交易时刻：白银新高后跳水，机构预警贵金属回调风险，比特币呈“死猫反弹”？

marsbitPublished on 2025-12-29Last updated on 2025-12-29

Abstract

白银市场经历剧烈波动，现货白银创下84美元历史新高后迅速回落至78美元，黄金、铂金等贵金属普遍下跌。市场关注中国白银出口许可政策及交易所保证金上调带来的回调风险，机构对后市看法分歧。比特币虽突破9万美元，但市场情绪谨慎，分析师预警可能下探7万美元支撑，反弹或为“死猫跳”。以太坊重回3000美元，但技术面显示支撑薄弱，若失守2700美元可能深调。此外，多个代币将迎大额解锁，市场资金面承压，板块表现分化，恐慌情绪持续。

每日行情重点数据回顾和趋势分析,由PANews出品。

1.市场观察

新的一周,贵金属市场首当其冲,现货白银突破84美元/盎司创下历史新高后,遭遇获利了结盘的打压,迅速跳水并转为日内下跌,最终在78美元附近震荡。这一“过山车”行情直接冲击了相关金融产品,现货黄金从接近4550美元的历史高位回落,铂金与钯金跌幅均接近或超过7%。除了美联储降息预期和央行持续购金的传统逻辑外,市场开始定价“商品控制权”的新叙事,即地缘政治和供应链安全的重要性日益凸显,特别是中国宣布自2026年1月1日起对白银实施出口许可,进一步加剧了全球实物供应的紧张预期。然而,市场分歧也随之加剧,芝加哥商品交易所(CME)两周内二次上调白银期货保证金,引发了市场对2011年因类似举措导致银价崩盘的历史重演的担忧。高盛等机构看好黄金在2026年继续走强,目标价或超越4900美元,但瑞银和凯投宏观则警告称,贵金属价格已脱离基本面,回调风险累积,凯投宏观甚至预测银价明年底可能回落至42美元。对于白银而言,尽管其在太阳能等领域的工业需求强劲,但分析指出价格若触及134美元/盎司,可能导致需求破坏;而铜作为其潜在替代品,因工厂改造至少需要4年,短期内难以构成威胁。国金证券等机构认为,2026年的投资主线已在商品、产业链和外汇市场中显现,即在投资大于消费的格局下,大宗商品交易区间拉长,中国制造业优势凸显,与AI投资和全球制造业复苏共振的工业资源品值得关注。

与贵金属市场的剧烈波动相比,加密货币市场整体弥漫着谨慎与低迷的情绪,即使比特币今日再次突破9万美元。多数分析师对后市持谨慎态度,例如分析师Killa认为,尽管短期或有反弹,但大方向仍是向下寻求70000美元下方的支撑,并判断本轮周期已经结束。Ali Charts也表达了类似观点,认为在资本净流出高达45亿美元、比特币ETF过去两周净流出近10亿美元的背景下,任何反弹都可能是缺乏现货需求支撑的“死猫跳”。10x Research的报告亦指出,当前加密市场交易量较常态低30%,市场在表面平静下实则暗流涌动,显得格外脆弱。然而,市场中也不乏看涨的声音。分析师Astronomer通过流动性分析指出,市场已在94000至95000美元区域构建了足够的空头流动性,为价格向上冲击112000美元的目标创造了条件。Michaël van de Poppe则预期,随着资金从过热的贵金属市场轮动至加密市场,比特币有望在未来一周内向10万美元迈进。分析师Plan B则通过回顾2021年牛市中途经历超50%回调后仍创下新高的历史,暗示当前的回调可能只是周期内的正常修正。Samson Mow更是提出了“2025年即是熊市”的大胆论断,预测比特币或将开启一个长达十年的牛市。在技术层面,分析师们正密切关注关键价位,Ardi指出比特币能否有效突破90000美元至94600美元的阻力区间,以及守住80000美元至86300美元的支撑带,成为判断后市走向的核心。

以太坊尽管再次突破3000美元,但市场情绪谨慎。链上分析师Murphy对此进行了更深度的剖析,他认为当前以太坊面临的主要矛盾并非上方的套牢盘压力,而是下方获利筹码结构过于分散。他指出,2700美元是目前少数能形成共识的强力承接区,一旦失守,价格可能会进入一个缺乏有效支撑的“真空地带”,下方最近的空档区域在1800至2600美元之间。尽管如此,他也观察到持有超过10万枚ETH的巨鲸群体在2700美元附近有加仓行为,呈现出“长期乐观,短期谨慎”的姿态。对于短期走势,技术分析师CyrilXBT将以太坊形容为一个“盘绕的弹簧”,认为其需要突破3345美元才能释放上涨动能。Michaël van de Poppe则给出了具体的关键价位:2775美元是不可跌破的支撑位,否则可能引发连锁下跌;而一旦向上突破3000美元阻力,则有望快速冲击3650美元。

目前市场最关心的是去中心化永续交易所Lighter的TGE,市场普遍预期将于12月29日进行,根据其发布的空投细节,团队确认空投将占总供应量的25%,无需领取,直接发放至用户钱包,同时团队澄清了近期的大额代币转移是为保管投资者和团队的份额。与此同时,公链项目Flow周末遭遇了一次安全事件,一名攻击者利用其执行层的一个漏洞转移了约390万美元的资金,导致验证节点一度暂停运营以部署修复程序;项目方表示,用户余额在此次事件中未受影响,协议也不存在偿付风险。此外,ZEROBASE代币ZBT在短时间内价格一度突破0.2美元,24小时内涨幅高达78%。

2. 关键数据(截至12月29日13:00 HKT)

(数据来源:CoinAnk、Upbit、SoSoValue、CoinMarketCap)

  • 比特币:89989美元(年初至今-3.25%),日现货交易量314.5亿美元

  • 以太坊:3033美元(年初至今-9.2%),日现货交易量为282.8亿美元

  • 恐贪指数:24(恐惧)

  • 平均GAS:BTC:1.75 sat/vB、ETH:0.02 Gwei

  • 市场占有率:BTC 59.1%,ETH 12%

  • Upbit 24 小时交易量排行:BTC、ZBT、XRP、ETH、0G

  • 24小时BTC多空比:50.99% / 49.01%

  • 板块涨跌:加密板块普遍上涨,SocialFi板块涨逾3%,仅Layer2 板块小幅下跌

  • 24小时爆仓数据:全球共61926人被爆仓 ,爆仓总金额为1.51亿美元,其BTC爆仓4187万美元、ETH爆仓3569万美元、ZEC爆仓655万美元

3.ETF流向(截至12月26日)

  • 比特币ETF:上周净流出7.82亿美元,贝莱德IBIT净流出4.35亿美元居首

  • 以太坊ETF:上周净流出1.02亿美元,贝莱德ETHA净流出6942万美元居首

  • Solana ETF :上周净流入1314万美元

  • XRP ETF:上周净流入6400万美元

4. 今日前瞻

  • “蓝天格锐案”资金清退登记12月29日截止,错过或影响资金返还

  • Binance将于12月30日下架EIGEN/FDUSD、ARB/FDUSD等FDUSD保证金交易对

  • Web3游戏工作室ChronoForge因资金短缺将于12月30日关停

  • Padre:PADRE持有者将按其持有量获得PUMP,需在12月30日前提交钱包地址

  • 上期所:12月30日收盘起,黄金、白银期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为15%,同时调整保证金比例

  • 国投白银LOF:A类定投上限降回100元,C类份额将开始暂停申购,12月29日起执行

  • 五一视界、林清轩港股预计于12月30日挂牌上市

  • Hyperliquid(HYPE)将于12月29日下午3点30分解锁约992万枚代币,与流通量的比值约为 2.87%,价值约2.56亿美元;

  • Kamino(KMNO)将于12月30日晚上8点解锁约2.29亿枚代币,与流通量的比值约为 5.35%,价值约1180万美元;

  • Slash Vision Labs(SVL)将于12月30日上午8点解锁约2.34亿枚代币,与流通量的比值约为 2.96%,价值约680万美元;

  • Zora(ZORA)将于12月30日上午8点解锁约1.66亿枚代币,与流通量的比值约为 4.17%,价值约670万美元。

今日市值前100币种最大涨幅:Canton Network涨11.3%、Midnight涨10.3%、DoubleZero涨4.7%、Lido DAO涨4.5%、Zcash涨3.9%。

5. 热点新闻

  • 数据:HYPE、SUI、EIGEN等代币将于下周迎来大额解锁,其中HYPE解锁价值约2.56亿美元

  • 本周预告 | 欧盟、英国与香港等国家和地区执行相关数字资产新规;Hyperliquid(HYPE)解锁约2.56亿美元的代币

  • 疑似Trend Research再度购入11520枚ETH,价值3493万美元

  • 分析:过去九周比特币现货ETF累计净流出近60亿美元,市场资金面与情绪持续承玉

  • Hyperliquid上周收入仅为916万美元,创下5月初以来新低

  • Solana DEX现货交易量年内迄今已超1.7万亿美元,超越Bybit跃居第二

  • 某巨鲸7小时前从Kraken提取2218枚ETH、3710万枚SKY和4772枚AAVE

  • 现货白银突破80美元/盎司,创下新记录

  • Hyperliquid联创:120万枚HYPE代币将在解锁后于1月6日分配给团队成员

  • Bubblemaps:Meme币项目ATLAS疑似存在内幕交易,68个钱包已持有47%代币供应量

  • Coinbase比特币溢价指数已连续两周处于负溢价,暂报-0.0784%

  • 1亿枚UNI已从Uniswap财库销毁,价值5.96亿美元

  • Flow遭黑客攻击损失390万美元,用户存款未受影响

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Related Questions

Q白银价格在创下历史新高后为何迅速跳水？

A白银价格在突破84美元/盎司创下历史新高后，遭遇了获利了结盘的打压，导致价格迅速跳水并转为日内下跌，最终在78美元附近震荡。

Q机构对贵金属市场的未来走势有何分歧？

A高盛等机构看好黄金在2026年继续走强，目标价或超越4900美元；但瑞银和凯投宏观则警告称，贵金属价格已脱离基本面，回调风险累积，凯投宏观甚至预测银价明年底可能回落至42美元。

Q比特币当前的反弹被部分分析师称为什么？其依据是什么？

A部分分析师（如Ali Charts）将比特币当前的反弹称为“死猫跳”（死猫反弹）。其依据是，在资本净流出高达45亿美元、比特币ETF过去两周净流出近10亿美元的背景下，任何反弹都可能是缺乏现货需求支撑的。

Q以太坊的关键支撑位和阻力位分别是多少？

A技术分析师Michaël van de Poppe指出，以太坊的关键支撑位是2775美元，若跌破可能引发连锁下跌；而一旦向上突破3000美元阻力位，则有望快速冲击3650美元。

Q根据文章，哪些代币即将迎来大额解锁？其中解锁价值最高的是哪个？

A根据文章，Hyperliquid (HYPE)、Kamino (KMNO)、Slash Vision Labs (SVL) 和 Zora (ZORA) 等代币即将迎来大额解锁。其中，Hyperliquid (HYPE) 的解锁价值最高，约2.56亿美元。

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While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

1.4k Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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