【每日投研焦点】138个主力地址扫货BTC 俄乌局势增加新变数

火必研究院Published on 2022-03-01Last updated on 2022-03-09

Abstract

俄乌局势变化较多,两方谈判暂时缓和了局势,金融市场普遍向上期间BTC价格迎来强劲反弹。

俄乌局势变化较多,两方谈判暂时缓和了局势,金融市场普遍向上期间BTC价格迎来强劲反弹。行情方面BTC主力吸筹迹象出现,投资者可关注俄乌局势推动的加密货币使用率提升,对行情向上的推动作用。

1、BTC价格:区间内强震反弹,俄乌事件影响较大

BTC在2月最后一个交易日迎来反弹走势,价格短线涨幅高达18%,是重要区间内波动强度最高的一次。回顾过去一年内的BTC价格走向,斐波那契61.8%对应的28307美元确认了重要支撑后,近期在斐波那契50%对应的36077美元的反转依然有效,双底支撑提升价格向上反弹,投资者可关注BTC在关键压力位斐波那契38.2%对应的43847美元的突破效果。

BTC区间内强震反弹

2、链上巨鲸地址数:数量飙升,筹码快速集中

链上巨鲸地址数迎来飙升信号,数据从低位2118扩大至2256,增长高达138个地址。也就是说,持币地址数为1000枚以上的地址数增长高达6.5%的情况下,主力已经开始抄底动作。目前的巨鲸地址是为2021年6月15日以来最高,高于2021年9月27日的2200个地址。从主力操盘的角度分析,BTC已经蓄势待涨。

BTC链上巨鲸地址数

3、Purpose BTC ETF持仓:逆势增持BTC,提示买点

Purpose BTC ETF近期的持仓变化增长期间,与多数基金对BTC增持趋势一致,表明投资者对BTC价格的认可度依然较高。Purpose BTC ETF持仓BTC数量不高,2月27日最新数值为32329枚BTC,相对2月9日的低点28845枚BTC增加12%。BTC巨鲸持币地址数增长与基金持仓增加方向一致,意味着近期行情表现机会依然较多。

Purpose BTC ETF持仓量

4、全球市场动向:乌克兰欲加入欧盟,俄乌局势瞬息万变

俄罗斯被禁用SWIFT后,卢布对BTC和USDT的交易量激增。同时,乌克兰接受加密资产捐赠的数量在2月23日以后大幅度增长。这表明,俄乌局势利好加密货币使用。

消息面,3月1日,乌克兰总统泽连斯基签署加入欧盟的正式申请文件。与此同时,乌克兰驻欧盟代表弗谢沃洛德·琴佐夫(Vsevolod Chentsov)表示,欧盟已正式启动审议乌克兰入籍申请的程序。若乌克兰成功加入欧盟,那么俄乌局势将新增更多变数,加密货币在局势混乱期间使用率提升,无疑是推升BTC价格的因素之一。因此,短期依然可以关注反弹节奏。

BTC/RUB和USDT/RUB交易量

BTC/UAH和USDT/UAH交易量

5、热门板块和币种:存储板块表现较好,AR持续反弹

今日24小时涨幅前五的板块分别为:Celo Ecosystem(CeLo生态)涨幅8.0%、Farming-as-a-Service (FaaS)(挖矿服务)涨幅6.1%、IoTeX Ecosystem(IoTeX生态)涨幅6.1%、Zilliqa Ecosystem(ZIL生态)涨幅6.0%和Centralized Exchange Token(中心化交易所代币)涨幅5.2%。排名前一百币种中,今日上涨的前五币种有:WAVES(40%)、RUNE(24.5%)、LUNA(20.6%)、THETA(19.0%)、FTM(3.0%)。

整体市场涨幅空间提升,涨幅排名前五板块中,WAVES和LUNA的7天上涨达101%和77%。所属板块可关注智能合约和算法稳定币板块。

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