Desember pukul 15:30, rasio terhadap pasokan yang beredar sekitar 2,87%, nilai sekitar $256 juta;

  • Kamino (KMNO) akan membuka kunci sekitar 229 juta token pada 30 Desember pukul 20:00, rasio terhadap pasokan yang beredar sekitar 5,35%, nilai sekitar $11,8 juta;

  • Slash Vision Labs (SVL) akan membuka kunci sekitar 234 juta token pada 30 Desember pukul 08:00, rasio terhadap pasokan yang beredar sekitar 2,96%, nilai sekitar $6,8 juta;

  • Zora (ZORA) akan membuka kunci sekitar 166 juta token pada 30 Desember pukul 08:00, rasio terhadap pasokan yang beredar sekitar 4,17%, nilai sekitar $6,7 juta.

Kenaikan maksimum 100 token teratas berdasarkan kapitalisasi pasar hari ini: Canton Network naik 11,3%, Midnight naik 10,3%, DoubleZero naik 4,7%, Lido DAO naik 4,5%, Zcash naik 3,9%.

5. Berita Terkini

  • Data: Token HYPE, SUI, EIGEN dll akan menghadapi pembukaan kunci besar minggu depan, di antaranya HYPE membuka kunci nilai sekitar $256 juta

  • Pengingat minggu ini | UE, Inggris, Hong Kong dll negara dan wilayah melaksanakan regulasi baru aset digital terkait; Hyperliquid (HYPE) membuka kunci token sekitar $256 juta

  • Diduga Trend Research membeli lagi 11520 ETH, nilai $34,93 juta

  • Analisis: Dalam sembilan minggu terakhir ETF spot Bitcoin akumulasi arus keluar bersih hampir $6 miliar, sisi dana pasar dan sentimen terus terbebani

  • Pendapatan Hyperliquid minggu lalu hanya $9,16 juta, terendah sejak awal Mei

  • Volume perdagangan spot DEX Solana tahun ini hingga kini telah melebihi $1,7 triliun, melampaui Bybit melompat ke peringkat kedua

  • Paus tertentu 7 jam lalu menarik 2218 ETH, 37,1 juta SKY dan 4772 AAVE dari Kraken

  • Perak spot menembus $80/ons, mencatat rekor baru

  • Pendiri bersama Hyperliquid: 1,2 juta token HYPE akan dialokasikan kepada anggota tim pada 6 Januari setelah pembukaan kunci

  • Bubblemaps: Proyek token Meme ATLAS diduga ada perdagangan orang dalam, 68 dompet telah memegang 47% pasokan token

  • Indeks premium Bitcoin Coinbase telah berada dalam premium negatif selama dua minggu berturut-turut, sementara dilaporkan -0,0784%

  • 100 juta UNI telah dihancurkan dari perbendaharaan Uniswap, nilai $596 juta

  • Flow diserang peretas rugi $3,9 juta, setoran pengguna tidak terpengaruh

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Related Questions

QApa yang menyebabkan harga perak mengalami penurunan tajam setelah mencapai rekor tertinggi baru?

AHarga perak turun tajam karena aksi ambil untung (profit-taking) setelah mencapai rekor tertinggi di atas $84/ons. Selain itu, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) menaikkan margin untuk futures perak untuk kedua kalinya dalam dua minggu, yang memicu kekhawatiran akan pengulangan sejarah crash harga perak tahun 2011.

QApa pendapat analis mengenai pergerakan harga Bitcoin saat ini dan ke depannya?

AAnalis memiliki pandangan beragam. Sebagian, seperti Killa dan Ali Charts, bersikap hati-hati dan menganggap kenaikan saat ini mungkin hanya 'dead cat bounce' (pantulan kucing mati) yang tidak didukung permintaan spot, dengan target support di bawah $70,000. Di sisi lain, analis seperti Astronomer dan Michaël van de Poppe melihat potensi kenaikan menuju $112,000 atau bahkan $100,000 dalam minggu depan, didukung analisis likuiditas dan perputaran dana dari logam mulia.

QRisiko apa yang diidentifikasi oleh analis untuk harga Ethereum berdasarkan struktur kepemilikan saat ini?

AAnalis Murphy mengidentifikasi bahwa masalah utama Ethereum bukanlah tekanan jual dari posisi yang terkunci (bagholder) di atas, tetapi struktur kepemilikan yang menguntungkan di bawah yang terlalu tersebar. Level support kunci berada di $2,700. Jika level ini tembus, harga bisa jatuh ke 'zona vakum' tanpa support yang efektif, dengan area kosong terdekat antara $1,800 dan $2,600.

QPeristiwa penting apa yang terjadi di pasar crypto selain pergerakan harga aset utama?

ABeberapa peristiwa penting termasuk: TGE (Token Generation Event) untuk pertukaran perpetual terdesentralisasi Lighter yang diantisipasi pada 29 Desember, serangan hacker pada proyek blockchain Flow yang menyebabkan kerugian sekitar $3,9 juta, dan penurunan batas investasi untuk reksa dana perak Tiongkok (国投白银LOF) mulai 29 Desember.

QBagaimana tren aliran dana (flow) untuk ETF Bitcoin dan Ethereum menurut data terbaru?

ABerdasarkan data hingga 26 Desember, ETF Bitcoin mengalami arus keluar bersih (net outflow) sebesar $782 juta pada minggu lalu, dengan iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) milik BlackRock mengalami arus keluar terbesar sebesar $435 juta. Sementara itu, ETF Ethereum juga mengalami arus keluar bersih sebesar $102 juta, dengan ETHA milik BlackRock mengalami arus keluar terbesar sebesar $69,42 juta.

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DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

381 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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