17 亿爆仓惊魂,市场迎黑色星期一

Foresight NewsPublished on 2025-09-22Last updated on 2026-08-17

Abstract

全网未平仓合约 24 小时爆仓 17 亿美元,创年内新高,其中多单爆仓 16.17 亿美元。

撰文:1912212.eth,Foresight News

9 月 22 日今晨,BTC 还维持在 11.5 万美元上方,不过仅数小时后于今日 2 时许,BTC 失守 11.5 万美元后,突然大幅下跌接连失守整数关口位,一度下探至 11.18 万美元,现回升至 112800 美元。ETH 则从 4500 美元附近一度下探至 4077 美元,现回升至 4100 美元上方。SOL 一度下探至 214.5 美元,众多山寨币也遭遇普跌。

coinglass 数据显示,全网未平仓合约 24 小时爆仓 17 亿美元,创年内新高,其中多单爆仓 16.17 亿美元,最大单笔爆仓价值 1274 万美元。

美联储鲍威尔宣布降息 25 个基点才不过数天,市场便迎来如此下跌,是牛市暂停,还是市场已经悄然转向?

ETH 鲸鱼大幅抛售,市场消化美联储降息利好

聪明的鲸鱼总是在市场情绪火热以及阶段性顶部区间不断获利止盈。数据分析师 Murphy 援引 glassnode 图表显示,9 月 18 日,持有 1000-1 万枚 ETH 的鲸鱼单日套现 15 亿美元,加上 1 万 -10 万枚,以及超 10 万枚 ETH 的鲸鱼之外,总规模套现 21.5 亿美元。

今年 7 月,当 ETH 突破 3500 美元后,也出现了巨额套现,不过因部分美国财库公司积极买入,因而价格并未下跌。

值得一提的是,财库公司 Bitmine 现在持有 215.1 万枚的 ETH (90 亿美元 ),成本价 3949 美元,尽管公司此前明确表示短期内不会出售持仓,但市场关注若 ETH 跌破成本其股价表现及后续增持能力打个问号。

ETH 表现乏力,山寨币表现可想而知,除部分 BNB Chain 生态以及 DEX 衍生品之外均出现不小跌幅。

此外,9 月初以来,市场普遍预期美联储将会降息 25 个基点。因而 BTC 从 10.7 万美元一路震荡上扬,美联储决议公布之后一度触及 11.79 万美元。利好出尽,往往会迎来市场回调。

后续市场方向分析

glassnode 早前发布分析表示,比特币的 CBD(Cost Basis Distribution)热图显示,供给集中在 11.7 万美元左右,构成关键阻力区。突破该水平可能开启进一步供应减少的通道,若未能突破则可能延长盘整或引发回调。

Matrixport 发布市场观点称,「在过往一段时间里,以太坊多头仓位的风险回报更为优越。但随着行情进入快速拉升阶段,技术指标往往失效。尤其当周度随机指标触及极端高位并出现反转时,投资者的谨慎与否,往往决定了盈利能否锁定。过去几月,以太坊财库公司一直是主要买方,随着净资产缩水,其追加资金的能力或将受到限制。在此背景下,严格的风险管理显得更为稳妥。」

Weiss Crypto 则发推表示,美联储降息的效果需等到 12 月中旬才能真正显现。其模型显示,横向震荡可能还会持续 30 至 60 天,10 月 17 日可能会出现明显底部。值得一提是,近期 Weiss Crypto 预测行情阶段性顶部为 9 月 20 日附近。

历史数据显示,BTC 往往在 9 月份迎来下跌,虽然今日出现了一波小幅跳水,但目前 BTC 月线仍保持小阳线的状态,若 9 月月线下跌「玄学」成真,那么在接下来的一周左右时间里,BTC 恐怕还要出现超 3% 的进一步回调。

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1.9k Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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