比特币与黄金上涨的核心秘密

华尔街日报Published on 2025-09-24Last updated on 2025-09-24

今年3月以来，全球M2持续攀升，至今已突破114万亿美元。而与全球流动性走势高度相关的比特币价格，及其他高贝塔资产停止跟随上涨，出现了与流动性脱钩的现象。特别在近期美联储降息后，全球流动性快速提升之际，比特币却未能同步反映出当前支撑风险资产的宏观环境。

而与此同时，黄金价格持续走强，屡破新高。本频道在8月26日《黄金：震荡即将结束，金价仍将上涨？》一文中提醒至今，黄金价格已上涨13.5%。今年以来黄金已上涨44.5%，近一个月回报率12.4%，为1980年以来月度回报率的98%分位高点。

随着9月季度末回购市场压力、担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）在美联储转向宽松时仍维持在4.4%以上、以及商业票据与国库券利差转为负值等典型信号表明，当前控制流动性流向的并非货币总量，而是资产负债表和抵押品约束。

由于流动性淤积在银行存款、主权融资等安全渠道，未能大量流入风险资产，因此比特币等加密资产也未对M2的攀升做出反应；而黄金上涨则显示市场偏好向“抵押品”倾斜，反映避险需求和去美元化布局。

比特币或有望迎来新一轮上涨

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