After a period of bearish trend throughout last week, Bitcoin’s price is now slowly picking up its pace as it heads toward the pivotal $112,000 mark. During this negative action, short-term BTC investors appear to be the ones taking the impact of the crash the most, as the price drops below the STH’s Realized Price.
Realized Price Signals Pressure On New Bitcoin Investors
Bitcoin’s Realized Price metric is painting a clear picture of who’s bearing the brunt of the latest market downturn, and it’s the short-term holders. The sharp decline in the price of Bitcoin following a broader market crash has put short-term BTC holders on edge.
On-chain data shows that these key investors, especially the ones who entered the market most recently, are feeling the pain in the market. As reported by Darkfost, a market expert and author at CryptoQuant, the investors are underwater due to the price falling below the short-term holders’ cost basis.
After examining the Bitcoin Realized Price – UTXO Age Bands metric, the expert revealed that the cost basis from 1m–3m STHs is currently sitting around $114,700, which BTC is still trading below. What this means is that these investors, who acquired BTC at higher prices during the recent rally, are now facing losses.
However, for investors who entered more than 3 months ago, their cost basis is positioned closer to the $106,800, just like those acquiring the flagship asset right now. With BTC trading above the $111,000 price level, this positioning implies that these slightly older investors are still in profit.
According to Darkfost, the investors are currently serving as a buffer zone, and their price range continues to hold up well as a strong support point. Nonetheless, in earlier corrections, even this group was finally put under pressure.
With short-term holders under pressure, the expert has pointed out two possible scenarios that could unfold in the upcoming days. Darkfost has predicted that the short-term holders are likely to continue defending their cost basis, building a strong and firm support level for a bullish recovery.
On the other hand, these investors could also be forced to capitulate for a short period before the market regains its upside trajectory. Even though the market awaits any of the scenarios, the expert noted that these corrections are probably coming to an end in both cases.
A Rise In Capitulation Amid The Crash
In the meantime, Darkfost has highlighted that capitulation is intensifying, but this is a situation that is required within the ongoing waning market action. BTC’s shortest-term investors are beginning to capitulate heavily. The rising capitulation implies a surge in selling pressure among the newest investors.
During the weekend, BTC Realized losses (7-day MA) rose to $750 million per day. This figure marks one of its highest levels in the ongoing cycle when compared to what was observed around the summer 2024 correction.
While the cycle progresses, Darkfost has stressed the importance of monitoring these capitulation phases. This is because they usually represent local bottoms, as long as the bear market is not entering the early stages.
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