Анализ цены ETH: ключевые различия между циклом 2025 года и максимумом 2021 года

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-05-03Last updated on 2025-09-04

  • Ethereum растет на 3,75% ежедневно, что свидетельствует о раннем укреплении, несмотря на недельное падение на 4,22%.
  • Скользящие средние показывают ранние бычьи тренды, в отличие от пиков цикла в ноябре 2021 года.
  • Макрофакторы и прокриптовалютная политика благоприятствуют альткоинам и потенциальному обороту капитала.

Ethereum (ETH) продемонстрировал новый рост, поднявшись на 3,75% за последние 24 часа, однако многие инвесторы по-прежнему опасаются повторения пика бычьего рынка 2021 года.

По мнению аналитика Дэна Гамбарделло, эти опасения необоснованны. Он утверждает, что современная структура рынка принципиально иная, а ключевые технические и макроэкономические индикаторы указывают на то, что Ethereum находится на ранней стадии нового бычьего цикла, а не на его завершении.

CRYPTO Quietly Loading the Cannon! This ALTCOIN SETUP Has Never Happened!

Intro 00:00
We’ve never seen this 1:50
ETH beginning of bull move 3:05
Altcoins and macro cycle 6:30 pic.twitter.com/HGCR1Orx9i

— Dan Gambardello (@cryptorecruitr) September 3, 2025

Техническая схема показывает, что цикл 2025 года отличается от цикла 2021 года

Главным аргументом против пика рынка является то, что нынешняя техническая основа Ethereum намного прочнее, чем на пике в ноябре 2021 года.

Почему текущая структура цен является более здоровой?

В отличие от параболического пика 2021 года, текущая динамика цены демонстрирует более здоровую структуру с более высокими максимумами и более высокими минимумами, с выраженными фазами перераспределения. Хотя цена близка к пику 2021 года, индикаторы импульса ETH 2025 далеки от тех же «перенапряжённых» уровней, о чём свидетельствует недавний рекордный объём транзакций в блокчейне.

По теме: Ethereum достиг рекордных максимумов, совершив 50 миллионов транзакций за месяц

Поддержка скользящих средних ETH

Скользящие средние подтверждают эту точку зрения. 20-недельная скользящая средняя недавно пересекла как 50-недельную, так и 200-недельную скользящие средние, что указывает на сильный восходящий тренд.

Это резко отличается от ситуации в ноябре 2021 года, когда Ethereum демонстрировал значительное перенапряжение и находился вблизи пика бычьего цикла. Следовательно, техническая основа указывает на ранние этапы нового восходящего движения, а не на завершение цикла.

Макросреда: попутный, а не встречный ветер

За пределами графика макроэкономическая среда сейчас гораздо более благоприятна для криптовалют, чем была в период последнего пика цикла.

Как сегодняшние макроэкономические условия соотносятся с предыдущим циклом?

В 2021 и 2022 годах рынок боролся с количественным ужесточением и ростом процентных ставок. Сегодня ожидается, что Федеральная резервная система начнет снижать ставки, что увеличит ликвидность и, как правило, является важным фактором поддержки рисковых активов, таких как криптовалюты.

Прогноз регулятора на 2025 год благоприятствует криптовалютам

Нормативно-правовая среда также улучшается. Законодательство, поддерживающее криптовалюты, такое как Закон о прозрачности, и продолжающееся одобрение спотовых ETF создают гораздо более благоприятный фон для потенциального перетока капитала из биткоина в Ethereum и другие альткоины.

По теме: Прогноз цены Ethereum (ETH): продажа Foundation разжигает рыночные дебаты

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