火星周报 | 比特币仍有望在2026年前涨至15万美元

marsbitPublished on 2025-08-16Last updated on 2025-08-17

渣打银行

以太坊储备公司及各ETF累计持币量突破1000万枚

8 月 17 日，据 strategicethreserve.xyz 数据，当前以太坊储备公司及各 ETH 现货 ETF 持有量分别占总供应量的 3.06% 和 5.42%，累计持币量达 1026 万枚 ETH，总占比已超以太坊总供应量 8.4%。

渣打银行：挪威主权基金 Q2 加仓比特币 83%

据 The Block 报道，渣打银行分析师 Geoffrey Kendrick 披露，挪威银行投资管理公司（Norges Bank Investment Management）Q2 比特币相关持仓激增 83%（从 6, 200 至 11,400 BTC ），主要通过增持 MicroStrategy 股票实现。挪威银行投资管理公司又称挪威政府全球养老基金，是全球最大的主权财富基金，管理着 1.7 万亿美元的资产。

Canary Capital CEO 预测：比特币年内冲 15 万美元，以太坊恐难续辉煌

据 Decrypt 报道， Canary Capital 首席执行官 Steven McClurg 在接受 CNBC 采访时表示，比特币在今年有超过 50% 的可能性将在 2024 年底前涨至 15 万美元，Steven McClurg 将此次上涨归因于 ETF 需求的增长以及包括主权财富基金、养老金和企业债券在内的机构买家群体的扩大。 但他看衰以太坊前景，认为其将被 Solana 等新兴公链取代。分析师 Greg Magadini 则指出以太坊开发者生态优势难被超越，预计 ETH / BTC 汇率将回升至7%。

某鲸鱼将逾1万枚ETH转入CEX，质押1.5年浮盈超2068万美元

8 月 17 日，据余烬监测，某鲸鱼在过去一年半中流动性质押 1 万枚 ETH，昨天赎回 10,564 枚 (含 564 枚利息)，在 2 小时前其将 10,819 枚 ETH (约 4779 万美元) 转入 Kraken。 在此期间，ETH 本身升值 1820 万美元，质押利息达 248 万美元。

某鲸鱼向 Hyperliquid 存入 1938 万枚 USDC 并持续加仓 HYPE

据 Lookonchain 监测，某鲸鱼正加仓 HYPE，在过去 5 小时内，其又向 Hyperliquid 存入 1938 万枚 USDC 用于购买更多 HYPE。

分析：比特币仍有望在2026年前涨至15万美元

8 月 16 日，本周比特币创下新高，价格突破 12.3 万美元，超过 7 月份的峰值。其上涨动能来自机构买入、企业财政配置、美国政策支持以及主权国家层面的收益不断积累。这一走势进一步强化了全球金融咨询巨头 deVere Group 的预测：比特币可能在 2025 年底前涨至 15 万美元。 作为全球最大加密货币，比特币自年初以来已上涨超 31%，相较于 4 月的市场低点上涨约 60%。驱动本轮上涨的因素包括： · 美国现货比特币 ETF 前所未有的资金流入； · 多家大型上市公司将比特币纳入资产负债表； · 特朗普政府的比特币友好政策； · 各国政府持有比特币带来的盈利。 deVere 集团创始人兼首席执行官 Nigel Green 表示，目前多股强劲力量正在汇聚，推动比特币不断刷新纪录：「机构资本正通过现货 ETF 以创纪录的规模流入。上市公司将比特币视为战略储备资产。白宫正在积极支持这一资产类别。主权国家的比特币投资已经获利。这些并不是孤立事件，而是全球金融体系深层次的系统性转变的一部分。」

真人版FX战士！日本主播All in二元期权，3万翻5倍→15万→0元

日本直播主"七原君"用仅剩的3万日元玩二元期权（类似赌博的短线金融衍生品），第一次5分钟就赚到15.5万日元，但第二次全赔光，直播中崩溃哀嚎。这种高波动投资虽刺激，但本质是负期望值的赌博，加密货币圈类似的"交易娱乐化"现象也引发争议。案例警示赌博风险，提醒理性投资。

陷入困境的公司，为何纷纷大举购买比特币？

乔治·卡拉姆的半导体公司Sequans Communications受比特币热潮影响，筹集3.84亿美元购买比特币后股价飙升160%。这一趋势由迈克尔·塞勒等比特币布道者推动，全球154家上市公司已筹集近千亿美元投资加密货币。尽管股价短期暴涨，但市场担忧加密货币价格下跌可能导致系统性风险，类似互联网泡沫的破裂。部分公司通过举债购币，若币价崩盘将面临偿债危机。投资者通过这类"加密货币金库公司"间接持有数字资产，但行业高波动性使长期可持续性存疑。

谷歌的野心：从 AI 算力基建到 Crypto

谷歌加速布局AI与加密货币领域，通过AI云平台Fluidstack与比特币矿企TeraWulf达成合作，获得其8%股权并担保18亿美元项目融资，以获取高性能计算资源。同时，Google Play调整加密货币应用政策，要求交易所和托管钱包合规运营，但豁免非托管钱包。此外，谷歌正与多家公司洽谈稳定币整合，探索支付优化。这一系列动作显示谷歌正深度介入AI计算与加密生态，平衡创新与合规。

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