Pas d'altseaon crypto en 2026 selon un analyste : seuls les 'survivants de premier ordre' l'emporteront

cointelegraphPublished on 2025-12-23Last updated on 2025-12-23

Abstract

L'analyste Jeff Ko de CoinEx Research prédit qu'il n'y aura pas de "altseason" (saison des altcoins) traditionnelle en 2026. Selon lui, la liquidité sera sélective et se concentrera principalement sur les cryptomonnaies "blue-chip" ayant une adoption réelle, décevant ainsi les investisseurs particuliers qui s'attendaient à une hausse généralisée. Ko anticipe des vents favorables modestes de liquidité mondiale en 2026 et prévoit que le Bitcoin pourrait atteindre 180 000 dollars d'ici là. Cependant, l'analyste vétéran Peter Brandt a une vision différente, prédisant un marché baissier prolongé. Il estime que le cycle actuel n'est pas terminé et projette que le prochain sommet du marché haussier se produira en septembre 2029, s'alignant sur la théorie du cycle de quatre ans. Un déclin de 80% par rapport aux cycles précédents pourrait faire chuter le BTC à 25 000 dollars avant cette hausse. Historiquement, le quatrième trimestre est généralement fort pour le Bitcoin, mais cette année, il a enregistré une baisse de plus de 22%, son deuxième pire quatrième trimestre. Le Bitcoin trade actuellement autour de 88 000 dollars, en baisse de 30% par rapport à son sommet d'octobre.

Le rallye habituel des altcoins devrait s'estomper l'année prochaine, seules les cryptomonnaies « blue chip » bénéficiant de la part du lion de la liquidité, déclare Jeff Ko, analyste en chef de CoinEx Research.

« Les investisseurs particuliers qui s'attendent à ce que la marée montante fasse monter tous les bateaux seront déçus », a déclaré Ko à Cointelegraph. « Nous prévoyons qu'il n'y aura pas d'altseason traditionnel ; à la place, la liquidité sera impitoyablement sélective, n'affluant que vers les survivants de premier ordre ayant une adoption réelle. »

Ko anticipait « de modestes vents favorables de liquidité mondiale en 2026 », tempérés par des politiques de banques centrales divergentes, mais a ajouté que la sensibilité historique du Bitcoin à la croissance de la masse monétaire M2 « s'est atténuée depuis le lancement des ETF en 2024, la corrélation diminuant ».

Il a ajouté que le « scénario de base de l'entreprise voit le Bitcoin viser 180 000 dollars d'ici 2026 ».

Cependant, tous les analystes ne sont pas d'accord, l'analyste vétéran Peter Brandt prédisant un autre marché baissier long et prolongé.

Le Bitcoin atteindra son prochain pic en 2029

Brandt, un trader de futures chevronné, a déclaré mardi qu'en 15 ans, le Bitcoin a connu cinq avancées paraboliques sur une échelle logarithmique suivies de baisses d'au moins 80 %, mais que « le cycle actuel n'est pas encore terminé ».

Cependant, interrogé sur le creux de ce cycle, il a « projeté que le prochain sommet du marché haussier se produirait en septembre 2029 ».

Cette prédiction coïnciderait parfaitement avec la théorie du cycle de quatre ans et le pic survenant un an après l'événement de halving, prévu vers avril 2028. Cependant, une baisse de 80 % comme lors des cycles précédents pourrait faire chuter le BTC à 25 000 dollars avant que cela ne se produise.

*Les cinq avancées paraboliques du Bitcoin. Source :* *Peter Brandt*

Le cycle de quatre ans est-il mort ?

Historiquement, le quatrième trimestre de l'année a souvent été l'une des périodes les plus fortes pour le Bitcoin. Huit des 12 derniers quatrièmes trimestres ont enregistré les plus fortes gains trimestriels du Bitcoin, et un seul d'entre eux était un gain à un chiffre, selon Coinglass.

Article connexe : La demande apparente de Bitcoin diminue, signalant un nouveau marché baissier : Analysts

Cependant, le Bitcoin a perdu plus de 22 % sur le trimestre en cours, marquant son deuxième quatrième trimestre le plus mauvais de l'histoire jusqu'à présent.

Le flux d'investissement macro Milk Road a déclaré lundi que « cela signifie généralement que le marché a évacué beaucoup de risques excessifs et de positions faibles ».

« Donc pour 2026, cela ne garantit pas automatiquement une hausse, mais historiquement, les cycles qui se terminent par une lourde remise à zéro ont tendance à avoir de meilleures conditions pour se renforcer. »

Le Bitcoin (BTC) s'échange actuellement autour de 88 000 dollars, en baisse de 30 % par rapport à son plus haut historique d'octobre.

Magazine : Le niveau critique du Bitcoin est de 82,5 K$, Ethereum 'n'a pas encore fini' : Trade Secrets

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Pas d'altseaon crypto en 2026 selon un analyste : seuls les 'survivants de premier ordre' l'emporteront

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