5张图表看懂当前比特币市场现状

marsbitPublished on 2025-11-20Last updated on 2025-11-21

比特币价格已从10月6日创下的12.6万美元的历史高点暴跌约30%。今年以来,比特币价格涨幅已跌至负值,过去12个月的涨幅不足1%。不出所料,比特币持有者对该资产的表现非常失望。

网络上的舆论情绪几乎是我记忆中最负面的。但网络上的轶事可能会误导人。Reddit 或 X 之类的平台可能只是回音室。那么,数据究竟告诉了我们什么呢?

以下五张图表解释了正在发生的事情。

1、比特币上次这个价格时,全球流动性比现在低 7 万亿美元。

首先,Zerohedge 的数据显示,“比特币上次这个价格时,全球流动性比现在低 7 万亿美元。”

比特币价格

这个数据点严重违背了之前的预期。包括我在内的所有人都预期比特币会缩小其价格与全球流动性之间的差距。既然这种情况没有发生,许多人都在质疑,随着华尔街开始接受这种资产,市场是否已经发生了根本性的变化。

无论原因如何,比特币在过去一个半月内下跌了30%的事实毋庸置疑。 

2、这是比特币本轮周期中的“第三次30%回调”

James van Straten解释说,这是比特币本轮周期中的“第三次30%回调”。每一次回调,从峰值到谷底的时间都在缩短,这加速了市场恐慌情绪的蔓延。

  • 2024年8月(日元套利):147天
  • 2025年4月:(关税)77天
  • 2025年11月:42天

比特币价格

3、此次回调目前已进入超卖区域

Coin Bureau数据显示,“比特币日线RSI指标已跌至26,为2月份以来的最低水平,表明比特币已进入超卖区域。”

比特币价格

4、95%短期持有者处于亏损状态

Quinten Francois指出,类似的动态也发生在短期持有者的盈亏供应中。我们看到,过去 155 天内购买的所有代币中,超过 95% 目前都处于亏损状态。

比特币价格

这显然是迅速引发市场恐慌、打击市场情绪的一种方式。但市场不会永远低迷下去。最终,某种资产的价格会降到足够低的水平,从而重新吸引投资者。也许比特币的价格会降到每枚9万美元,也许更低。我不知道价格持续回升的确切水平是多少。

5、比特币巨鲸积极购买比特币

然而,Bitwise 的 André Dragosch 表示,比特币巨鲸(拥有超过 1000 个比特币的人)突然开始以当前的价格水平积极购买比特币。

比特币价格

因此,尽管全球流动性激增,比特币价格却暴跌。目前比特币已被严重超卖,这诱使比特币巨鲸们再次开始买入。

而恐惧与贪婪指数仍然低于20。

比特币价格

正是这种波动性、混乱和不确定性,造就了比特币持有者们多年来的种种经历。

那些在众人陷入疯狂时仍能保持冷静的人,历来都取得了不错的成绩。然而,说起来容易做起来难。

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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