Solana暴跌背后:恐慌只是表面,真正的大戏还没开始

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-08-04Last updated on 2025-08-04

Abstract

链上数据显示,即使 SOL 的价格下跌,也会出现一波长期积累的浪潮。

关键要点

尽管近期 Solana 价格下跌,但长期持有者仍在加倍押注。数据显示,SOL 可能已接近局部底部。

Solana [SOL] 的走势可能正在下滑,但长期持有者显然并未察觉。他们没有恐慌性抛售,而是满怀信心地持续增持。

随着最近大多数卖家锁定损失,最糟糕的情况可能已经过去。

随着价格下跌,长期持有者增持

Solana 近期的价格下跌并没有吓到它的长期持有者。

相反,Glassnode 数据显示,自 7 月 30 日以来,Hodler 净头寸变化激增 102%,这表明经验丰富的投资者充满信心。

该指标反映长期参与者30天的持股净变化。

自然,这种飙升往往预示着增持。尽管价格下跌,但越来越多的加密货币正在进入冷钱包,这暗示着战略性持仓,而非恐慌性抛售。

投降区在望

SOL 的已实现盈亏比在 8 月 2 日暴跌至 0.15,为 30 天以来的最低水平。

该数据显示,最近大多数卖家都亏损出局。从历史上看,这种投降式的抛售通常发生在周期底部附近。

随着愿意低价出售股票的持有者减少,下行压力可能会减轻。

如果过去的模式成立,这可能标志着下跌的最后阶段,为 SOL 的稳定和最终在减少抛售的推动下反弹奠定基础。

势头放缓,但买家正在关注

在经历了一连串惨淡的下跌之后,SOL 终于显示出复苏的迹象。

尽管该资产在165美元下方挣扎,但最新的日线图暗示可能出现停顿。RSI为41.65,接近超卖区域,因此下行能量可能即将耗尽。

与此同时,OBV 在稳步下降之后趋于平稳,因此销售量正在失去动力。

虽然现在说逆转还为时过早,但图表显示卖家已经疲倦,情绪的转变可能很快就会为反弹打开大门。

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