Key Takeaways
Bitcoin miners faced rising costs in 2025 as profitability metrics like MEI and Puell Multiple highlighted fragile yet resilient conditions. Could capitulation trigger a slide toward $108k?
Throughout 2025, Bitcoin [BTC] recorded strong upward momentum, reaching a high of $124,457 in August. Despite these gains, miners struggled to break even, raising concerns about sustainability.
That disconnect between soaring prices and shrinking miner margins set the stage for renewed debate on mining profitability.
Profitability tightrope for Bitcoin miners
According to Alphractal founder Joao Wedson, the mining sector showed instability in 2025, even as BTC stayed elevated compared to 2017 and 2021 cycles.
The continued price surge has created significant pressure on mining companies, pushing miners’ expenditure to extreme levels.
Source: Alphractal
Amid this rising expenditure, the Mining Equilibrium Index (MEI) remained within neutral to bullish territory. And at press time, it stood near 1.06, way below its historical 2.5 but also above the 0.5 stress line.
Typically, when MEI is above 0.5, it means mining companies can fund operations without capitulating and selling their BTC. Likewise, a move above 1.0 signals significant profit margins.
Naturally, if miners’ profitability fails to fund operations, they tend to sell their Bitcoin, which could put significant pressure on the price.
The question is, will miners continue with operations despite rising costs and competition?
Selling power stays muted
Having explained that, it is important to note that BTC miners have yet to capitulate.
CryptoQuant data showed Miner Selling Power (log-scaled) stayed negative in 2025. In fact, at press time, it was -5.57, signaling limited selling activity.
Source: CryptoQuant
For those unfamiliar, a negative reading indicated that miners were holding back from sending large volumes of BTC to exchanges, choosing instead to make strategic sales to cover operational costs.
This behavior helped reduce immediate downside pressure on the market.
Why not sell, though, despite rising difficulty
Interestingly, Bitcoin miners are not selling because they simply lack the motivation to do so.
Now we look at Puell Multiple. This metric sat around 1.1, indicating miner revenue was 10% above the 365-day average.
Source: Checkonchain
What does it mean? At those levels, the data pointed to a healthy mining environment—one where miners weren’t overly pressured to sell, nor were they under significant financial stress.
Despite rising operational costs, miners were still able to generate enough income to sustain daily operations.
This allowed them to remain afloat and plan strategic asset sales rather than being forced into panic selling.
Can BTC hold its range?
According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, Bitcoin miners have largely held onto their BTC reserves, showing minimal selling activity despite rising operational costs.
This behavior has helped reduce selling pressure from miners, contributing to Bitcoin’s relative strength over the past month.
As long as miners remain profitable, widespread capitulation is unlikely.
However, if operational stress intensifies, forced selling could drive BTC down toward $108,000. Under current conditions, Bitcoin is expected to trade within the $110,000 to $112,000 range.
