Эксперт оценил поведения долгосрочных держателей BTC и предсказал рост цены актива до $150 000

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-06-18Last updated on 2025-08-19

Аналитический отчет эксперта под псевдонимом PelinayPA показал, что метрика поведения долгосрочных держателей (LTH) продолжает оставаться ключевым индикатором для определения фаз рынка. Сигналы на графике включают прибыль/убыток относительно себестоимости, активность трат и периоды интенсивных продаж или фиксации убытков. Эти данные позволяют оценить вероятные пики и минимумы текущего цикла.

По словам исследователя, исторический анализ демонстрирует повторяющийся паттерн. В 2017–2018 годах фиксация прибыли на уровне 1000% предвосхитила рыночный пик, за которым последовали убытки и подтверждение локального дна. Аналогичные сценарии наблюдались в 2020–2021 годах, когда рост продаж со стороны LTH совпал с локальными вершинами, а сигналы убытков — с формированием минимума рынка.

В 2022–2023 годах активные продажи в диапазоне $15 000–$20 000 сопровождались серией сигналов bottom alert. Эти метки совпали с формированием минимальных цен перед фазой восстановления. Такое положение дел подтвердило ценность индикатора как долгосрочного инструмента для оценки циклов рынка.

«Текущая ситуация в 2024–2025 году отличается умеренностью. Несмотря на приближение к историческим максимумам, продажи LTH остаются под контролем. Цена BTC находится в диапазоне 150%–350% прибыли относительно себестоимости, что сохраняет потенциал движения в зону $124 000–$178 000. Однако риски возрастают по мере приближения к уровню +500%», — заявил аналитик.

Краткосрочный прогноз указывает на сохранение диапазонной динамики, где умеренное давление со стороны долгосрочных держателей может сдерживать резкий рост. Среднесрочный прогноз на конец 2025 года допускает формирование рыночного пика выше $150 000 при усилении активности продаж. До 2026 года, отсутствие новых сигналов фиксации убытков указывает на то, что рынок пока не перешел в фазу полноценного медвежьего цикла.

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