Es improbable una altasea de criptomonedas en 2026, ya que los 'superviventes de primera categoría' saldrán ganando: Analista

cointelegraphPublished on 2025-12-23Last updated on 2025-12-23

Abstract

Según el analista Jeff Ko de CoinEx Research, es poco probable que ocurra un "altseason" (temporada de alzas de altcoins) tradicional en 2026. En su lugar, prevé que la liquidez será selectiva y fluirá principalmente hacia criptomonedas "blue-chip" con adopción real, decepcionando a los inversores minoristas. Ko anticipa vientos de cola de liquidez global moderados en 2026 y proyecta que Bitcoin podría alcanzar los $180,000 para ese año. Sin embargo, otros analistas como Peter Brandt predicen un mercado bajista prolongado, sugiriendo que el próximo pico alcista de Bitcoin ocurriría en septiembre de 2029, siguiendo el ciclo de cuatro años. Bitcoin actualmente cotiza alrededor de $88,000, un 30% por debajo de su máximo histórico de octubre.

Es probable que el típico repunte de los altcoins disminuya el próximo año, y solo las criptomonedas de "primera categoría" obtendrán la mayor parte de la liquidez, afirma Jeff Ko, analista jefe de CoinEx Research.

"Los inversores minoristas que esperan que la marea alta levante todos los barcos se sentirán decepcionados", dijo Ko a Cointelegraph. "Predecimos que no habrá una altseason tradicional; en cambio, la liquidez será despiadadamente selectiva, fluyendo solo hacia los supervivientes de primera categoría con adopción real".

Ko anticipó "modestos vientos de cola de liquidez global en 2026", atenuados por políticas divergentes de los bancos centrales, pero añadió que la sensibilidad histórica de Bitcoin al crecimiento de la oferta monetaria M2 "se ha suavizado desde el lanzamiento de los ETF en 2024, con una correlación decreciente".

Añadió que el "escenario base de la compañía ve a Bitcoin apuntando a $180,000 para 2026".

Sin embargo, no todos los analistas están de acuerdo, y el analista veterano Peter Brandt predice otro mercado bajista prolongado.

Bitcoin alcanzará su próximo pico en 2029

Brandt, un comerciante veterano de futuros, dijo el martes que en 15 años, Bitcoin ha experimentado cinco avances parabólicos en una escala logarítmica seguidos de disminuciones de al menos el 80%, pero el "ciclo actual aún no ha terminado".

Sin embargo, cuando se le preguntó sobre el fondo de este ciclo, "proyectó que el próximo máximo del mercado alcista ocurriría en septiembre de 2029".

La predicción se alinearía perfectamente con la teoría del ciclo de cuatro años y el pico que llega un año después del evento de halving, programado para alrededor de abril de 2028. Sin embargo, una disminución del 80% como se vio en ciclos anteriores podría enviar a BTC cayendo de nuevo a $25,000 antes de que eso suceda.

*Los cinco avances parabólicos de Bitcoin. Fuente:* *Peter Brandt*

¿Está muerto el ciclo de cuatro años?

Históricamente, el cuarto trimestre del año a menudo ha sido uno de los períodos más fuertes de Bitcoin. Ocho de los últimos 12 cuartos trimestres han visto las mayores ganancias trimestrales de Bitcoin, y solo una de ellas fue una ganancia de un solo dígito, según Coinglass.

Relacionado: La aparente demanda de Bitcoin se reduce, señalando un nuevo mercado bajista: Analistas

Sin embargo, Bitcoin ha bajado más del 22% durante el trimestre actual, marcando su segundo peor cuarto trimestre de la historia hasta ahora.

El feed de inversión macro Milk Road dijo el lunes que "esto generalmente significa que el mercado ha eliminado mucho riesgo excesivo y posiciones débiles".

"Así que para 2026, no garantiza automáticamente una subida, pero históricamente, los ciclos que terminan con un reinicio pesado tienden a tener mejores condiciones para construir fuerza".

Bitcoin (BTC) se cotiza actualmente alrededor de $88,000, un 30% menos que su máximo histórico de octubre.

Revista: El nivel crítico de Bitcoin es de $82.5K, Ethereum 'no ha terminado todavía': Secretos Comerciales

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Es improbable una altasea de criptomonedas en 2026, ya que los 'superviventes de primera categoría' saldrán ganando: Analista

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Bitcoin alcanzará su próximo pico en 2029

¿Está muerto el ciclo de cuatro años?

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