Кто мешает Ethereum достичь заветной отметки $5 000

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-09-14Last updated on 2025-09-20

Рост Ethereum к отметке $5 000 может столкнуться с новыми препятствиями. Ряд ончейн-сигналов указывает на встречный ветер для актива

Долгосрочные держатели (LTH) ETH активно продают свои монеты, что может создать давление на рынок. Кроме того, медвежий настрой трейдеров фьючерсами на Ethereum угрожает краткосрочному росту.

LTH фиксируют прибыль, тормозя прорыв Ethereum

Месячная консолидация цены ETH дала возможность долгосрочным держателям (LTH) зафиксировать прибыль после ралли альткоина в конце августа до исторического максимума. Эта тенденция заметна по метрике Liveliness. По данным Glassnode, она достигла годового пика на 0,704.

ETH и метрика Liveliness
ETH и метрика Liveliness. Источник: Glassnode

Индикатор отслеживает активность LTH , анализируя движение ранее неактивных токенов. Когда он падает, LTH выводят свои активы с бирж, что указывает на накопление. Когда Liveliness растет, это значит, что больше неактивных монет продается. Это сигнал об увеличении фиксации прибыли долгосрочными держателями.

Таким образом, рост Liveliness для ETH показывает, что LTH активно фиксируют прибыль, а не ждут дальнейшего роста. Такое давление на продажу может помешать Ethereum достичь уровня $5 000 в ближайшее время.

Читайте также: Вот сколько могут стоить биткоин, Ethereum и Solana в I квартале 2026

Трейдеры фьючерсами оказывают сильное давление на цену

Устойчивый медвежий настрой на рынке деривативов еще больше усиливает это давление. Данные CryptoQuant показывают, что соотношение покупок и продаж ETH (taker buy-sell ratio) в основном оставалось в красной зоне большую часть прошлого месяца Это означает, что фьючерсные трейдеры продолжали уходить с рынка.

Ethereum и Taker Buy Sell Ratio.

Ethereum и метрика Taker Buy Sell Ratio. Источник: CryptoQuant

Метрика показывает баланс между объемами покупок и продаж на фьючерсном рынке. Значение больше единицы указывает на преобладание покупок, а значение ниже единицы — на преобладание продаж. Как видно на примере ETH, уже более месяца значения остаются ниже единицы. Это означает устойчивый медвежий настрой трейдеров и может еще больше задерживать рост ETH до $5 000.

Прорыв выше $5 000 зависит от восстановления спроса

На момент написания Ethereum держится выше поддержки $4 211. Если медвежьи настроения усилятся и распродажи продолжатся, токен может снова протестировать эту линию поддержки. Ее пробой чреват снижением до $3 626. Однако возобновление спроса на ETH может изменить ситуацию. В этом случае цена может попытаться преодолеть сопротивление на уровне $4 957. Если ей удастся этот прорыв, она может достичь новых максимумов выше $5 000.

анализ цены Ethereum
Анализ цены Ethereum. Источник: TradingView

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