巨鲸抛售，9月魔咒来临？继续看跌？

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-09-08Last updated on 2025-09-08

Abstract

聪明钱抛售 BTC——退出流动性还是战略重新定位？

关键要点

比特币鲸鱼储备出现 2022 年以来最大跌幅， 这是否预示着价格将发生重大波动，还是只是例行轮换？

比特币 [BTC] 8 月收盘价较开盘价 115,778 美元下跌 6.5%，结束了连续四个月的上涨势头，创下自“解放日”恐慌性抛售 (FUD) 以来的最差月度收盘价。

换句话说，在4月份8.2万美元的基数上涨了50%之后，8月份对比特币来说是第一次真正的压力测试。而且这并非偶然。聪明的投资者通过退出流动性将资本轮换出去。

1k-10k BTC 持有量的鲸鱼在 4 月至 8 月期间吸收了大约 270k BTC，到 8 月中旬，其持有量增至 362 万 BTC，而此时 BTC 的价格刚好达到 124,000 美元的当地历史最高价。

接下来发生了什么？创纪录的供应转移。

蓝色下影线（30 天变化）显示自 2022 年以来的最低读数。

截至发稿时，该群体的比特币 30 天变化量为 -112.8k BTC，这意味着鲸鱼在短短一个月内就抛售了超过 112,000 枚比特币，这是自 2022 年以来最剧烈的净抛售。

这使得BTC 8月份6.5%的下跌不仅仅是仓位调整。这表明，精明的投资者从解放后的恐慌性抛售（FUD）反弹中获利，当时比特币在不到五个月的时间内上涨了50%。

比特币触底还远吗？

从技术上讲，比特币的支撑仍然脆弱。

自7月以来，BTC每月收盘价均低于11万美元，未能抵御崩盘压力。即使7月创下历史新高——12.3万美元，8月再次挑战这一高点，也未能持续上涨。

这告诉我们，聪明的钱并没有在这里追逐顶部，这增加了 BTC 在 9 月份跳过干净的价格发现举措的可能性，除非美联储推出宽松政策，而下一次FOMC 会议仅剩 10 天。

目前，比特币 11 万美元的底线仍远未达到真正的底部。

因此，9月似乎将以看跌的基调收官。由于精明投资者的离场，BTC 可能会面临长期盘整，甚至可能出现崩盘，之后才会再次尝试价格发现。

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