跌破10万美元只是开始?比特币“巨鲸”一个月狂抛450亿美元,抛售潮或会持续到明年春季

华尔街日报Published on 2025-11-05Last updated on 2025-11-05

比特币跌破10万美元,或暗示新一轮更猛烈的抛售来袭,因为有迹象表明这一次推动市场下行的并非杠杆爆仓,而是长期持有者的持续抛售。

11月5日,比特币一度下跌7.4%,跌破10万美元,为6月以来首次,较一个月前创下的历史高点已累计下跌逾20%。

市场数据显示,过去24小时内约20亿美元加密货币头寸被清算,远低于上月暴跌时的190亿美元。比特币期货未平仓合约保持低位,这意味着杠杆因素已不再是主导力量。

根据10x Research负责人Markus Thielen的数据,过去一个月内,长期比特币持有者已抛售约40万枚比特币,价值约450亿美元,导致市场供需失衡。

分析师警告,这种抛售潮可能持续到明年春季,比特币或进一步跌至8.5万美元。

现货抛售主导,市场动力机制转变

本轮下跌的核心特征是现货市场的持续卖压,而非加密货币交易者近期习以为常的期货清算连锁反应。过去24小时内,约20亿美元的加密货币头寸被清算,这一数字相比上月暴跌时的190亿美元显得微不足道。

K33研究主管Vetle Lunde表示,过去一个月内超过31.9万枚比特币被重新激活,主要来自持有6至12个月的币种,"这表明自7月中旬以来出现了大规模获利了结。虽然部分重新激活源于内部转账,但很多反映了真实的抛售行为。"

比特币期货未平仓合约仍处于低位,期权交易者则通过看跌期权在8万美元水平下注。在杠杆相对平静的背景下,市场焦点已转向选择卖出的长期持有者。

"巨鲸"停止买入,抛售潮或延续至明年春季

Markus Thielen指出,长期持有者抛售比特币与新买家入场之间日益加剧的失衡正在开始塑造市场方向,而不仅仅是情绪层面。

如果说10月的暴跌是被迫抛售,那么当前的回调可能反映了更令人警醒的现象:信念正在瓦解。

今年早些时候,Thielen观察到"超级巨鲸"(持有1000至1万枚比特币的实体)开始大量抛售,当时机构投资者试图吸收供应。但自10月10日暴跌以来,更广泛的需求已经消退。

Thielen表示:"我们突破了一些链上指标——人们处于亏损状态,他们需要平仓。"总体而言,持有100至1000枚比特币的群体的累积量急剧下降。"巨鲸根本不在买入,"他说。

展望未来,Thielen警告称,这种抛售可能持续到明年春季。在2021-2022年熊市期间,大型持有者在近一年时间里卖出了超过100万枚比特币,Thielen认为这一规模可能重演。

"如果是类似的速度,我们可能会看到这种情况再持续六个月。"

他并未预测灾难性的暴跌,但认为存在进一步下跌空间。"我不相信周期理论,"Thielen表示,"但我认为我们会有所盘整,并可能从这里进一步小幅走低。8.5万美元是我的最大下行目标。"

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752 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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