Altcoin khó có mùa tăng giá vào năm 2026 khi 'những đồng tiền số xanh' sẽ chiến thắng: Nhà phân tích

cointelegraphPublished on 2025-12-23Last updated on 2025-12-23

Abstract

Phân tích viên Jeff Ko từ CoinEx Research dự báo năm 2026 sẽ không có "altseason" (mùa altcoin tăng mạnh) truyền thống, thay vào đó, thanh khoản sẽ chỉ tập trung vào các tiền mã hóa "blue-chip" có ứng dụng thực tế. Ông kỳ vọng Bitcoin có thể đạt 180.000 USD vào năm 2026 dù tương quan với nguồn cung tiền M2 đã giảm sau khi ETF được phê duyệt. Trái ngược với quan điểm này, nhà phân tích kỳ cựu Peter Brandt dự đoán thị trường gấu còn kéo dài và Bitcoin chỉ đỉnh tiếp vào tháng 9/2029, phù hợp với lý thuyết chu kỳ 4 năm sau sự kiện halving (vào khoảng tháng 4/2028). Hiện Bitcoin giao dị quanh 88.000 USD, giảm 30% so với đỉnh tháng 10.

Đợt tăng giá altcoin điển hình nhiều khả năng sẽ giảm dần vào năm tới, với chỉ các loại tiền mã hóa "blue chip" mới nhận được phần lớn thanh khoản, nhà phân tích trưởng của CoinEx Research Jeff Ko cho biết.

"Các nhà đầu tư nhỏ lẻ kỳ vọng thủy triều lên sẽ nâng tất cả các con thuyền sẽ thất vọng," Ko nói với Cointelegraph. "Chúng tôi dự đoán sẽ không có mùa altcoin truyền thống; thay vào đó, thanh khoản sẽ được chọn lọc một cách khắc nghiệt, chỉ chảy về những đồng tiền số xanh sống sót có được sự ứng dụng thực tế."

Ko dự đoán "những cơn gió ngược thanh khoản toàn cầu khiêm tốn vào năm 2026," được kiềm chế bởi các chính sách ngân hàng trung ương khác biệt, nhưng ông nói thêm rằng độ nhạy cảm lịch sử của Bitcoin đối với tăng trưởng cung tiền M2 "đã mềm mại hơn kể từ khi ra mắt ETF vào năm 2024, với mối tương quan giảm dần."

Ông nói thêm rằng "kịch bản cơ sở của công ty nhắm mục tiêu Bitcoin đạt 180.000 USD vào năm 2026."

Tuy nhiên, không phải tất cả các nhà phân tích đều đồng ý, với nhà phân tích kỳ cựu Peter Brandt dự đoán một thị trường gấu kéo dài khác.

Bitcoin sẽ đạt đỉnh tiếp theo vào năm 2029

Brandt, một nhà giao dịch kỳ cựu, cho biết hôm thứ Ba rằng trong 15 năm, Bitcoin đã trải qua năm đợt tăng parabolic trên thang logarit, sau đó là các đợt suy giảm ít nhất 80%, nhưng "chu kỳ hiện tại vẫn chưa kết thúc."

Tuy nhiên, khi được hỏi về đáy của chu kỳ này, ông "dự đoán đỉnh cao tiếp theo của thị trường bò sẽ xảy ra vào tháng 9 năm 2029."

Dự đoán này sẽ hoàn toàn phù hợp với lý thuyết chu kỳ bốn năm và đỉnh điểm đến một năm sau sự kiện halving, dự kiến vào khoảng tháng 4 năm 2028. Tuy nhiên, một đợt suy giảm 80% như trong các chu kỳ trước có thể khiến BTC lao dốc trở về mức 25.000 USD trước khi điều đó xảy ra.

Năm đợt tăng parabolic của Bitcoin. Nguồn: Peter Brandt

Chu kỳ bốn năm đã chết?

Theo lịch sử, quý IV của năm thường là một trong những giai đoạn mạnh nhất của Bitcoin. Tám trong số 12 quý IV vừa qua đã chứng kiến mức tăng trưởng theo quý lớn nhất của Bitcoin, và chỉ một trong số đó là mức tăng một con số, theo Coinglass.

Related: Nhu cầu đối với Bitcoin dường như thu hẹp, báo hiệu thị trường gấu mới: Các nhà phân tích

Tuy nhiên, Bitcoin đã giảm hơn 22% trong quý hiện tại, đánh dấu quý IV tồi tệ thứ hai trong lịch sử cho đến nay.

Kênh đầu tư vĩ mô Milk Road cho biết hôm thứ Hai rằng "điều này thường có nghĩa là thị trường đã xả rất nhiều rủi ro dư thừa và vị thế yếu."

"Vì vậy, đối với năm 2026, nó không tự động đảm bảo tăng giá, nhưng theo lịch sử, các chu kỳ kết thúc với một sự thiết lập lại mạnh mẽ thường có điều kiện tốt hơn để xây dựng sức mạnh."

Bitcoin (BTC) hiện đang giao dịch quanh mức 88.000 USD, giảm 30% so với mức cao kỷ lục hồi tháng 10.

Magazine: Mức quan trọng của Bitcoin là 82,5K USD, Ethereum 'vẫn chưa xong': Trade Secrets

Related Questions

QPhân tích viên Ko Jeff từ CoinEx dự đoán gì về thị trường altcoin vào năm 2026?

AÔng dự đoán thị trường altcoin sẽ không có đợt tăng trưởng mạnh toàn diện (altseason) vào năm 2026. Thanh khoản sẽ rất chọn lọc và chỉ chảy vào các đồng tiền điện tử 'blue-chip' có ứng dụng thực tế, chứ không nâng toàn bộ thị trường.

QMục tiêu giá Bitcoin mà CoinEx Research đặt ra cho năm 2026 là bao nhiêu?

ACoinEx Research có kịch bản cơ sở dự đoán Bitcoin sẽ nhắm mục tiêu lên 180.000 USD vào năm 2026.

QNhà phân tích kỳ cựu Peter Brandt dự báo chu kỳ tăng tiếp theo của Bitcoin sẽ diễn ra khi nào?

APeter Brandt dự báo đỉnh cao tiếp theo của thị trường giá lên sẽ xảy ra vào tháng 9 năm 2029.

QTheo bài viết, tại sao quý 4 năm nay được coi là một trong những quý tồi tệ nhất đối với Bitcoin?

AQuý 4 năm nay là một trong những quý tồi tệ nhất vì Bitcoin đã giảm hơn 22%, đánh dấu quý 4 tồi tệ thứ hai trong lịch sử tính đến thời điểm hiện tại.

QMối tương quan lịch sử giữa Bitcoin và tăng trưởng cung tiền M2 đã thay đổi như thế nào theo phân tích?

ATheo phân tích, mối tương quan lịch sử giữa Bitcoin và tăng trưởng cung tiền M2 'đã mềm đi kể từ khi các quỹ ETF ra mắt vào năm 2024, với mối tương quan ngày càng giảm'.

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